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Duck Fans Feeling Confident

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  • bisonduck
    bisonduck Member Posts: 715
    The PAC 12 looked really top heavy and not so much as the season goes along. I mean maybe Oregon going from 10 to 11 is weighted the most?
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    EwaDawg said:

    Canadawg said:

    bisonduck said:

    Sources said:

    bisonduck said:

    TheHB said:

    bisonduck said:

    FireCohen said:

    So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

    I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

    I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

    These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
    Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

    The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

    It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

    If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
    Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

    You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
    Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

    So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.
    UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard
    Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.
    Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

    #battletested
    We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

    Do you have any clue how any of this works?
    Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

    My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
    Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

    Try again dipshit.
    Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

    Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
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  • bisonduck
    bisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    EwaDawg said:

    Canadawg said:

    bisonduck said:

    Sources said:

    bisonduck said:

    TheHB said:

    bisonduck said:

    FireCohen said:

    So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

    I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

    I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

    These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
    Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

    The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

    It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

    If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
    Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

    You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
    Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

    So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.
    UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard
    Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.
    Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

    #battletested
    We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

    Do you have any clue how any of this works?
    Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

    My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
    Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

    Try again dipshit.
    Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

    Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    EwaDawg said:

    Canadawg said:

    bisonduck said:

    Sources said:

    bisonduck said:

    TheHB said:

    bisonduck said:

    FireCohen said:

    So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

    I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

    I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

    These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
    Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

    The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

    It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

    If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
    Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

    You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
    Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

    So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.
    UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard
    Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.
    Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

    #battletested
    We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

    Do you have any clue how any of this works?
    Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

    My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
    Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

    Try again dipshit.
    Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

    Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
    Based on?
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  • bisonduck
    bisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    EwaDawg said:

    Canadawg said:

    bisonduck said:

    Sources said:

    bisonduck said:

    TheHB said:

    bisonduck said:

    FireCohen said:

    So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

    I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

    I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

    These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
    Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

    The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

    It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

    If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
    Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

    You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
    Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

    So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.
    UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard
    Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.
    Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

    #battletested
    We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

    Do you have any clue how any of this works?
    Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

    My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
    Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

    Try again dipshit.
    Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

    Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
    Based on?
    I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    dnc said:

    bisonduck said:

    EwaDawg said:

    Canadawg said:

    bisonduck said:

    Sources said:

    bisonduck said:

    TheHB said:

    bisonduck said:

    FireCohen said:

    So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times

    I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.

    I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.

    These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
    Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.

    The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.

    It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.

    If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
    Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.

    You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
    Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)

    So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.
    UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heard
    Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.
    Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.

    #battletested
    We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.

    Do you have any clue how any of this works?
    Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.

    My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
    Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."

    Try again dipshit.
    Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?

    Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
    Based on?
    I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.
    I don't see any reason that would be the case
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