So far so good. Read the free 8 chapters online, bought the book.
Very interesting. Seems to be written factually, apolitically - which is refreshing tbh. After GRUNDLe saying so, I wish I took notes. Some real gems. Certainly creating a new understanding of the geopolitics in play.
(TTTTT - after seeing that Saudi Arabia only sends us a low single-digit percentage of our actual fossil fuel use as a country, it's a head-scratcher that Trump and Biden gave MBS a free pass for the Khashoggi assassination. Slightly more understandable under Trump since we weren't quite yet energy independent though certainly trending that way, but still ...)
Really hope @HoustonHusky partakes in this book report. I would love to hear his take as he is likely familiar with all of subject matter.
Biden has only been President for two months, so kind of weird to suggest we're more energy independent now than when Trump was President, but whatever. Either way, that's been going on for some time. EIA's most recent data (and the most recent data that isn't COVID affected anyway) is from 2019. In that year, the U.S. produced 19% of the world's crude oil and consumed 20%. Saudi Arabia is next, just edging out Russia, with a hair shy of 12%. Half of the United States' oil imports come from Canada. (Sure is what we run a hell of a lot of.) This has been going on for years.
Thing is, oil is fungible. Just because we only get 6% of our oil from Saudi Arabia doesn't mean that a country that produces 12% of the world's supply can't have a major impact in global pricing by increasing or decreasing production. The problem isn't the threat of the Saudis cutting us off from their delicious oil, it's the threat of the Saudis opening up the faucet (yet again) and disrupting pricing in a way that costs domestic producers and creates instability in that industry. My brother in law had to sell off his profitable pressure testing business and move home from North Dakota the last time they pulled it.
Seriously, fuck those guys. I've read a ton of books in the last several years that have some touch point in the Middle East, mostly from a "war on terror" perspective. Iran comes up a lot in those, natch. However, this book for me really crystalized that amount of malarkey the Iranian government drops across the region. Directly or through proxies, Iran seems to responsible for at least 81% of the troubles in the region. Weº know they hate usº, this is understood, but let's not loose sight of how much Iran seems to hate every other ME government.
Aside 1: Who knew that Houthi isn't an ethnic minority group, but an Islamist rebel group named after their former leader who was vaporized by the Saudis? I did not. Just from snips and headlines covering SA's actions against them, I had the impression that Houthis vs. Saudis was something akin to Shiite vs. Sunni. Nope, Iranian backed guerrillas.
Aside 2: What a clusterfuck de-Baathification was in Iraq. Terrible decision.
Haven’t read this but it’s on my list but I can give some commentary on this chapter.
1. I was told by a long-tim CENTCOM analyst that Iran is responsible for more American deaths that Al-Qaeda could ever dream of. Iran is sneaky good at using proxies to maintain deniability. Iran is also the main power broker in Iraq.
2. That brings up aside number 2. De-Ba’athifaction is the reason the Iraq war turned so badly so early after the invasion. We? took a barely functioning but still functioning infrastructure and turned it into a non-functioning infrastructure overnight while turning loose thousands of military aged males to wreak havoc.
3. Here’s how poorly planned the post invasion occupation was. I read CENTCOM planning docs that covered deployment, pre-invasion, invasion and post-invasion. The first 3 phases were beautifully detailed and down into the weeds, i.e., 4th Infantry Division will unload its last tank at 0517 on Feb 2 from the cargo ship and be ready to attack at 0602. Jump ahead to the post-invasion plans and it literally said “TBD”.
We can fight 2 wars at a time like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan but we can’t do it well.
Before I launch into what I thought of it and respond to other’s observations, here’s a book review by WaPo that picks apart some of the author’s points:
Hadn’t read the book but from what I read of the article/review I’d argue otherwise...should be noted that the author of this review isn't a WP staff writer or book reviewer...he’s an environmental activist (and a bit nuts IMHO) from a quick Google search of him.
That doesn’t surprise me in the least. I included it as I always like reading counter arguments.
A much better/fairer review is here in the Wall Street Journal:
Full disclosure, I have never conducted nor participated in book club. But at HardcoreHusky, expertise is a disqualification.
I cheated a little and started this last week. It's completely my wheelhouse, big picture stuff somewhere between the Tug and @creepycoug shitty little bored, knowledge of which helps me not at all in daily life. Call it intellectual onanism.
Named Energy Writer of the Year for The New Map by the American Energy Society
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future
The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. The shale revolution in oil and gas--made possible by fracking technology, but not without controversy--has transformed the American economy, ending the era of shortage, but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse--and, during the coronavirus crisis, brokered a tense truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging our economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low carbon future. All of this has been made starker and more urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dark age that it has wrought.
I read one this guym's earlier books immediately before, and it was outstanding. I only got a couple chapters into this one and it was every bit as good.
So I guess how this is going to work, I'm throwing this out here at the end of February. At the end of March, we'll all talk about it or something. Or don't. I could care less.
HardcoreHusky, first/right, as always. A year ago.
Full disclosure, I have never conducted nor participated in book club. But at HardcoreHusky, expertise is a disqualification.
I cheated a little and started this last week. It's completely my wheelhouse, big picture stuff somewhere between the Tug and @creepycoug shitty little bored, knowledge of which helps me not at all in daily life. Call it intellectual onanism.
Named Energy Writer of the Year for The New Map by the American Energy Society
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future
The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. The shale revolution in oil and gas--made possible by fracking technology, but not without controversy--has transformed the American economy, ending the era of shortage, but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse--and, during the coronavirus crisis, brokered a tense truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging our economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low carbon future. All of this has been made starker and more urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dark age that it has wrought.
I read one this guym's earlier books immediately before, and it was outstanding. I only got a couple chapters into this one and it was every bit as good.
So I guess how this is going to work, I'm throwing this out here at the end of February. At the end of March, we'll all talk about it or something. Or don't. I could care less.
HardcoreHusky, first/right, as always. A year ago.
I still need to finish that. Got side tracked reading bout Comanches.
Comments
1. I was told by a long-tim CENTCOM analyst that Iran is responsible for more American deaths that Al-Qaeda could ever dream of. Iran is sneaky good at using proxies to maintain deniability. Iran is also the main power broker in Iraq.
2. That brings up aside number 2. De-Ba’athifaction is the reason the Iraq war turned so badly so early after the invasion. We? took a barely functioning but still functioning infrastructure and turned it into a non-functioning infrastructure overnight while turning loose thousands of military aged males to wreak havoc.
3. Here’s how poorly planned the post invasion occupation was. I read CENTCOM planning docs that covered deployment, pre-invasion, invasion and post-invasion. The first 3 phases were beautifully detailed and down into the weeds, i.e., 4th Infantry Division will unload its last tank at 0517 on Feb 2 from the cargo ship and be ready to attack at 0602. Jump ahead to the post-invasion plans and it literally said “TBD”.
We can fight 2 wars at a time like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan but we can’t do it well.
Even something for OBK