Between the Front & Back: Grundle’s Book Club
Comments
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That doesn’t surprise me in the least. I included it as I always like reading counter arguments.HoustonHusky said:
Hadn’t read the book but from what I read of the article/review I’d argue otherwise...should be noted that the author of this review isn't a WP staff writer or book reviewer...he’s an environmental activist (and a bit nuts IMHO) from a quick Google search of him.Doog_de_Jour said:OK, back to the book...
Before I launch into what I thought of it and respond to other’s observations, here’s a book review by WaPo that picks apart some of the author’s points:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-global-energy-study-that-misses-some-climate-change-realities/2020/09/24/1addeb3e-f2b3-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html
A much better/fairer review is here in the Wall Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-map-review-tapping-the-untappable-11601333350 -
@CFetters_Nacho_Lover will take great umbrage at the shots at #NachosGreta.Doog_de_Jour said:
That doesn’t surprise me in the least. I included it as I always like reading counter arguments.HoustonHusky said:
Hadn’t read the book but from what I read of the article/review I’d argue otherwise...should be noted that the author of this review isn't a WP staff writer or book reviewer...he’s an environmental activist (and a bit nuts IMHO) from a quick Google search of him.Doog_de_Jour said:OK, back to the book...
Before I launch into what I thought of it and respond to other’s observations, here’s a book review by WaPo that picks apart some of the author’s points:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-global-energy-study-that-misses-some-climate-change-realities/2020/09/24/1addeb3e-f2b3-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html
A much better/fairer review is here in the Wall Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-map-review-tapping-the-untappable-11601333350 -
The book absolutely makes the poont about cheap power and manufacturing. Toward that, he includes an anecdote of a Chinese chemicals company opening a new plant in Louisiana specifically for cheap power and easily access to petrochemical precursors.HoustonHusky said:Haven’t read so I should probably stay out...but I won’t. I can say nothing has been a bigger destroyer of capital ($$$) than shale. Not great for oil companies, but it’s been an absolute boon for the US as a whole...yeah capitalism. It balanced out the capital flow for the US, created jobs galore, and given us a shiteton of natural gas which has kept our power/electricity prices low (compared globally) which has been one of the key drivers for manufacturing (don’t discount energy cost in that renaissance...many people ignore it). Economics on shale plays are completely different than as an example deep water drilling...both in upfront CapEx and cycle time to revenues. Doubt you will see much of the high, high upfront CapEx deep water/Alaska/etc drilling until something structurally changes.
Environmentalist are right about shipping oil on rail cars...fuck them (and Warren Buffet and Russia and others) for using these moron environmentalists to fight all the pipelines. That said, some of that pipeline craziness really screws over Canada and Northern US oil plays (Wyoming and North Dakota) and benefits plays down here so I guess I shouldn’t complain too much. Bad for US...good for Texas. Yeah us. -
Again, I need to preface this with the fact I haven’t read the book. That said, I’d argue it’s much more fundamental that what I’m assuming is the methanol plant in Louisiana. Take steel as an example...crazy energy-intense process to make it. Having dirt-cheap energy prices here in the US helped reinvigorate the industry here (it wasn’t just Trump tariffs) which cascaded downstream to other manufacturing that used it.GrundleStiltzkin said:
The book absolutely makes the poont about cheap power and manufacturing. Toward that, he includes an anecdote of a Chinese chemicals company opening a new plant in Louisiana specifically for cheap power and easily access to petrochemical precursors.HoustonHusky said:Haven’t read so I should probably stay out...but I won’t. I can say nothing has been a bigger destroyer of capital ($$$) than shale. Not great for oil companies, but it’s been an absolute boon for the US as a whole...yeah capitalism. It balanced out the capital flow for the US, created jobs galore, and given us a shiteton of natural gas which has kept our power/electricity prices low (compared globally) which has been one of the key drivers for manufacturing (don’t discount energy cost in that renaissance...many people ignore it). Economics on shale plays are completely different than as an example deep water drilling...both in upfront CapEx and cycle time to revenues. Doubt you will see much of the high, high upfront CapEx deep water/Alaska/etc drilling until something structurally changes.
Environmentalist are right about shipping oil on rail cars...fuck them (and Warren Buffet and Russia and others) for using these moron environmentalists to fight all the pipelines. That said, some of that pipeline craziness really screws over Canada and Northern US oil plays (Wyoming and North Dakota) and benefits plays down here so I guess I shouldn’t complain too much. Bad for US...good for Texas. Yeah us.
Energy is a fundamental building block to the manufacturing industry...it’s why Germany subsidies it for companies. You want to kill an economy drive up energy prices...hope we aren’t dumb enough here to rediscover this known concept. -
One of the things I appreciated about this book was it explained how cutting over to green/clean fuel is such a challenge, especially in the developing world. The author mentioned how even if the US were to magically switch over every vehicle over to electric, there is 1) still airplanes, which for the foreseeable future don’t have alternative means of fueling and 2) in a places like India and Africa, without some sort of huge outside investment, they don’t have the capital to cut over to EV without stunting their economic growth.
This is the thing that’s always frustrated me when talking about environmental topics with many people is they don’t think of details like this, generally.
And I don’t think the US will have any widespread adoption of EVs anytime soon. The incentive (and the technology/infrastructure) just isn’t there yet. Look at how all the money/R&D seems to get put into automated driving cars and apps like Uber. -
Oh, and just wanted to provide some feedback to @GrundleStiltzkin and @DerekJohnson, I’d definitely do the book club again! It might help to have a weekly “game thread” in the Record Shoppe that just goes over a few chapters at a time though instead of the whole book at once.
Thank you for organizing! I enjoyed this. -
What do you mean by “anytime soon?”Doog_de_Jour said:And I don’t think the US will have any widespread adoption of EVs anytime soon.
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I was thinking of the aggressive timelines many presidential candidates were talking about during the primaries. Bernie Sanders, and this is mentioned in the book, wanted complete decarbonization of both the energy and transportation sectors by 2030.BennyBeaver said:
What do you mean by “anytime soon?”Doog_de_Jour said:And I don’t think the US will have any widespread adoption of EVs anytime soon.
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Decent book. It's no Harry Potter, but not bad. I listened to it mostly in the car and for that reason probably missed more than I'd admit, but I thought it tied a lot together. OBK even got a 5G shoutout in the book. Agreed with that smoke show @Doog_de_Jour that as much as folks would like to see a quick transition, it's not likely feasible. Now I can move onto half blood prince.
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Also fuck China.
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@Doog_de_Jour vetoed it. She was concerned if some of learned this, the wives of HH might be less susceptible to her powers.DerekJohnson said:I'm on board for sure. But what happened to that Female Orgasms for Dummies that was being kicked around?
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Pressure testing?1to392831weretaken said:
Biden has only been President for two months, so kind of weird to suggest we're more energy independent now than when Trump was President, but whatever. Either way, that's been going on for some time. EIA's most recent data (and the most recent data that isn't COVID affected anyway) is from 2019. In that year, the U.S. produced 19% of the world's crude oil and consumed 20%. Saudi Arabia is next, just edging out Russia, with a hair shy of 12%. Half of the United States' oil imports come from Canada. (Sure is what we run a hell of a lot of.) This has been going on for years.pawz said:So far so good. Read the free 8 chapters online, bought the book.
Very interesting. Seems to be written factually, apolitically - which is refreshing tbh. After GRUNDLe saying so, I wish I took notes. Some real gems. Certainly creating a new understanding of the geopolitics in play.
(TTTTT - after seeing that Saudi Arabia only sends us a low single-digit percentage of our actual fossil fuel use as a country, it's a head-scratcher that Trump and Biden gave MBS a free pass for the Khashoggi assassination. Slightly more understandable under Trump since we weren't quite yet energy independent though certainly trending that way, but still ...)
Really hope @HoustonHusky partakes in this book report. I would love to hear his take as he is likely familiar with all of subject matter.
Thing is, oil is fungible. Just because we only get 6% of our oil from Saudi Arabia doesn't mean that a country that produces 12% of the world's supply can't have a major impact in global pricing by increasing or decreasing production. The problem isn't the threat of the Saudis cutting us off from their delicious oil, it's the threat of the Saudis opening up the faucet (yet again) and disrupting pricing in a way that costs domestic producers and creates instability in that industry. My brother in law had to sell off his profitable pressure testing business and move home from North Dakota the last time they pulled it. -
Haven’t read this but it’s on my list but I can give some commentary on this chapter.GrundleStiltzkin said:3. Iran
Seriously, fuck those guys. I've read a ton of books in the last several years that have some touch point in the Middle East, mostly from a "war on terror" perspective. Iran comes up a lot in those, natch. However, this book for me really crystalized that amount of malarkey the Iranian government drops across the region. Directly or through proxies, Iran seems to responsible for at least 81% of the troubles in the region. Weº know they hate usº, this is understood, but let's not loose sight of how much Iran seems to hate every other ME government.
Aside 1: Who knew that Houthi isn't an ethnic minority group, but an Islamist rebel group named after their former leader who was vaporized by the Saudis? I did not. Just from snips and headlines covering SA's actions against them, I had the impression that Houthis vs. Saudis was something akin to Shiite vs. Sunni. Nope, Iranian backed guerrillas.
Aside 2: What a clusterfuck de-Baathification was in Iraq. Terrible decision.
1. I was told by a long-tim CENTCOM analyst that Iran is responsible for more American deaths that Al-Qaeda could ever dream of. Iran is sneaky good at using proxies to maintain deniability. Iran is also the main power broker in Iraq.
2. That brings up aside number 2. De-Ba’athifaction is the reason the Iraq war turned so badly so early after the invasion. We? took a barely functioning but still functioning infrastructure and turned it into a non-functioning infrastructure overnight while turning loose thousands of military aged males to wreak havoc.
3. Here’s how poorly planned the post invasion occupation was. I read CENTCOM planning docs that covered deployment, pre-invasion, invasion and post-invasion. The first 3 phases were beautifully detailed and down into the weeds, i.e., 4th Infantry Division will unload its last tank at 0517 on Feb 2 from the cargo ship and be ready to attack at 0602. Jump ahead to the post-invasion plans and it literally said “TBD”.
We can fight 2 wars at a time like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan but we can’t do it well. -
You can’t see my head but these people are laying on top of me.DerekJohnson said:
Ah yes, scenes from the most recent Hardcore Husky get togetherSwaye said:Is this the thread where I post Dubai Porta Potties?
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Live footage of my reaction:GrundleStiltzkin said:
@CFetters_Nacho_Lover will take great umbrage at the shots at #NachosGreta.Doog_de_Jour said:
That doesn’t surprise me in the least. I included it as I always like reading counter arguments.HoustonHusky said:
Hadn’t read the book but from what I read of the article/review I’d argue otherwise...should be noted that the author of this review isn't a WP staff writer or book reviewer...he’s an environmental activist (and a bit nuts IMHO) from a quick Google search of him.Doog_de_Jour said:OK, back to the book...
Before I launch into what I thought of it and respond to other’s observations, here’s a book review by WaPo that picks apart some of the author’s points:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-global-energy-study-that-misses-some-climate-change-realities/2020/09/24/1addeb3e-f2b3-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html
A much better/fairer review is here in the Wall Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-map-review-tapping-the-untappable-11601333350
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@CFetters_Nacho_Lover thank you for your services
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My services are timly as ever.GrundleStiltzkin said:@CFetters_Nacho_Lover thank you for your services
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CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
My services are timly as ever.GrundleStiltzkin said:@CFetters_Nacho_Lover thank you for your services
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Roof gets it.GrundleStiltzkin said:CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
My services are timly as ever.GrundleStiltzkin said:@CFetters_Nacho_Lover thank you for your services
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A worthy addendum to all this that Youtube's algos (I like to call algorithms "algos." I like to call them that) served up to me. Illinois Energy Prof. All sorts of good shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTA-M12vrT4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPp25S_2an0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F92L6F0INYk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gtog_gOaGQ
Even something for OBK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R79jwn_xg8 -
HardcoreHusky, first/right, as always. A year ago.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Full disclosure, I have never conducted nor participated in book club. But at HardcoreHusky, expertise is a disqualification.
I cheated a little and started this last week. It's completely my wheelhouse, big picture stuff somewhere between the Tug and @creepycoug shitty little bored, knowledge of which helps me not at all in daily life. Call it intellectual onanism.
I read one this guym's earlier books immediately before, and it was outstanding. I only got a couple chapters into this one and it was every bit as good.The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (Daniel Yergin, 2020)
Named Energy Writer of the Year for The New Map by the American Energy Society
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future
The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. The shale revolution in oil and gas--made possible by fracking technology, but not without controversy--has transformed the American economy, ending the era of shortage, but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse--and, during the coronavirus crisis, brokered a tense truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging our economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low carbon future. All of this has been made starker and more urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dark age that it has wrought.
More at Goodreads.
So I guess how this is going to work, I'm throwing this out here at the end of February. At the end of March, we'll all talk about it or something. Or don't. I could care less. -
I still need to finish that. Got side tracked reading bout Comanches.GrundleStiltzkin said:
HardcoreHusky, first/right, as always. A year ago.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Full disclosure, I have never conducted nor participated in book club. But at HardcoreHusky, expertise is a disqualification.
I cheated a little and started this last week. It's completely my wheelhouse, big picture stuff somewhere between the Tug and @creepycoug shitty little bored, knowledge of which helps me not at all in daily life. Call it intellectual onanism.
I read one this guym's earlier books immediately before, and it was outstanding. I only got a couple chapters into this one and it was every bit as good.The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (Daniel Yergin, 2020)
Named Energy Writer of the Year for The New Map by the American Energy Society
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future
The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. The shale revolution in oil and gas--made possible by fracking technology, but not without controversy--has transformed the American economy, ending the era of shortage, but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse--and, during the coronavirus crisis, brokered a tense truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging our economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low carbon future. All of this has been made starker and more urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dark age that it has wrought.
More at Goodreads.
So I guess how this is going to work, I'm throwing this out here at the end of February. At the end of March, we'll all talk about it or something. Or don't. I could care less.
