UW’s Path to Pac12 Championship
Comments
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Christ, 3-way tie break goes to best record against highest ranked common opponent.
As of now that's UCLA which Utah and UW lost to and Oregon beat.
Basically Oregon SC are in. -
A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.) -
Just go to the Cotton Bowl. This makes my head hurt.Canadawg said:A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.) -
@1to392831weretakenlongduckdong said:
Still unsure why you stole my user nameLongDukDong said:Utah suck dick
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Only likely path to a NY6 bowl without winning the conference is for SC to go to the CFP and backfilling in the Rose
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This is actually correct. I was wrong on my first read of the criteria, as H2H doesn't matter in a multi team tie if all three teams haven't played each other.Canadawg said:A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.)
It's fucking stupid, since we should win in a three way tie between us, Oregon, and Utah, but it instead goes to the "best record against common opponent" criteria, which becomes a complete rabbit hole of conference record comparisons. The tl;dr is that Cal has to beat UCLA for us to win on that criteria. -
The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.
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USC making the playoffs likely gets us a NY6 bowl if we win out. If Oregon wins the conference then it's a total crapshoot where we land.haie said:The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.
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If USC makes the playoff and we beat Cuog we go to the Rose Bowl. (Assuming USC plays Oregon).
We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.
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Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
