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House Prices 2021 | Crash Still Coming? (Should You Buy)

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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,587 Founders Club
    On the other hand buyer remorse stories are popping up after the rush last year to GTFO.

    The other thing is when do people feel like a sucker for continuing to pay rent?

    Biden should let the chickens come home now while he can still blame Trump
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  • BearsWiin
    BearsWiin Member Posts: 5,076
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    Now is also a good time to own in Aptos
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  • dflea
    dflea Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,287 Swaye's Wigwam
    RaceBannon said:

    On the other hand buyer remorse stories are popping up after the rush last year to GTFO.

    The other thing is when do people feel like a sucker for continuing to pay rent?

    Biden should let the chickens come home now while he can still blame Trump

    Now, THIS is showing some political savvy.

    "But, but, BUSH!!" lost something in year 3 or 4.

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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,711 Founders Club
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    Hey man you don't need to convince me of the flood of people leaving the big cities. I've already done it and have made some significant dealing in hypotheticals money as a result. But there remains a shit ton of high paying work in places like Seattle that's not all going 100% virtual. I think condos in downtown are going to suffer for a while, but my gut tells me single family detached doesn't see much of a correction.

    I'd love to see some data on what percentage of Seattle family homes are behind on their mortgages, both for owner occupied as well as rental properties. All my friends who own single family rentals are still collecting the rent on time.
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,746 Standard Supporter
    YellowSnow said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    Hey man you don't need to convince me of the flood of people leaving the big cities. I've already done it and have made some significant dealing in hypotheticals money as a result. But there remains a shit ton of high paying work in places like Seattle that's not all going 100% virtual. I think condos in downtown are going to suffer for a while, but my gut tells me single family detached doesn't see much of a correction.

    I'd love to see some data on what percentage of Seattle family homes are behind on their mortgages, both for owner occupied as well as rental properties. All my friends who own single family rentals are still collecting the rent on time.
    Rental side apartments are at 8% default, SFH rentals are 15-20% but vary by area and market. SFH market is still cooking away because there is no space to build new SFH's in Seattle.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,587 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    At the start of Feb our hot water heater went out. No worries we rent so not my problem. Called the property manager and they get a plumber out and he gets it running and tells them its time for a new one. They dick around and do nothing

    Two weeks later its out again. This is a Wednesday. Call the property manager and they get a plumber out. I'm laughing with the plumber at how fucking stupid the property manager is. He tells them we need a new one. Property manager says we can get the part in by next Tuesday. We have no hot water keep in mind.

    I tell then no. Guy number 3 shows up. He starts asking me what the issue is. I ask him who he works for. I'm with the property manager.

    So did you talk to either of the two plumbers you sent here?

    Uh no

    Don't you think that would have been a good idea in my Michael Corleone voice. Dude is near tears I kid you not when my wife steps in to stop the fight. This is Thursday

    Friday the plumber sends their field super by and this guy actually gives a shit and has it fixed by Friday night. As always there are dumb fucks and there are get it done guys.

    The moral of this story is that I turned to my wife and said - why the fuck are we paying rent when we don't have to and they can't kick us out?


    Because I am not wired that way. Sad. But now I want to threaten them with that just to see how they react.

    Not paying the rent when you have the funds is immoral.
    Under what moral code? As I recall your an atheist

    A serious question

    I agree with you by the way
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