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House Prices 2021 | Crash Still Coming? (Should You Buy)
DerekJohnson
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 70,290 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fenl5fgrFDMComments
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They've been saying this for 5 years.
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Prices are rising do to the lack of supply. At least on the west coast, the housing inventory is at record lows. Combined with record low mortgage rates, prices have to go up. When the pandemic is over, expect to see interest rates to rise and add to that an increase of supply, you'll have a housing price correction.
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If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.
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Or mass foreclosures
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"There are thousands of sub markets". Yep, all real estate is local.
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All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.BleachedAnusDawg said:If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.
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Disclaimer: zero research into this. Just shooting from the hip:
How much of the lack of inventory now is linked to an inability to foreclose or evict? Is it possible that restrictions will be lifted and foreclosures and evictions/sales will flood the market (relatively speaking), depressing prices? In 2008, the economy crashed, and suddenly the market was flooded with foreclosures and short sales. The difference this time is that Regular Joe has been propped up alongside big banks/etc. What happens when that support ends? Unemployment reached record highs in 2020 and still remains awfully high. It's hard to believe that all of those jobs will just be magically restored once everyone is vaccinated and restriction are lifted. Many employers have either closed down shop or how figured out ways to work lean (from an employee count standpoint) that they won't reverse unless they absolutely have to.
Jobs will take time to recover is my point, and I doubt all of these temporary measures to protect homeowners and tenants will last long enough that there won't be a substantial gap. With how low inventory is now, it won't take much of an increase to have a significant impact on price.
At least that's my theory. I hope values stay high long enough for me to finish my current remodel and borrow against it, but I work incredibly slowly, so I doubt it. -
The stuff for renters and landlords is going to be extended another 2 years. At some point the chickens have to come home to roost, though.
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At this rate they'll extend it enough so the state gets the homes for failure to pay property taxesBleachedAnusDawg said:The stuff for renters and landlords is going to be extended another 2 years. At some point the chickens have to come home to roost, though.
5 or 7 years -
I disagree with both of you.YellowSnow said:
All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.BleachedAnusDawg said:If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.
I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?
It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
