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Duck Fans Feeling Confident
Comments
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Nah, the plug was pulled on the patient by the second page. This is ghost shit now.biak1 said:This thread reaching FBA territory.
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Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?dnc said:
I don't see any reason that would be the casebisonduck said:
I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.dnc said:
Based on?bisonduck said:
10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.dnc said:
If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.bisonduck said:
Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.dnc said:
And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....bisonduck said:
I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.dnc said:
I see you edited in another stupid statement.bisonduck said:
Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?dnc said:
Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."bisonduck said:
Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.dnc said:
We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.bisonduck said:
Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.EwaDawg said:
Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.Canadawg said:
UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heardbisonduck said:
So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.Sources said:
Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)bisonduck said:
Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.TheHB said:
Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.bisonduck said:
I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.FireCohen said:So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times
I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.
These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.
It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.
If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
#battletested
Do you have any clue how any of this works?
My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
Try again dipshit.
Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
We beat both of those teams too.
Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
we
beat
both
of
those
teams.
You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric. -
bisonduck said:
Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?dnc said:
I don't see any reason that would be the casebisonduck said:
I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.dnc said:
Based on?bisonduck said:
10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.dnc said:
If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.bisonduck said:
Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.dnc said:
And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....bisonduck said:
I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.dnc said:
I see you edited in another stupid statement.bisonduck said:
Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?dnc said:
Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."bisonduck said:
Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.dnc said:
We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.bisonduck said:
Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.EwaDawg said:
Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.Canadawg said:
UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heardbisonduck said:
So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.Sources said:
Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)bisonduck said:
Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.TheHB said:
Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.bisonduck said:
I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.FireCohen said:So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times
I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.
These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.
It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.
If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
#battletested
Do you have any clue how any of this works?
My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
Try again dipshit.
Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
We beat both of those teams too.
Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
we
beat
both
of
those
teams.
You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.
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honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.Sources said:I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs
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I have been compared to a $.99 ChatGPT app (on the spectrum) to Cousin Eddie now. It's not like a care but the perception varies greatly.DucksFC said:
honestly I feel sacrificing him will improve our? chances of winning. he's the fucking Cousin Eddie of Quooks.Sources said:I suggest sacrificing @bisonduck on Friday as tribute to the beavs
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No you are 100% a disphit for thinking Oregon (hypothetically) smashing Oregon State is going to hurt UW's SORbisonduck said:
Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?dnc said:
I don't see any reason that would be the casebisonduck said:
I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.dnc said:
Based on?bisonduck said:
10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.dnc said:
If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.bisonduck said:
Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.dnc said:
And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....bisonduck said:
I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.dnc said:
I see you edited in another stupid statement.bisonduck said:
Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?dnc said:
Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."bisonduck said:
Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.dnc said:
We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.bisonduck said:
Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.EwaDawg said:
Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.Canadawg said:
UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heardbisonduck said:
So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.Sources said:
Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)bisonduck said:
Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.TheHB said:
Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.bisonduck said:
I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.FireCohen said:So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times
I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.
These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.
It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.
If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
#battletested
Do you have any clue how any of this works?
My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
Try again dipshit.
Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
We beat both of those teams too.
Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
we
beat
both
of
those
teams.
You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric. -
And you have provided zero quantitative basis for this except an argument that the relationship is equal.dnc said:
No you are 100% a disphit for thinking Oregon (hypothetically) smashing Oregon State is going to hurt UW's SORbisonduck said:
Think of it from a common sense standpoint. Is it really that much more difficult to beat a 4-8 vs 5-7 team if you are in the top 25?dnc said:
I don't see any reason that would be the casebisonduck said:
I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.dnc said:
Based on?bisonduck said:
10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.dnc said:
If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.bisonduck said:
Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.dnc said:
And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....bisonduck said:
I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.dnc said:
I see you edited in another stupid statement.bisonduck said:
Explain to me how it doesn’t weaken your record when there aren’t as many potential losses on your schedule?dnc said:
Sincerely "your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet."bisonduck said:
Oregon hasn’t dipshit. My point wasn’t that yours will dip but the gap will narrow.dnc said:
We beat both of those teams, the result of that game will have literally zero impact on our strength of record.bisonduck said:
Oregon is nine and your SOR will look worse after Oregon smashes some Beavlet.EwaDawg said:
Yep. Even for BisonDuck that was fucking stupid.Canadawg said:
UW is literally #1 in SOR. Possibly the most retarded take I've ever heardbisonduck said:
So, this battle tested theory is based on a playing OSU at home vs away since our last game. You got Arizona before our last game and when they didn't look as strong.Sources said:
Beav and Arizona (both on the road) vs Colorado and WSU (both at home for duckies)bisonduck said:
Our league isn't good outside of UW and Oregon. How is your schedule any harder? Sure, you got Arizona vs Colorado before our first game.TheHB said:
Disagree that it's clear UW has regressed. UW has played a difficult schedule, and I would say its defense is better prepared today than it was when it played Oregon. The offense is fine. Running game is better today than it was when UW played Oregon. Passing game is still strong, as well.bisonduck said:
I am not sure why people cannot tip the cap to Penix in that game and UW's defense for coming up strong in that game.FireCohen said:So Oregon did not lose they just ran out of time both times
I also cannot understand why UW fans have this persecution complex about Oregon fans and nation media confidence in a rematch. It's clear that UW has regressed and Oregon progressed. That's not to say that UW is going to get punked but the spread looks like it would be -7.5 in a rematch in Vegas. It might even be more after the Oregon State game.
These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
The "persecution" you speak of is all about the fact that Oregon fans and national media are so certain about this regression. I really hope the duck team thinks UW has regressed. In reality, the team is much tougher and battle-tested than it was the first time the teams played.
It's one thing to win a bunch of games 50-14, which is nice. But the first time you find yourself down a few points, that's when the strong find out what they're all about. Ducks didn't handle it well the last time. UW has.
If the spread is -7.5 in favor of Oregon, that's easy money for UW.
You are not more battle tested. You just have played close games that shouldn't have been close.
#battletested
Do you have any clue how any of this works?
My argument is we’ve had almost the exact schedule and even more so after we played last.
Try again dipshit.
Watch ASU pull a rabbit out of the hat too.
We beat both of those teams too.
Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
we
beat
both
of
those
teams.
You came on here and acted like I was a dipshit but now it sounds like you really don't understand the metric either, and assumed all else is equal when this is an advanced metric.
Win probability has two limits - 0% and 100%, which means the relationship has to be weighted.
Also, in game win probability is somehow factored into this metric. The Beavers getting "smashed" by the Ducks would skew the Beavers win probability against other top 25 teams more. -
Absolutely not. Just burn bisonduck.79smoothdawg said:Burn this thread
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Guy with the 0-2 team demands “quantitative statistics.”
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The metric in of itself supports the narrative of "just win baby," which is basically the narrative told on this bored to justify below average performance against mediocre teams. To make my point again, Oregon throttling Oregon State will make the win look more mediocre.Quietcowskee said:Guy with the 0-2 team demands “quantitative statistics.”
