The move lower that we will see is not a correction

Baseman said:

DawgsCanDance said:

"tech has proven how essential they are during the pandemic ... I could well be wrong. a tech burst would hurt right now."

Yep, the business of tech everything and anything is going gangbusters now and will continue... the question is what the Tech revolution valuation is really worth, and does that mean a pullback of size in the tech valuation which drags the rest of the market down with it ~ which is really what is actually happening now.

I'd love to see a pull down -- 50% or more would be awesome. Half off sale on Google, Amazon, Starbucks, Dominos Pizza, Union Paciifc, Berkshire, the SP and QQQ?

Hell Yes!

The way I think about that is, with 8 years left and more new money to put into it, I too should welcome a big pull back so that I can buy cheap. Yes, it's not as comforting to look at the now much smaller number after a big sell off. It takes discipline to be able to tell yourself, "this is good for you. you're not buying at inflated prices. when this bounces back you're going to be much better off. be happy for shitty things."

Psychology plays into things so much. But with that said, 8 years isn't that long, and so if I ran the world, I'd have the pull-back happen now rather than in five years.

DawgsCanDance said:

Baseman said:

DawgsCanDance said:

"tech has proven how essential they are during the pandemic ... I could well be wrong. a tech burst would hurt right now."

Yep, the business of tech everything and anything is going gangbusters now and will continue... the question is what the Tech revolution valuation is really worth, and does that mean a pullback of size in the tech valuation which drags the rest of the market down with it ~ which is really what is actually happening now.

I'd love to see a pull down -- 50% or more would be awesome. Half off sale on Google, Amazon, Starbucks, Dominos Pizza, Union Paciifc, Berkshire, the SP and QQQ?

Hell Yes!

50% overvalued means a drop of 33% to be fairly valued.... [150% * .666 = 100]

I'm certain Amazon, Google and the other companies will be worth far more than they are today. And if they aren't, it means the world has gone all to shit and currency will have no value, anyway.

BleachedAnusDawg said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

@DawgsCanDance , as I read your prediction, a reval of US equities to rationally reflect corp. earnings means you think markets will start reflecting reality and the era of market and economy decoupling is/will be behind us.

Probably in everybody's best long-term interest for that to happen.

What do you think will be the catalyst? A critical mass of investors sidelining like @Baseman described in his post? Something else?

How do you think the expected economic euphoria post COVID (I assume we all agree this will end eventually) will affect markets?

The stock market is a voting machine, a current snapshot of values. I hope the market takes a shit so I can buy more.

Google, Amazon, and Dominos pizza are close to undervalued now if you take a long term view.

Facebook on fundamentals and projected growth is a buy. Potential regulation, however, gives me pause.

I'm sorry. I'm a cretin when it comes to this stuff, but WTF is so special about Domino's and their crappy pizza? I would think the posters here would be high on the Little Caesar's stock.

I actually like Dominos. But your question still stands.

BleachedAnusDawg said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

@DawgsCanDance , as I read your prediction, a reval of US equities to rationally reflect corp. earnings means you think markets will start reflecting reality and the era of market and economy decoupling is/will be behind us.

Probably in everybody's best long-term interest for that to happen.

What do you think will be the catalyst? A critical mass of investors sidelining like @Baseman described in his post? Something else?

How do you think the expected economic euphoria post COVID (I assume we all agree this will end eventually) will affect markets?

The stock market is a voting machine, a current snapshot of values. I hope the market takes a shit so I can buy more.

Google, Amazon, and Dominos pizza are close to undervalued now if you take a long term view.

Facebook on fundamentals and projected growth is a buy. Potential regulation, however, gives me pause.

I'm sorry. I'm a cretin when it comes to this stuff, but WTF is so special about Domino's and their crappy pizza? I would think the posters here would be high on the Little Caesar's stock.

Dominos out performed Amazon over the past decade by a wide margin.

10,000 in Dominos 10 years ago is worth $245,000 today with an effective current yield of 23% on your original investment.

In comparison, 10,000 in Amazon is worth $172,000 and pays no dividend.

Dominos forecasts yearly sales increases between 8-10% a year over the next three years and they've reached an inflection point where most of the additional revenue falls to the bottom line.

Historically they've blown away earnings estimates. Management executes.

Unlike Starbucks, Dominos franchises their stores. This burden of startup costs falls on the franchisee but don't weep for them because the average payback on startup costs is less than 2 years and the owner can expect over 50% a year return on cash.

The pizza is meh but it's affordable and their technology and loyalty program generate return business. Their wings are damn good and rival buffalo wild wings and cost less.

In any event, I like the company and they're shareholder friendly. They use free cash flow to back stock and increase their dividends, 20% on average the past few years.

$14 billion market cap and still plenty of growth opportunity for new stores.

That's my thesis for going long, anyway. And yeah, it hits the spot when inebriated

Baseman said:

BleachedAnusDawg said:

Baseman said:

creepycoug said:

@DawgsCanDance , as I read your prediction, a reval of US equities to rationally reflect corp. earnings means you think markets will start reflecting reality and the era of market and economy decoupling is/will be behind us.

Probably in everybody's best long-term interest for that to happen.

What do you think will be the catalyst? A critical mass of investors sidelining like @Baseman described in his post? Something else?

How do you think the expected economic euphoria post COVID (I assume we all agree this will end eventually) will affect markets?

The stock market is a voting machine, a current snapshot of values. I hope the market takes a shit so I can buy more.

Google, Amazon, and Dominos pizza are close to undervalued now if you take a long term view.

Facebook on fundamentals and projected growth is a buy. Potential regulation, however, gives me pause.

I'm sorry. I'm a cretin when it comes to this stuff, but WTF is so special about Domino's and their crappy pizza? I would think the posters here would be high on the Little Caesar's stock.

Dominos out performed Amazon over the past decade by a wide margin.

10,000 in Dominos 10 years ago is worth $245,000 today with an effective current yield of 23% on your original investment.

In comparison, 10,000 in Amazon is worth $172,000 and pays no dividend.

Dominos forecasts yearly sales increases between 8-10% a year over the next three years and they've reached an inflection point where most of the additional revenue falls to the bottom line.

Historically they've blown away earnings estimates. Management executes.

Unlike Starbucks, Dominos franchises their stores. This burden of startup costs falls on the franchisee but don't weep for them because the average payback on startup costs is less than 2 years and the owner can expect over 50% a year return on cash.

The pizza is meh but it's affordable and their technology and loyalty program generate return business. Their wings are damn good and rival buffalo wild wings and cost less.

In any event, I like the company and they're shareholder friendly. They use free cash flow to back stock and increase their dividends, 20% on average the past few years.

$14 billion market cap and still plenty of growth opportunity for new stores.

That's my thesis for going long, anyway. And yeah, it hits the spot when inebriated

There's a lot of money in that cheap pizza.



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