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House Prices 2021 | Crash Still Coming? (Should You Buy)

13

Comments

  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,593 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    At the start of Feb our hot water heater went out. No worries we rent so not my problem. Called the property manager and they get a plumber out and he gets it running and tells them its time for a new one. They dick around and do nothing

    Two weeks later its out again. This is a Wednesday. Call the property manager and they get a plumber out. I'm laughing with the plumber at how fucking stupid the property manager is. He tells them we need a new one. Property manager says we can get the part in by next Tuesday. We have no hot water keep in mind.

    I tell then no. Guy number 3 shows up. He starts asking me what the issue is. I ask him who he works for. I'm with the property manager.

    So did you talk to either of the two plumbers you sent here?

    Uh no

    Don't you think that would have been a good idea in my Michael Corleone voice. Dude is near tears I kid you not when my wife steps in to stop the fight. This is Thursday

    Friday the plumber sends their field super by and this guy actually gives a shit and has it fixed by Friday night. As always there are dumb fucks and there are get it done guys.

    The moral of this story is that I turned to my wife and said - why the fuck are we paying rent when we don't have to and they can't kick us out?


    Because I am not wired that way. Sad. But now I want to threaten them with that just to see how they react.

    Not paying the rent when you have the funds is immoral.
    Under what moral code? As I recall your an atheist

    A serious question

    I agree with you by the way
    The don’t be a dick a don’t steal from your fellow man moral code.

    There’s good lessons in the good book even if one is an atheist.
    Yes there are. The hardest working most honest guy i knew was an atheist

    People that tell you how religious they are tend to rip you off
    Same as it as ever was.
    I reckon so
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,286
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    I would wait until the pandemic is well behind us to run with that theory. A lot of us like the city and like urban and we? are ready for it to work again.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,286
    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    At the start of Feb our hot water heater went out. No worries we rent so not my problem. Called the property manager and they get a plumber out and he gets it running and tells them its time for a new one. They dick around and do nothing

    Two weeks later its out again. This is a Wednesday. Call the property manager and they get a plumber out. I'm laughing with the plumber at how fucking stupid the property manager is. He tells them we need a new one. Property manager says we can get the part in by next Tuesday. We have no hot water keep in mind.

    I tell then no. Guy number 3 shows up. He starts asking me what the issue is. I ask him who he works for. I'm with the property manager.

    So did you talk to either of the two plumbers you sent here?

    Uh no

    Don't you think that would have been a good idea in my Michael Corleone voice. Dude is near tears I kid you not when my wife steps in to stop the fight. This is Thursday

    Friday the plumber sends their field super by and this guy actually gives a shit and has it fixed by Friday night. As always there are dumb fucks and there are get it done guys.

    The moral of this story is that I turned to my wife and said - why the fuck are we paying rent when we don't have to and they can't kick us out?


    Because I am not wired that way. Sad. But now I want to threaten them with that just to see how they react.

    Not paying the rent when you have the funds is immoral.
    Under what moral code? As I recall your an atheist

    A serious question

    I agree with you by the way
    *you're
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  • Blu82
    Blu82 Member Posts: 1,673
    DON'T COME TO IDAHO.
    IDAHO IS FULL!
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  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,681
    dflea said:

    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    At the start of Feb our hot water heater went out. No worries we rent so not my problem. Called the property manager and they get a plumber out and he gets it running and tells them its time for a new one. They dick around and do nothing

    Two weeks later its out again. This is a Wednesday. Call the property manager and they get a plumber out. I'm laughing with the plumber at how fucking stupid the property manager is. He tells them we need a new one. Property manager says we can get the part in by next Tuesday. We have no hot water keep in mind.

    I tell then no. Guy number 3 shows up. He starts asking me what the issue is. I ask him who he works for. I'm with the property manager.

    So did you talk to either of the two plumbers you sent here?

    Uh no

    Don't you think that would have been a good idea in my Michael Corleone voice. Dude is near tears I kid you not when my wife steps in to stop the fight. This is Thursday

    Friday the plumber sends their field super by and this guy actually gives a shit and has it fixed by Friday night. As always there are dumb fucks and there are get it done guys.

    The moral of this story is that I turned to my wife and said - why the fuck are we paying rent when we don't have to and they can't kick us out?


    Because I am not wired that way. Sad. But now I want to threaten them with that just to see how they react.

    Not paying the rent when you have the funds is immoral.
    Under what moral code? As I recall your an atheist

    A serious question

    I agree with you by the way
    I hope there's something grand awaiting people who do the right thing even when they can get away with doing the wrong thing.

    There probably isn't, but I hope there is anyway.



    I think there isn't. But I also think people spend more time than they think doing the wrong thing when it was probably equal effort doing it right.
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  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,168
    creepycoug said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    I would wait until the pandemic is well behind us to run with that theory. A lot of us like the city and like urban and we? are ready for it to work again.
    Hey I'm with you. I didn't choose Manhattan for the acreage and fresh air.

    I'm predicting a lot of "micro-migrations" if you will. City folk moving to the burbs. Burb folks moving to the boonies. Old boonies becoming new burbs. New pockets of communities sprouting up because a 4-hour round-trip commute is doable when it's only once a week instead of five.

    But the net result will be a declustering of the overpriced hubs.
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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,711 Founders Club
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    creepycoug said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    I would wait until the pandemic is well behind us to run with that theory. A lot of us like the city and like urban and we? are ready for it to work again.
    Hey I'm with you. I didn't choose Manhattan for the acreage and fresh air.

    I'm predicting a lot of "micro-migrations" if you will. City folk moving to the burbs. Burb folks moving to the boonies. Old boonies becoming new burbs. New pockets of communities sprouting up because a 4-hour round-trip commute is doable when it's only once a week instead of five.

    But the net result will be a declustering of the overpriced hubs.
    I moved to one of the most popular zoom towns in the west. The prices have gotten to the point where it's not that much cheaper than Seattle in the most desirable locations; BUT you still get way more house a similar price points with far better amenities (and few if any bums). I think for a lot of the deep pockets coming from SEA or SFO it's as much or if not more so about the quality of life vs price.
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,751 Standard Supporter
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    creepycoug said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    YellowSnow said:

    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    If supply were to increase I would agree, but I don't see supply increasing fast enough, especially on the West Coast due to red tape and many areas which have limited land and restrictive zoning. Also, rates would have to go up by double or more IMO to make a significant dent in demand.

    All the desirable places to live with good jerbs have the same issue you describe above- i.e., no land on which to add new supply and restrictive zoning. I agree with your assessment.
    I disagree with both of you.

    I think we're at the very beginning of a major societal shift out of cities and suburbs. Remote work is, if not the new norm, at least going to be much more prevalent than it was pre-pandemic. People are going to begin emphasizing physical proximity to economic/financial hubs a lot less, and you're going to see a sizable migration of middle-to-high income folks from these commutable hubs to outlying, lower cost areas (rural and second-rate cities alike). Why wouldn't people move from high-cost areas that they only live in because of commuting distance if they can work from anywhere?

    It'll take awhile for the markets to begin to fully reflect that shift, but it's coming. Now is a good time to buy land in Bellingham or Cle Elum.
    I would wait until the pandemic is well behind us to run with that theory. A lot of us like the city and like urban and we? are ready for it to work again.
    Hey I'm with you. I didn't choose Manhattan for the acreage and fresh air.

    I'm predicting a lot of "micro-migrations" if you will. City folk moving to the burbs. Burb folks moving to the boonies. Old boonies becoming new burbs. New pockets of communities sprouting up because a 4-hour round-trip commute is doable when it's only once a week instead of five.

    But the net result will be a declustering of the overpriced hubs.
    This has already happened before. Cities will bounce back. It's the short vs long game.
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