$20M base annual rights from Apple for the duration of the contract ($240M total at 12 programs)
Subscription fee of $1/qtr depending on certain key subscriber thresholds met
Newbies will receive a half of their share of related revenue over the duration of the contract
A pool of money ($70M) will be leveraged by the conference as a whole to cover the Comcast related debt and the estimated related buyouts of the newbies
Key Assumptions that I'm making in the calculation:
Assuming an average subscriber base at between 20M-30M average annual subscribers and that that threshold is maintained throughout the duration of the agreement (will quantify what the impact of going up/down a level is)
Assuming that the newbies will give up half of their share of both the $20M base annual rights AND the subscriber contribution bonus from Apple
Scenarios run with adding 3 teams (assumes Arizona stays) and 4 teams (assumes Arizona goes to the Big12 as expected)
There are 3 basic tranches of payments: Big Fish (UW/Ore/Utah), remaining PAC teams, and Newbies
The basic financial formula is as follows:
Base Rights Fee + Subscriber Bonus +/- "Newcomer Tax" = Recurring Annual Revenue over life of contract
There are way too many variables that would need to align for this to be close to a mediocre deal for UW. If UW signs off on this we? are screwed if the auto-berth goes away.
The assumptions about tiers for payouts, is that actually being reported as in the deal? Or is this just an assumption being made based on what other conferences have done? I would be mildly surprised if the west coast institutions have it in them to create haves and have nots given the culture of the campuses.
If UW can pull $40 mil per year I would take it with an escape clause after 2-3 years to align with a move to the Big 10. That $40 mil number seems to be based on wildly optimistic subscriber counts, though. No way in hell 20 million people are signing up for streaming.
The simple fact is I can load up the cloud with all the great college football I want or just spin the dial without some fucking app and see all the teams that still care
The Pacific Coast League is even more retarded than thought if this is the answer
One interesting thing is this would be devastating to UW pac12 hoops. I know this is far down the totem pole of things to care about. Just interesting that fox and espn would basically be out of the west coast college hoops business minus some Gonzaga games. No way Arizona stays imo.
One interesting thing is this would be devastating to pac12 hoops. I know this is far down the totem pole of things to care about. Just interesting that fox and espn would basically be out of the west coast college hoops business minus some Gonzaga games. No way Arizona stays imo.
In the end this is why I’ve never thought Arizona would stay in the PAC as without UCLA around it’s a huge gap for hoops in perception
Somebody needs to grab their balls and make the right move
The simple fact is I can load up the cloud with all the great college football I want or just spin the dial without some fucking app and see all the teams that still care
The Pacific Coast League is even more retarded than thought if this is the answer
Imagine not being able to turn on your regular cable TV programing, and not being able to watch the Huskies.
I just read that Apple TV has 25 million subscribers. You think between 80 and 120% of them are going to pay to watch the PAC Fucking 12?
Yep … biggest elephant in the room
There are ways to increase those numbers … for example T-Mobile customers were given the option to get the MLS package for free (similar to what they do for MLB)
$20M base annual rights from Apple for the duration of the contract ($240M total at 12 programs)
Subscription fee of $1/qtr depending on certain key subscriber thresholds met
Newbies will receive a half of their share of related revenue over the duration of the contract
A pool of money ($70M) will be leveraged by the conference as a whole to cover the Comcast related debt and the estimated related buyouts of the newbies
Key Assumptions that I'm making in the calculation:
Assuming an average subscriber base at between 20M-30M average annual subscribers and that that threshold is maintained throughout the duration of the agreement (will quantify what the impact of going up/down a level is)
Assuming that the newbies will give up half of their share of both the $20M base annual rights AND the subscriber contribution bonus from Apple
Scenarios run with adding 3 teams (assumes Arizona stays) and 4 teams (assumes Arizona goes to the Big12 as expected)
There are 3 basic tranches of payments: Big Fish (UW/Ore/Utah), remaining PAC teams, and Newbies
The basic financial formula is as follows:
Base Rights Fee + Subscriber Bonus +/- "Newcomer Tax" = Recurring Annual Revenue over life of contract
There are way too many variables that would need to align for this to be close to a mediocre deal for UW. If UW signs off on this we? are screwed if the auto-berth goes away.
The assumptions about tiers for payouts, is that actually being reported as in the deal? Or is this just an assumption being made based on what other conferences have done? I would be mildly surprised if the west coast institutions have it in them to create haves and have nots given the culture of the campuses.
If UW can pull $40 mil per year I would take it with an escape clause after 2-3 years to align with a move to the Big 10. That $40 mil number seems to be based on wildly optimistic subscriber counts, though. No way in hell 20 million people are signing up for streaming.
Agree that the subscriber numbers are a wild variable that is a massive leap of faith
The split of the Newbie revenue was embedded and is largely consistent with what others have gone through … the graduated schedule is not great for UW
I’d be SHOCKED if the numbers aren’t shown in a manner that highlights the ability for UW and Oregon to make more than the B12 number …
Now that number may include pie in the sky assumptions that we saw before with the PAC Network …
Big takeaway is that the path to make a bad decision is coming clear
$20M base annual rights from Apple for the duration of the contract ($240M total at 12 programs)
Subscription fee of $1/qtr depending on certain key subscriber thresholds met
Newbies will receive a half of their share of related revenue over the duration of the contract
A pool of money ($70M) will be leveraged by the conference as a whole to cover the Comcast related debt and the estimated related buyouts of the newbies
Key Assumptions that I'm making in the calculation:
Assuming an average subscriber base at between 20M-30M average annual subscribers and that that threshold is maintained throughout the duration of the agreement (will quantify what the impact of going up/down a level is)
Assuming that the newbies will give up half of their share of both the $20M base annual rights AND the subscriber contribution bonus from Apple
Scenarios run with adding 3 teams (assumes Arizona stays) and 4 teams (assumes Arizona goes to the Big12 as expected)
There are 3 basic tranches of payments: Big Fish (UW/Ore/Utah), remaining PAC teams, and Newbies
The basic financial formula is as follows:
Base Rights Fee + Subscriber Bonus +/- "Newcomer Tax" = Recurring Annual Revenue over life of contract
Guarantee fuck nuts like this don't watch football. Lot of support on Twitter for Apple. Like there was for the innovative Pac 12 network. Uw stays they die. If they die they die
Comments
TwitterX sources.https://hardcorehusky.com/discussion/comment/1837189#Comment_1837189
The assumptions about tiers for payouts, is that actually being reported as in the deal? Or is this just an assumption being made based on what other conferences have done? I would be mildly surprised if the west coast institutions have it in them to create haves and have nots given the culture of the campuses.
If UW can pull $40 mil per year I would take it with an escape clause after 2-3 years to align with a move to the Big 10. That $40 mil number seems to be based on wildly optimistic subscriber counts, though. No way in hell 20 million people are signing up for streaming.
I don't give a flying fuck about the money in this bullshit scenario.
If no one wants UW in their big time football conference then just fucking cancel the program already.
RowBoat has plenty of cash and will survive.
The Pacific Coast League is even more retarded than thought if this is the answer
Somebody needs to grab their balls and make the right move
That'll be great for enthusiasm for the program.
2) Utah getting more to the point if equal or more than the B12 numbers can effectively leave ASU in a bind
3) Terms puts a number out there that UW/Oregon need to get from the Big10
Hate the source but it’s been more accurate then you care to admit … was calling out Colorado a long time ago
There are ways to increase those numbers … for example T-Mobile customers were given the option to get the MLS package for free (similar to what they do for MLB)
But it’s a HUGE bet that is a giant leap of faith
The split of the Newbie revenue was embedded and is largely consistent with what others have gone through … the graduated schedule is not great for UW
I’d be SHOCKED if the numbers aren’t shown in a manner that highlights the ability for UW and Oregon to make more than the B12 number …
Now that number may include pie in the sky assumptions that we saw before with the PAC Network …
Big takeaway is that the path to make a bad decision is coming clear
Who from the PAC 12 or apple or whoever is feeding this guy info?
Fucking no one.