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Danger Scale 10

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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,470 Founders Club
    I'm hearing the Canes have 4 and a half
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  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,400 Founders Club
    Send Art The Clown at whoever thought this thread was a good idea.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    RaceBannon said:

    I'm hearing the Canes have 4 and a half

    Let me run the numbers.
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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    Updated model:

    CU: .5 (-.5)
    Brown: 5.5 (+.5)
    Utah: 7 (-.5)
    OSU: 6

    Ran the numbers on the Cains per a request. Neutral site comparison on a dry field: 2

    Happy to run hypothetical games through the model.

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    edited November 2022
    Cambridge: 6 (+5)
    Utah: 7.5 (+5)
    OSU: 5 (-1)

    The model seems to suggest there is quite a bit of danger Oregon splits on the next two games.

    This week we’re seeing a lot of “All the pressure is on Oregon” data points along with “So many times the underdog has won in college football.” The model also suggests “This time Cambridge won’t play scared.” This led to a jump late last night of +.5 danger for the gentle Englishmen.

    Utah remains the main threat to derailing Oregons playoff hopes adding a +.5 to their scale equaling their highest danger scale level this season. If Oregon defeats the academic giants of Europe this week, the model seems to suggest Utah may hit their all time high danger scale rating next week as Oregon “Always loses one in November, don’t they?” We’ll just have to wait on the outcome of this weeks game to find out.

    Finally we saw OSU take a hit in their danger scale (-1) after the model noticed they never beat Oregon home or away when Oregon is anything close to good. (Modeling a 9 and 10 win Oregon) They do, just slightly, remain in the “possible upset” category.

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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,470 Founders Club
    Oregon won't lose to Utah for a third time in a row. The loss IMO will be to the Chipster in the CCG. Maximum pain

    The case for Harvard
    Heisman talk
    Playoff talk
    Piping in Bow Down to Washington

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  • MikeSeaver
    MikeSeaver Member Posts: 5,800
    RaceBannon said:

    Oregon won't lose to Utah for a third time in a row. The loss IMO will be to the Chipster in the CCG. Maximum pain

    The case for Harvard
    Heisman talk
    Playoff talk
    Piping in Bow Down to Washington

    They always lose one, right about now didn’t make your list?

    Should have been #1
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,274
    RaceBannon said:

    After all the malarkey and triple reverse double jinxes it was when I heard that Lanning pumped BDTW into practice and called it a big game that I thought UW had a shot

    All I remember were a bunch of DWAGs already bent over with a handful of vaseline applied to their ass cracks calling the plunger, and those were the brave ones. Fudgie and some others wouldn't post. They just wouldn't.

    There were a few sage posters who predicted a close game from the beginning.
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