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I’m sorry, but economists...

HoustonHusky
HoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,999
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
Are some of the dumbest people around. They amaze me at times.

Had to vent...
«1

Comments

  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,897
    They are people, so I'm sure some are. I've seen precious little evidence that they are especially dumb or that they uniformly agree with one another.

    What got your goat?
  • Blu82
    Blu82 Member Posts: 1,671
    HHusky said:

    They are people, so I'm sure some are. I've seen precious little evidence that they are especially dumb or that they uniformly agree with one another.

    What got your goat?

    Probably dumbfucks that think like you.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,036

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Chintresting. He's basically saying, in a nutshell, that the game works.


    I still cling to one basic thought: don't we need real value in there somewhere for growth?
  • HoustonHusky
    HoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,999

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    You'd be amazed at the US GDP multiple of funding gender studies in Pakistan...

    I'm sure if somebody asked him he'd realize/admit the only reason the interest rates are low is because the Fed is monetizing the debt...I doubt he'd ever admit that process drives massive asset inflation currently happening that isn't recorded in the Fed inflation stats. I'm sure the guy LOVES Krugman.

    Seriously though...the idea the govt has a list of infrastructure/R&D projects to fund that have any meaningful return is not realistic, much less $2 trillion worth of them. You may get a few more worthless Solyndras out of it, but most of that money is for bailing out cities and states on money already spent, and the idea bailing out NYC or the state of Illinois from their funding mess has a 5x multiple (or whatever this guy was using) is just comical. Its amazing at times how people say things with such authority that if they stopped to think about it for a second they would realize it sounds completely asinine.


  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,036

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    You'd be amazed at the US GDP multiple of funding gender studies in Pakistan...

    I'm sure if somebody asked him he'd realize/admit the only reason the interest rates are low is because the Fed is monetizing the debt...I doubt he'd ever admit that process drives massive asset inflation currently happening that isn't recorded in the Fed inflation stats. I'm sure the guy LOVES Krugman.

    Seriously though...the idea the govt has a list of infrastructure/R&D projects to fund that have any meaningful return is not realistic, much less $2 trillion worth of them. You may get a few more worthless Solyndras out of it, but most of that money is for bailing out cities and states on money already spent, and the idea bailing out NYC or the state of Illinois from their funding mess has a 5x multiple (or whatever this guy was using) is just comical. Its amazing at times how people say things with such authority that if they stopped to think about it for a second they would realize it sounds completely asinine.


    They tyranny of the experts. When someone has the ballz to challenge them, many reveal how thin the exterior of their knowledge really happens to be.
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,839
    Economis are important
  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,268

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    You'd be amazed at the US GDP multiple of funding gender studies in Pakistan...

    I'm sure if somebody asked him he'd realize/admit the only reason the interest rates are low is because the Fed is monetizing the debt...I doubt he'd ever admit that process drives massive asset inflation currently happening that isn't recorded in the Fed inflation stats. I'm sure the guy LOVES Krugman.

    Seriously though...the idea the govt has a list of infrastructure/R&D projects to fund that have any meaningful return is not realistic, much less $2 trillion worth of them. You may get a few more worthless Solyndras out of it, but most of that money is for bailing out cities and states on money already spent, and the idea bailing out NYC or the state of Illinois from their funding mess has a 5x multiple (or whatever this guy was using) is just comical. Its amazing at times how people say things with such authority that if they stopped to think about it for a second they would realize it sounds completely asinine.


    There's a lot of freeways and bridges that need fixing for starters. And I'm all for places like Seattle building out mass transit even if it's a bit of a boondoggle. I also think we need to treat China as a Sputnik type moment and spend money on military R&D accordingly. We don't want to let those guys catch up to us in military technology. Historically, the spin offs from military R&D have been very advantageous.
    I'll keep this cool

    In our the other guys spend to much politics we are in the wrong cycle for military spending but we did do some build up the last few years

    Really think we missed an opportunity on infrastructure. Blame who you want on the tug but we had a big spending president with a big spending congress and couldn't get it done.
    Sad how far we've fallen. We used to have no problem building cool shit in the country.


    Take it to the histry bored!
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,036
    dnc said:

    Economis are important

    Howdy there stranger!
  • dflea
    dflea Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,287 Swaye's Wigwam
    edited February 2021
    Blu82 said:

    HHusky said:

    They are people, so I'm sure some are. I've seen precious little evidence that they are especially dumb or that they uniformly agree with one another.

    What got your goat?

    Probably dumbfucks that think like you.
    I think I found an Econ major.

    lol


    Houston is going with the Eeyore narrative, so he's not having anyone tell him any different. 6% sounds pretty optimistic to me, too, but I'm not a practicing economist, so I'm not ready to make a counter-argument. I looked for HH's counter argument, but didn't see it.
  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,436 Founders Club

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    I don't see the poont of bailing out the repo market to the tune of $4 Trillion.

    You're never going to have a truly healthy economy if you don't allow it to crash and burn on occasion and clean itself out. You just blow the bubble up even bigger. Which also causes massive income inequality - the effects of which is a convo for the Tug. (People forget what started the French Revolution. People forget that.)




  • HoustonHusky
    HoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,999
    pawz said:

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    I don't see the poont of bailing out the repo market to the tune of $4 Trillion.

    You're never going to have a truly healthy economy if you don't allow it to crash and burn on occasion and clean itself out. You just blow the bubble up even bigger. Which also causes massive income inequality - the effects of which is a convo for the Tug. (People forget what started the French Revolution. People forget that.)




    This...building an economy where you pay someone to literally burn money and wrack up $$$ in debt which sits on the Federal Reserve balance sheet isn’t a structure for long-term success.
    dflea said:

    Blu82 said:

    HHusky said:

    They are people, so I'm sure some are. I've seen precious little evidence that they are especially dumb or that they uniformly agree with one another.

    What got your goat?

    Probably dumbfucks that think like you.
    I think I found an Econ major.

    lol


    Houston is going with the Eeyore narrative, so he's not having anyone tell him any different. 6% sounds pretty optimistic to me, too, but I'm not a practicing economist, so I'm not ready to make a counter-argument. I looked for HH's counter argument, but didn't see it.
    If you couldn’t get a counter argument out of what I typed (or posted numerous times on this board) not sure I can help you...
  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    Interestingly enough, neither does Krugman. For as much as the guy advocates for seemingly endless spending, he at least wants it to go towards something. Free money to people who are just going to stash and create more of a savings glut helps no one.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,036
    Swaye said:

    pawz said:

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    I don't see the poont of bailing out the repo market to the tune of $4 Trillion.

    You're never going to have a truly healthy economy if you don't allow it to crash and burn on occasion and clean itself out. You just blow the bubble up even bigger. Which also causes massive income inequality - the effects of which is a convo for the Tug. (People forget what started the French Revolution. People forget that.)




    I was thinking this a few days ago. Because I am dumb, I equate complex thoughts to simple ones. It's like selective burning in forests...kill some in a controlled way so a massive rager doesn't start down the road. The Fed has been stopping those controlled burns that we (the forest) has needed for years now, so when the lightning finally does crack this bitch is going to go up hard. Anyway, that's economics to a dummy like me, but yeah, I think when the economy finally can't be propped up anymore all these years of not clearing out the underbrush are going to be disastrous. You guys buy bitcoin, I am buying bullets and beans.

    #hardtarget
    New board motto?
  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,436 Founders Club
    Swaye said:

    pawz said:

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    I don't see the poont of bailing out the repo market to the tune of $4 Trillion.

    You're never going to have a truly healthy economy if you don't allow it to crash and burn on occasion and clean itself out. You just blow the bubble up even bigger. Which also causes massive income inequality - the effects of which is a convo for the Tug. (People forget what started the French Revolution. People forget that.)




    I was thinking this a few days ago. Because I am dumb, I equate complex thoughts to simple ones. It's like selective burning in forests...kill some in a controlled way so a massive rager doesn't start down the road. The Fed has been stopping those controlled burns that we (the forest) has needed for years now, so when the lightning finally does crack this bitch is going to go up hard. Anyway, that's economics to a dummy like me, but yeah, I think when the economy finally can't be propped up anymore all these years of not clearing out the underbrush are going to be disastrous. You guys buy bitcoin, I am buying bullets and beans.

    #hardtarget
    Exactly what I'm buying because I'm still relatively poor.

  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,799 Founders Club

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    Interestingly enough, neither does Krugman. For as much as the guy advocates for seemingly endless spending, he at least wants it to go towards something. Free money to people who are just going to stash and create more of a savings glut helps no one.
    This is why the government should only send the $2K to people like me: It wouldn't be necessary, but, hell, I'd sign a contract if they want that guarantees I will blow all $2K of it in the name of stimulating the economy. I'm a team player like that.
    Basically my weed budget
  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,436 Founders Club

    Guy got a question on if there is a limit to how much money the Fed can print and how large the Federal Government deficits can go and he replied by saying 'the interest rates are incredibly low so the Federal Government should be borrowing everything it can'.

    Same guy literally got several questions about unnaturally high oil prices considering the reduction in usage, rapidly rising housing prices, and if the stock market is overvalued and then went on a long talk about how amazingly low inflation numbers are...

    Guy forecasts 6% GDP growth for at least the next 2 years...

    Had a sweet graph too on how the economy as a whole will be above prepandamic forecasts for 2023 if we pass the large stimulus in front of Congress...admitted under questioning that there is a minor assumption of just using standard multipliers (i.e. if you borrow 10 trillion than the GDP will grow to 50 trillion, or the more the govt spends the better the economy looks...).

    With these folks in charge we might get some of those Chinese empty cities built yet...

    I'd avoid Spanish banks.

    Probably someone like Krugman.

    I'm not opposed to still borrowing money at amazingly low interest rates, but that spending has to go into things like infrastructure and/or R&D which increase productivity and have long term ROI. I don't see the point in just giving everyone $2K.
    Interestingly enough, neither does Krugman. For as much as the guy advocates for seemingly endless spending, he at least wants it to go towards something. Free money to people who are just going to stash and create more of a savings glut helps no one.
    This is why the government should only send the $2K to people like me: It wouldn't be necessary, but, hell, I'd sign a contract if they want that guarantees I will blow all $2K of it in the name of stimulating the economy. I'm a team player like that.
    Basically my weed budget
    No drug tests on commercial job sites?

  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,897
    dflea said:

    Blu82 said:

    HHusky said:

    They are people, so I'm sure some are. I've seen precious little evidence that they are especially dumb or that they uniformly agree with one another.

    What got your goat?

    Probably dumbfucks that think like you.
    I think I found an Econ major.

    lol


    Houston is going with the Eeyore narrative, so he's not having anyone tell him any different. 6% sounds pretty optimistic to me, too, but I'm not a practicing economist, so I'm not ready to make a counter-argument. I looked for HH's counter argument, but didn't see it.
    6% isn't even particularly healthy, unless your argument is that it's healthy when coming back from a massive decline. Maybe that's the thinking here, but it sounds pretty unlikely to me as well. There are better arguments for "going big" than promises of the short term growth rate. I completely agree with everyone who has chimed in about updating infrastructure. It was the one wish list item where I was most in sync with the previous administration's rhetoric, at least.