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UW’s Path to Pac12 Championship

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Comments

  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098
    Is it as simple as Oregon loses and UW wins?
  • bigcc
    bigcc Member Posts: 900
    Tequilla said:

    Is it as simple as Oregon loses and UW wins?

    looks like it to me
  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,720 Founders Club

    If SC chokes to ND it will be hilariously bad for p12 title game and double ny6 bids.

  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,990
    Tequilla said:

    Is it as simple as Oregon loses and UW wins?

    Correct. That complex chart is now just the Civil War and the Apple Cup
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098
    Correction

    UW has to beat Wazzu
    Oregon St has to beat Oregon

    AND

    CAL has to beat UCLA
  • wobidbus
    wobidbus Member Posts: 308
    I'm glad everyone is struggling to come to same the conclusion as I have: beat cuog, go beav
  • LongDukDong
    LongDukDong Member Posts: 1,305
    Tequilla said:

    Correction

    UW has to beat Wazzu
    Oregon St has to beat Oregon

    AND

    CAL has to beat UCLA

    Math tard
  • Uwspindoctor
    Uwspindoctor Member Posts: 60
    Tequilla said:

    Correction

    UW has to beat Wazzu
    Oregon St has to beat Oregon

    AND

    CAL has to beat UCLA

    This is right. If UCLA beats Cal (plus UW and OSU winning) we have a 3 way tie with UW/Utah/Oregon at 7-2 then OSU/UCLA at 6-3

    Three way tiebreakers are:
    1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2.

    Washington has not played Utah go to step 2

    2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie)

    Common opponents are Stanford/UCLA/Arizona/OSU/Colorado/Wazzu, all are 5-1

    3. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.
    When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

    OSU/UCLA are considered as a grouping so all 3 are 1-1 against that set then have beaten the remaining common opponents

    4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule)

    Utah wins with their Oregon/USC/ASU schedule being hardest of the three tied teams.

    PAC-12 sucks, no more math homework please
  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,720 Founders Club
    Christ, 3-way tie break goes to best record against highest ranked common opponent.

    As of now that's UCLA which Utah and UW lost to and Oregon beat.


    Basically Oregon SC are in.
  • Canadawg
    Canadawg Member Posts: 5,253
    A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.

    1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.

    2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.

    3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).

    4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.

    5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.

    6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.

    7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.

    8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.

    TLDR:

    Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and

    1. Colorado beats Utah or

    2. Cal beats UCLA.

    [PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.)
  • dtd
    dtd Member Posts: 5,205 Standard Supporter

    Utah suck dick

    Still unsure why you stole my user name
    @1to392831weretaken
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098
    Only likely path to a NY6 bowl without winning the conference is for SC to go to the CFP and backfilling in the Rose
  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    Canadawg said:

    A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.

    1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.

    2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.

    3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).

    4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.

    5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.

    6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.

    7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.

    8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.

    TLDR:

    Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and

    1. Colorado beats Utah or

    2. Cal beats UCLA.

    [PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.)

    This is actually correct. I was wrong on my first read of the criteria, as H2H doesn't matter in a multi team tie if all three teams haven't played each other.

    It's fucking stupid, since we should win in a three way tie between us, Oregon, and Utah, but it instead goes to the "best record against common opponent" criteria, which becomes a complete rabbit hole of conference record comparisons. The tl;dr is that Cal has to beat UCLA for us to win on that criteria.
  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,648 Founders Club
    The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.
  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    haie said:

    The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.

    USC making the playoffs likely gets us a NY6 bowl if we win out. If Oregon wins the conference then it's a total crapshoot where we land.
  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,266
    edited November 2022
    If USC makes the playoff and we beat Cuog we go to the Rose Bowl. (Assuming USC plays Oregon).

    We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.

  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,648 Founders Club
    Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    haie said:

    Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.

    Agreed. No chance the committee moves Oregon below us barring an absolute pants shitting in the CCG. They're rightfully hesitant to punish a team for a CCG appearance.
  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member Posts: 18,028
    Swaye said:

    Canadawg said:

    A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.

    1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.

    2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.

    3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).

    4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.

    5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.

    6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.

    7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.

    8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.

    TLDR:

    Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and

    1. Colorado beats Utah or

    2. Cal beats UCLA.

    [PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.)

    Just go to the Cotton Bowl. This makes my head hurt.
    Just one more reason to put a dagger in this mismanaged conference.
  • CuntWaffle
    CuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,499
    We aren’t making the CCG but should be able to slip into a NY6 game if we win out and so does USC.
  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    haie said:

    Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.

    The Bowls don’t pick by rankings. They could but it’s not a requirement. They pick whomever they want.
  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,042
    Baseman said:

    Sounds like the road to the Pac goes through Mara Largo

    Mara Lago? I’m pretty sure I’ve watched her adult films
  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    edited November 2022

    haie said:

    Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.

    The Bowls don’t pick by rankings. They could but it’s not a requirement. They pick whomever they want.

    "Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference."


    I'm guessing they used the word "traditionally" to signal that it's not contractually obligated, but given that the RB has never deviated from it, I think you can safely assume that they'll pick the next highest ranked P12 team should USC go to the playoffs.

    https://tournamentofroses.com/2022-rose-bowl-game-returns-to-traditional-format/
  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,616 Founders Club
    We have a lot riding on Beavis. If they beat Oregon next week that sends 9-3 Utah to the title game. If USC exacts revenge on the Yoots for their only loss then they go to the playoff at 12-1 and 10-2 UW > 9-4 Utah and 9-3 Oregon and 9-3 UCLA for a NY6 invite. This is the path. Utah is not losing to Colorado and UCLA is not losing to Cal.

    Go Beavs!