Oregon wins 75% of the time
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They have allegedly played this game already at least four times, and the Oregon ducks have won at least three of them. Amazing!
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Bama had a .01 win probability on 4th and goal from the 31
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Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
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If UW had any honor they’d send a rep down to Eugene & formally forfeit the game. If it’s truly Covid, then they can’t play next week for the conference championship anyway
But what can you expect from a program that is everything that is wrong about college football.
They're fighting for clicks. We're fighting for wins.
Yadda yadda
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I don't know if it's calculated the same way once the game starts, but it looks like after the opening kickoff, Oregon had a 53.6% win probability which peaked late in the fourth at 96.6%.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
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It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row. -
UW was favored last game but that faggy predictor still had oregon in the 60-70 percentile in OCT.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
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In order for Oregon to win this game, something will have to happen that hasn't happened under these two coaches before.
Either Lanning, and Oregon win a close, hard fought, tight game against a team that is not Texas Tech, which I don't think has really ever happened.
Or, Deboner has to get blown out, which has definitely never happened here.
So. EWIWBI. -
FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
FPI is twash as fuck -
Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.whatshouldicareabout said:
FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
FPI is twash as fuck -
FPI is always impressed by starsWoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
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Blo Dix has a very punchable face
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I'm glad to know the game has already been played and I can start booking my tickets for Pasadena. Thanks for showing up, guysm!
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FPI is used for theoretical games and bettingbisonduck said:
Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.whatshouldicareabout said:
FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
FPI is twash as fuck
SOR is used by the committee for ranking teams
They are not the same -
Would fit in well in the Hitler Youth. Pretty sure I saw him punch a pro-Israel protester last week!Swaye said:Blo Dix has a very punchable face
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Swaye said:
Blo Dix has a very punchable face
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You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.YellowSnow said:
It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.
My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1! -
You really think they're using that specific metric? FPI is predictive and SOR is static look at resume. However, the SOR and committee rankings are not correlated exactly. ESPN's SOR is how the average top 25 team would fair against the same schedule.whatshouldicareabout said:
FPI is used for theoretical games and bettingbisonduck said:
Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.whatshouldicareabout said:
FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
FPI is twash as fuck
SOR is used by the committee for ranking teams
They are not the same -
I'm severely torn between the smoke weed and talk shit side of my brain and the objective side of my brain.dannarc said:
You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.YellowSnow said:
It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.
My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1!
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I have objectively expected UW to win every game this year. I objectively expect them to lose this one, though.YellowSnow said:
I'm severely torn between the smoke weed and talk shit side of my brain and the objective side of my brain.dannarc said:
You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.YellowSnow said:
It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.
My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1! -
In boner I trust. This dude has some weird magic to him.BleachedAnusDawg said:
I have objectively expected UW to win every game this year. I objectively expect them to lose this one, though.YellowSnow said:
I'm severely torn between the smoke weed and talk shit side of my brain and the objective side of my brain.dannarc said:
You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.YellowSnow said:
It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.
My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1! -
Would be a damn shame if Texas made it in over your fanbaseDucksFC said:I'm glad to know the game has already been played and I can start booking my tickets for Pasadena. Thanks for showing up, guysm!
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More worried about short rest week and emotional let down after what turned into a TUFF apple cup after an eternity of TUFF games.dannarc said:
You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.YellowSnow said:
It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.
My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1!
The fighting Dannings lucked out and what should have been a TUFF beav had their coach sell the couch. Plus a day of rest and a Friday game (Rest in Piss Pac12 scheduling)
Will the Huskies be out of gas or used to being #battletested?
Will the Ducks be tanned rested and ready or turn out to be front running faggots?
I hear the Ducks are BALANCED but UW matches up with them well at key talent positions.
I tend to think the injury situations and extra rest will be more impactful than a lot of other things since these teams have shown to be commiserate in Talent.
For both teams this is a date with destiny to define an era. Don't be a faggot and embrace that the stakes are higher than ever. "We were built for this." -
It was basically a pick 'em in Seattle. That wasn't wrong.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
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A minus 3 line at home means the teams are regarded equally. Its the same as a pickem on a neutral field.flatus said:
It was basically a pick 'em in Seattle. That wasn't wrong.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
edit: i guess thats what you were saying but im here to point out why you are wrong anyway -
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It did not. It was 53.6%, as stated already by another poaster. Vegas had UW -3.LaZoris said:
UW was favored last game but that faggy predictor still had oregon in the 60-70 percentile in OCT.WoolleyDoog said:Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.
The game was decided on a missed FG, so it's silly to use the last game as an example of how fucked up the predictor is.
I hope the UW team isn't as emotional about the spread and FPI predictor as you guys are. I'd rather be an underdog in this one, tbh.
