Mariners Baby!
Comments
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i wonder what had munoz (seemingly) shook yesterday, or if he was just tired. kinda looked like his confidence was a little shaky, but he got through it.
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He has outings like that because his fastball is just something to show but isn't a reliable strike or out pitch. If he had even fair command over his fastball he'd all but eliminate bad outings.phineas said:i wonder what had munoz (seemingly) shook yesterday, or if he was just tired. kinda looked like his confidence was a little shaky, but he got through it.
He should look at what Gilbert did last season. His breaking stuff wasn't reliable so he focused on locating his fastball and threw it like 65% of the time. He became a hell of a pitcher in the process and that was with a fastball nowhere near as crazy as what Munoz has. -
1.0.3. With tail. What.The.Fucking.Fuck.
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Couple things (speculating)...2 days in a row, on the big stage. His slider is being called the best pitch in the game right now. 103 not withstanding, he's a two-pitch guy, and MLB hitters can hit 103 IF they are sitting on it. 2 pitches means for hitters, you pick one and if you are right, don't miss it. The slider looks identical to the FB out of his hand, at 90-93. If you sit slider and get the heater, no shot, and vise-versa. It is a guessing game, which is why you see so many guys with 97+ go top shelf, and there are a million foul balls. The hitters are good enough, with their "2 strike emergency hack" to repeatedly foul that shit off. I read he was throwing almost 60% sliders, at the behest of the M's analytics guys...you can only do that with the big FB to back it up.phineas said:i wonder what had munoz (seemingly) shook yesterday, or if he was just tired. kinda looked like his confidence was a little shaky, but he got through it.
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I'm surprised it's only 60%. Tjat seems reasonable to me. I wanted to know but hadn't gotten around to looking it up. It just shows that I've watched a limited sample.Fishpo31 said:
Couple things (speculating)...2 days in a row, on the big stage. His slider is being called the best pitch in the game right now. 103 not withstanding, he's a two-pitch guy, and MLB hitters can hit 103 IF they are sitting on it. 2 pitches means for hitters, you pick one and if you are right, don't miss it. The slider looks identical to the FB out of his hand, at 90-93. If you sit slider and get the heater, no shot, and vise-versa. It is a guessing game, which is why you see so many guys with 97+ go top shelf, and there are a million foul balls. The hitters are good enough, with their "2 strike emergency hack" to repeatedly foul that shit off. I read he was throwing almost 60% sliders, at the behest of the M's analytics guys...you can only do that with the big FB to back it up.phineas said:i wonder what had munoz (seemingly) shook yesterday, or if he was just tired. kinda looked like his confidence was a little shaky, but he got through it.
Fastballs have been few and far between when I have watched though. I've seen him throw one out of 13 pitches in a game where he was scuffling. It's obvious that he doesn't have confidence in it in tough spots.
I'm not proposing he flip it or even change the ratio. He Golbert example was simply to show that a good fastball, located well, can be a do it all pitch. Munoz has something different rhan a good fastball to boot. I'm just saying his fastball command is an "opportunity for improvement" going forward. -
He has gone really slider-heavy. He's been overthrowing the FB, jerking it to glove-side. His effectiveness is in that, at 98-103, the hitters have to gear up for it. There is no perceptible difference between his FB and slider mechanically, arm-speed, release point. They can't pick it up until it is too late, hence the swing-over-the-top of the slider. It is FB up, slider down. The have to respect the FB, which makes the slider so deadly. If I were prepping hitters to face Munoz, I would tell them to spit on the FB, and sit slider. I would be shocked if that isn't what the Astros will try to do...chuck said:
I'm surprised it's only 60%. Tjat seems reasonable to me. I wanted to know but hadn't gotten around to looking it up. It just shows that I've watched a limited sample.Fishpo31 said:
Couple things (speculating)...2 days in a row, on the big stage. His slider is being called the best pitch in the game right now. 103 not withstanding, he's a two-pitch guy, and MLB hitters can hit 103 IF they are sitting on it. 2 pitches means for hitters, you pick one and if you are right, don't miss it. The slider looks identical to the FB out of his hand, at 90-93. If you sit slider and get the heater, no shot, and vise-versa. It is a guessing game, which is why you see so many guys with 97+ go top shelf, and there are a million foul balls. The hitters are good enough, with their "2 strike emergency hack" to repeatedly foul that shit off. I read he was throwing almost 60% sliders, at the behest of the M's analytics guys...you can only do that with the big FB to back it up.phineas said:i wonder what had munoz (seemingly) shook yesterday, or if he was just tired. kinda looked like his confidence was a little shaky, but he got through it.
Fastballs have been few and far between when I have watched though. I've seen him throw one out of 13 pitches in a game where he was scuffling. It's obvious that he doesn't have confidence in it in tough spots.
I'm not proposing he flip it or even change the ratio. He Golbert example was simply to show that a good fastball, located well, can be a do it all pitch. Munoz has something different rhan a good fastball to boot. I'm just saying his fastball command is an "opportunity for improvement" going forward.
I was once told by a very respected guy that the entire game is predicated off of the hitter's fear of getting beat by a FB inside. It makes sense to me.
When I was working, I saw Edgar face a young kid from Tampa. Four 100+ FB's, the third one at his dome. He struck out, looking bad (for Edgar). Next night, after one FB, Edgar took him off the facing of the upper deck. The kid (and catcher) didn't trust the breaking pitch. I saw it, and so did Edgar... -
MLB pitchers and their stuff are so advanced now that I'm pretty out of my depth, but I still cling in part to my own philosophy. That is that a guy with an overpowering fastball, no matter how good his breaking stuff, is risking damage every time he speeds up their bats by throwing it.
Never throw offspeed stuff to bad hitters is what I preached as a coach and even as a teenager who caught about a third of games and did some pitching. Nothing annoyed me more than seeing a #9 hitter being gifted a slow breaking ball down the middle and spoiling what should be an automatic out.
Obviously we're not talking about teenage knuckle curves here, but nasty, 90+mph sliders. It's not equivalent. I'd just like to see guys like Brash and Munoz get better FB command because they shouldn't even need to show those sliders so heavily against weak bats. Dot the corners at 98+ and make it quick. -
Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter. -
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter. -
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.Bob_C said:
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff! -
Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.Fishpo31 said:
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.Bob_C said:
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff!
Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic. -
True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.chuck said:
Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.Fishpo31 said:
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.Bob_C said:
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff!
Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.
The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.
Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore... -
I believe I will refrain from ever arguing matters relating to pitching with either of you.Fishpo31 said:
True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.chuck said:
Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.Fishpo31 said:
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.Bob_C said:
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff!
Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.
The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.
Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore... -
Did we win today? I saw a lot of Facebook reactions from people who’ve never posted about the Mariners until last week. They seem disappointed.
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Like we say, NO! Open discussion, all hands on deck. For me, no flex intended, I’m just a baseball geek, and love discussing it…the more the merrier!creepycoug said:
I believe I will refrain from ever arguing matters relating to pitching with either of you.Fishpo31 said:
True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.chuck said:
Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.Fishpo31 said:
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.Bob_C said:
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.Fishpo31 said:Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff!
Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.
The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.
Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore... -
TSIO
The Ms grasp defeat from the jaws of victory and blow the momentum they had and gave it all to Houston
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“Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher”…
-Earl Weaver -
Wait for the 3 run Homer- Earl Weaver
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Well the good news is, we shouldnt have to see sewald in any high stress spots anymore, and definitely shouldnt see robbie ray again in this series. they deserve whatever it is they get if they roll those bums out there again.
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All *we saw last night was the superior team eventually flexing their muscle. Houston is better than Seattle in every way.
The Ms showed their best and its not as good. They have to play over their heads to win this thing. No surprises.
It's not over, but it's probably over. -
Now it's over.
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It was always over.
The Ms have put together a nice team. They look like they belong there, but aren't quite a threat to a team as deep as Houston yet. Need a couple more dangerous bats, continued improvement from a couple of guys like Julio, Munoz, Kirby, and Gilbert and another good bullpen arm or two.
They're right there, but Houston is the model and it's easy to see where Seattle doesn't match up. If you can't find a guy like Alvarez for the middle of the order then you need a couple of guys like Turner to replace him. Houston, unfortunately, has both. -
They will have a couple more "mature" bats and arms next year...these guys are not ready for prime time, yet...they are good (the Astros are top-two for me), they are in it, but haven't been able to finish. That comes with experience, and experience is often painful, as "we" all know...Astros are dominant at home. Let's see what happens this weekend, and IF we get to game 5, all bets are off...EWIWBI...
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Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?
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It's possible. He looks a bit better at the plate. He has flashed the ability to take tough pitches and hit the ball the other way at times in the past. When he is hitting the ball he tends to hit it hard and probably has the most pure power of any of their hitters.BleachedAnusDawg said:Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?
He doesn't have to be amazing, .240 with 20+ homers would help them.
Bigger question for me is Jesse Winker. Is he burnt toast or is he capable of hitting 25 homers with high slugging and BA?
Nobody aside from Julio, Raleigh, and a couple of young starters had a exceptiinal seasona vs exoectations. Several of the guys they needed on offense were hurt or had downturns (huge downturn in Winker's case), and this is where it got them. It's not a finished product but there's still plenty of reason to think this isn't their best yet. -
im not familiar with winkers time before the mariners but hopefully next year he can get back to that standard. i assume he wont be leaving any time soon.
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@RoadDawg55?BleachedAnusDawg said:Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?
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fire servais in the dugout for putting diego castillo in this game
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They have Winker for one more arbitration year I think. I can't recite his stats but he tore it up in Cincinnati for the healthy parts of three seasons or so, like high .900 ops. I think the short fences there probably helped him some, but he still hit way, way below expectations.phineas said:im not familiar with winkers time before the mariners but hopefully next year he can get back to that standard. i assume he wont be leaving any time soon.
