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Duck Fans Feeling Confident

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  • GreenRiverGatorzGreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    dnc said:

    So much for "My point wasn't that yours will dip but the gap will narrow".

    You actually are retarded enough to think Oregon blasting Oregon State would hurt our SOR.

    The inputs are the same either way. The game will add a victory in our SOR and a loss in our SOR. Just like every other team's SOR when two teams they beat play one another. Our SOR will be exactly the same whether you blast Oregon State or Oregon State plungers you or you win a close one or you miss a FG as time expires to beat Oregon State 33-36. The result of the game is completely irrelevant to our SOR.

    You clearly don't know how SOR works or you wouldn't have suggested it would, then backtracked, then tried to act like it would again.
    Ok yeah but what @bisonduck really meant to say is that the gap will narrow once Oregon's SOR improves!
  • bisonduckbisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    I see you edited in another stupid statement.

    We beat both of those teams too.

    Next time don't discuss metrics you clearly don't understand.
    I read the metric. It’s the probability that another team in the top 25 team would have the same record.

    Firstly, the Beavers losing changes the top 25. You’re acting like all else is equal. It changes the entire composite.
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    The only Pac12 rivalry game this weekend that could affect UW's SOR is Colorado-Utah since UW didn't play Colorado but did play Utah. If Utah wins that's good for us, if Colorado wins it's bad for us.

    The only other Pac12 related game that matters for UW is ND-Stanford so UW's SOR will almost assuredly take a small hit from that game. As will Oregon's.
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    edited November 2023
    At this point in the season SOR for undefeated teams is almost locked in because the vast majority of everyone's opponents are playing other teams they have already beaten. There are some small conference game variations (like ND-Stanford and Utah-Colorado for UW) and obviously the non conference opponents are unlikely to be playing someone you already beat.

    The only thing that can drastically affect the SOR of UW, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia and FSU at this point vis a vis one another is taking an L. The vast vast majority of the data is already baked in at this point.

    Edit: I left out one thing - a significant win can still affect things. The winner of Ohio State Michigan will get a nice bump. The others don't face anyone this weekend that's significant enough to give them a bump. And the conference championship games will mostly wash out, though the B1G champ will get less of a bump than the others if it's Michigan/Ohio State.
  • LawDawg1LawDawg1 Member Posts: 3,935
    dnc said:

    At this point in the season SOR for undefeated teams is almost locked in because the vast majority of everyone's opponents are playing other teams they have already beaten. There are some small conference game variations (like ND-Stanford and Utah-Colorado for UW) and obviously the non conference opponents are unlikely to be playing someone you already beat.

    The only thing that can drastically affect the SOR of UW, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia and FSU at this point vis a vis one another is taking an L. The vast vast majority of the data is already baked in at this point.

    You might need to explain this to him again after he posts 3 more times on the issue.
  • bisonduckbisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    And the win over Oregon gets that much stronger. Or if Beav wins the Oregon W takes a hit but the Beav W gets stronger. The overall impact of the game in our SOR is the same regardless of the specifics of what happens in the game, because, and I'll type it slowly this time....

    we

    beat

    both

    of

    those

    teams.
    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
  • bisonduckbisonduck Member Posts: 715
    The PAC 12 looked really top heavy and not so much as the season goes along. I mean maybe Oregon going from 10 to 11 is weighted the most?
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    bisonduck said:

    Again, I still don't understand the value of the metric if the probability changes 1 to 1. I would think that top heavy teams losing increases the probability of another top 25 outside of our league going through the the league unscathed. I would think that Arizona State going to 4 wins and Arizona not getting win 9 does not have a 1-to-1 effect.
    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
  • bisonduckbisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    If that's your reasoning why would you think Oregon beating Oregon State would be bad for us? The better team winning would be advantageous, not a negative.
    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    bisonduck said:

    10-2 and 9-3 is more difficult than 11-1 and 8-4.
    Based on?
  • bisonduckbisonduck Member Posts: 715
    dnc said:

    Based on?
    I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    bisonduck said:

    I would think that the jump from 8 to 9 would be weighted more than the jump from 10 to 11. Weighting would be the highest from 7-10.
    I don't see any reason that would be the case
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