Duck Fans Feeling Confident

This thread reaching FBA territory.

Nah, the plug was pulled on the patient by the second page. This is ghost shit now.

So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

These ideas are not mutually exclusive.

Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.

Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.

Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.

UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard

Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.

Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

#battletested

We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

Do you have any clue how any of this works?

Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.

Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

Try again dipshit.

Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.

I see you edited in another stupid statement.

We beat both of those teams too.

Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.

I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.

And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

we

beat

both

of

those

teams.

Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.

If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.

10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.

Based on?

I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.

I don't see any reason that would be the case

Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?

You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.

So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

These ideas are not mutually exclusive.

Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.

Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.

Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.

UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard

Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.

Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

#battletested

We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

Do you have any clue how any of this works?

Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.

Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

Try again dipshit.

Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.

I see you edited in another stupid statement.

We beat both of those teams too.

Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.

I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.

And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

we

beat

both

of

those

teams.

Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.

If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.

10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.

Based on?

I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.

I don't see any reason that would be the case

Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?

You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.

I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs

honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.

I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs

honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.

I have been compared to a $.99 ChatGPT app (on the spectrum) to Cousin Eddie now. It's not like a care but the perception varies greatly.

So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

These ideas are not mutually exclusive.

Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.

Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.

Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.

UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard

Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.

Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

#battletested

We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

Do you have any clue how any of this works?

Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.

Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

Try again dipshit.

Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.

I see you edited in another stupid statement.

We beat both of those teams too.

Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.

I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.

And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

we

beat

both

of

those

teams.

Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.

If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.

10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.

Based on?

I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.

I don't see any reason that would be the case

Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?

You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.

No you are 100% a disphit for thinking Oregon (hypothetically) smashing Oregon State is going to hurt UW's SOR

So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

These ideas are not mutually exclusive.

Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.

Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.

Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.

UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard

Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.

Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

#battletested

We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

Do you have any clue how any of this works?

Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.

Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

Try again dipshit.

Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.

I see you edited in another stupid statement.

We beat both of those teams too.

Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.

I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.

And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

we

beat

both

of

those

teams.

Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.

If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.

10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.

Based on?

I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.

I don't see any reason that would be the case

Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?

You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.

No you are 100% a disphit for thinking Oregon (hypothetically) smashing Oregon State is going to hurt UW's SOR

And you have provided zero quantitative basis for this except an argument that the relationship is equal.

Win probability has two limits - 0% and 100%, which means the relationship has to be weighted.

Also, in game win probability is somehow factored into this metric. The Beavers getting "smashed" by the Ducks would skew the Beavers win probability against other top 25 teams more.

Burn this thread

Absolutely not. Just burn bisonduck.

Guy with the 0-2 team demands “quantitative statistics.”

Guy with the 0-2 team demands “quantitative statistics.”

The metric in of itself supports the narrative of "just win baby," which is basically the narrative told on this bored to justify below average performance against mediocre teams. To make my point again, Oregon throttling Oregon State will make the win look more mediocre.

Can we kill this thread?

Jesus guys it is not time for hate week 2.0. Let’s beat the cougs and capybaras first then we can talk all the shit we want. Otherwise we are just pigs rolling in our own shit

Bump. Someone please close this thread

Oregon is going to win by 21 against the Beavs. Jonathan Smith just gave an exit interview for a presser.

4th season the Huskies have ended this season. Could be 5 in 10 days. LIPO.

Oh, you got the good beavs?

#TooMuchRain

We got everyone’s best shot this year, including the game that definitely, never, ever happened on October 14th in Seattle.

It has nothing to do with dropped passes or inaccurate passes?

I haven’t obsessed over every single play, of every single Husky game, like every single Duck fan that posts here. I don’t have an inferiority complex. If I did, I’d be on an Oregon site pissing my pants like all of you do here, every single day.

Go hug your family on Thursday before you end up like Bob.

Sure. You could’ve tuned in sparingly to notice it.

#TooMuchRain

Holy shit, you're bad at this.

I am not #BattleTested.

No, you're just retarded

I am not feeling my best. I got the crud, my ribs hurt, and it’s raining.

Oh no, we're 11-0 and the #4 team in the cuntry! Fuck fuck fuck

I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs

honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.

I have been compared to a $.99 ChatGPT app (on the spectrum) to Cousin Eddie now. It's not like a care but the perception varies greatly.

Shoutout me

I liked you more when you just drooled over strained ligaments and bone bruises. And that's saying alot

I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs

honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.

I have been compared to a $.99 ChatGPT app (on the spectrum) to Cousin Eddie now. It's not like a care but the perception varies greatly.

You really need to step your game up.

I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs

honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.

I have been compared to a $.99 ChatGPT app (on the spectrum) to Cousin Eddie now. It's not like a care but the perception varies greatly.

You really need to step your game up.

LMAO

This thread started with several poasts pointing out the deficiencies in the duck’s reasoning, and the retort was 46 poasts with #battletested like that was some kind of smart and funny response.

Down syndrome is bad enough, but when paired with autism and cough syrup, it’s just sad.

But kinda fun to watch.

New bored motto?

Burn this thread

I’m kind of enjoying watching dipshit @bisonduck go from haha you’re all idiots to please help me understand why I’m so dumb over the course of 11+ pages.

Burn this thread

I’m kind of enjoying watching dipshit @bisonduck go from haha you’re all idiots to please help me understand why I’m so dumb over the course of 11+ pages.

If I am being dumb, and you explain it to me, I will change my mind. I still think the battle tested theory is irrelevant for our matchup.

I know this bored is all about inside jokes and keeping it light. I am self-aware to know I am socially awkward. I just don’t care enough.