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Danger Scale 10

MikeSeaver
MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
edited February 16 in College Football Forum
UCLA: 7.25
Cal: 3
CU: 1
Harvard: 5
Utah: 8
OSU: 5.5

You can post your own Danger Scales (TM) here but mine will remain the official and I will update along the way as I see necessary.
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  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,674 Swaye's Wigwam
    Rhis is a new thing for me, but I like Harvard over OSU.
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,173 Standard Supporter
    If the Ducks beat UCLA they are going to lose to Cal in a major letdown game. Cook it.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    edited October 2022
    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If the Ducks beat UCLA they are going to lose to Cal in a major letdown game. Cook it.

    Disagree but Cal did get a bump from a 1.5 to a 3 as we were putting the model together because of the possible letdown factor.

    Their Danger Scale 10 (TM) rating did increase in our model but not enough to become a legitimate upset candidate.

    I should add the “legitimate upset candidate” grading starts at a 5.
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  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,674 Swaye's Wigwam
    MikeSeaver said:

    chuck said:

    Rhis is a new thing for me, but I like Harvard over OSU.

    Thank you, Scooby.
    Lol fuck off. Typing us hard.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,029
    MikeSeaver said:

    UCLA: 7.25
    Cal: 3
    CU: 1
    Harvard: 5
    Utah: 8
    OSU: 5.5

    You can post your own Danger Scales (TM) here but mine will remain the official and I will update along the way as I see necessary.

    This is why you are the king of thread views.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,029
    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If the Ducks beat UCLA they are going to lose to Cal in a major letdown game. Cook it.

    That would normally be a good hot take, but Cal is truly fucking dreadful this year, even by their standards. Oregon would have to want to lose that game on purpose I'm afraid.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    Oregon will beat Ucla

    Not a sandbag or reverse voodoo

    Over 20 years Oregon rarely loses games we? think or want them to

    This is one of them

    Just hoping for a dirty game and lots of injuries
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    RaceBannon said:

    Oregon will beat Ucla

    Not a sandbag or reverse voodoo

    Over 20 years Oregon rarely loses games we? think or want them to

    This is one of them

    Just hoping for a dirty game and lots of injuries

    Which games did you want them to win? They certainly lost the two biggest game you ever wanted them to.

    Tomorrows game reminds me of when they used to lose to Cal in the mid oughts. Has that feeling to me.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    MikeSeaver said:

    RaceBannon said:

    Oregon will beat Ucla

    Not a sandbag or reverse voodoo

    Over 20 years Oregon rarely loses games we? think or want them to

    This is one of them

    Just hoping for a dirty game and lots of injuries

    Which games did you want them to win? They certainly lost the two biggest game you ever wanted them to.

    Tomorrows game reminds me of when they used to lose to Cal in the mid oughts. Has that feeling to me.
    I was unclear I guess. I never want them to win anything. I'm saying like Ohio State last year. Sure loss. No chance

    And they win

    They lose weird games like Arizona or Stanford. Not games like this Ucla game
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  • SFGbob
    SFGbob Member Posts: 33,183
    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If the Ducks beat UCLA they are going to lose to Cal in a major letdown game. Cook it.

    No way. They beat UCLA the aren't losing to Cal. The swarthy Cuban is right, Cal is awful this year.
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  • HuskyJW
    HuskyJW Member Posts: 15,268

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    edited October 2022
    HuskyJW said:


    Really great addition to this thread. Great work. Makes a lot of sense to stick this in here. Amazing stuff.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    Danger Scale 10 updated model

    Cal: 2.5 (-.5)
    CU: 1
    MIT: 5
    Utah: 7.5 (-.5)
    OSU: 6 (+.5) (This is a GOOD Cal team)
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    Looks like MIT has a shot. The players will be breaking down the probabilities at math lab today
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  • DerekJohnson
    DerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 68,309 Founders Club

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    edited October 2022
    RaceBannon said:

    Looks like MIT has a shot. The players will be breaking down the probabilities at math lab today

    MIT sitting there looking like your UofA’s, your ASU’s your off year Stanfords. The model is reading and it comes at a point in the schedule where Oregon gets bit.
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  • 46XiJCAB
    46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    If this game isn't decided by halftime that's a 1/2 win for Cal. And I hear 1/2 of anything is a big deal.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,029
    46XiJCAB said:

    If this game isn't decided by halftime that's a 1/2 win for Cal. And I hear 1/2 of anything is a big deal.

    ISWYDT

    @RaceBannon ? Rebuttal?
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    If this game isn't decided by halftime that's a 1/2 win for Cal. And I hear 1/2 of anything is a big deal.

    ISWYDT

    @RaceBannon ? Rebuttal?
    Jealous

    Just



    Jealous
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    I'm hearing the Canes have 4 and a half
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  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,696 Founders Club
    Send Art The Clown at whoever thought this thread was a good idea.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    RaceBannon said:

    I'm hearing the Canes have 4 and a half

    Let me run the numbers.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    Updated model:

    CU: .5 (-.5)
    Brown: 5.5 (+.5)
    Utah: 7 (-.5)
    OSU: 6

    Ran the numbers on the Cains per a request. Neutral site comparison on a dry field: 2

    Happy to run hypothetical games through the model.

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    edited November 2022
    Cambridge: 6 (+5)
    Utah: 7.5 (+5)
    OSU: 5 (-1)

    The model seems to suggest there is quite a bit of danger Oregon splits on the next two games.

    This week we’re seeing a lot of “All the pressure is on Oregon” data points along with “So many times the underdog has won in college football.” The model also suggests “This time Cambridge won’t play scared.” This led to a jump late last night of +.5 danger for the gentle Englishmen.

    Utah remains the main threat to derailing Oregons playoff hopes adding a +.5 to their scale equaling their highest danger scale level this season. If Oregon defeats the academic giants of Europe this week, the model seems to suggest Utah may hit their all time high danger scale rating next week as Oregon “Always loses one in November, don’t they?” We’ll just have to wait on the outcome of this weeks game to find out.

    Finally we saw OSU take a hit in their danger scale (-1) after the model noticed they never beat Oregon home or away when Oregon is anything close to good. (Modeling a 9 and 10 win Oregon) They do, just slightly, remain in the “possible upset” category.

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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,765 Founders Club
    Oregon won't lose to Utah for a third time in a row. The loss IMO will be to the Chipster in the CCG. Maximum pain

    The case for Harvard
    Heisman talk
    Playoff talk
    Piping in Bow Down to Washington

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    RaceBannon said:

    Oregon won't lose to Utah for a third time in a row. The loss IMO will be to the Chipster in the CCG. Maximum pain

    The case for Harvard
    Heisman talk
    Playoff talk
    Piping in Bow Down to Washington

    They always lose one, right about now didn’t make your list?

    Should have been #1
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,029
    RaceBannon said:

    After all the malarkey and triple reverse double jinxes it was when I heard that Lanning pumped BDTW into practice and called it a big game that I thought UW had a shot

    All I remember were a bunch of DWAGs already bent over with a handful of vaseline applied to their ass cracks calling the plunger, and those were the brave ones. Fudgie and some others wouldn't post. They just wouldn't.

    There were a few sage posters who predicted a close game from the beginning.
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