What’s it going to take?
What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.
Comments
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The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.
I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now. -
This makes me think Eeyore doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground, and this country could do a lot of things without "cratering the economy".
As soon as I claim that as fact, though, the wheels will come off the bus and we'll go off a cliff and die in flames.
I don't remember a case study of any global pandemic in Econ class, though, so I don't know what the expectation is.
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It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.dnc said:The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.
I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.
But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term. -
I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here. -
Economy didn't fall off the cliff...the stock market pulled back when it looked like the Fed was going to let their balance sheet come down. They won't make that mistake again...ntxduck said:
It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.dnc said:The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.
I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.
But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term.
The simple fact that good economic news is bad for the stock market whereas bad news (i.e. more Fed $$$) is good for the stock market describes the current situation...
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We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.
Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.
There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym). -
There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.
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Print, Print, Print!Doog_de_Jour said:To finally crash the economy? A massive global pandemic, murder hornets, Sark being hired at Texas, OBK’s 5G, the 2020 election...and yet it seems like many are still living it up like Creep.
What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.
As long as we* keep doing that, Everything* will be just fine -
Sounds like you were born for the COVID-era and have your reads down.Pitchfork51 said:There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.
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In my small economy the outlook couldn’t be any rosier for 2021. High demand, and inquiries for even higher demand in Q2 through the end of the year.
Only problem is the supply side is gonna fuck up the momentum. -
It'll be interesting how much of the industries that are, by their nature, vulnerable to pandemic shutdown we'll see return.haie said:We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.
Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.
There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).
Who in their right mind will invest capital in a restaurant? There will be great demand, but who will want to do it? -
It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here. -
We? have kicked the can down the road to June now
https://patch.com/california/temecula/s/hell5/california-extends-eviction-moratorium-through-june
With the state's eviction moratorium set to expire at the end of January, California lawmakers passed two bills extending it through June.
An eviction moratorium extension and $2.6 billion in rental relief overwhelmingly passed both chambers of California's legislature Thursday amid questions from legislators over the efficacy of the state's rollout plan and the equity of the money's distribution among small, rural areas.
The state's eviction moratorium will be extended until June 30 if signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who supported the legislation during last-minute negotiations among legislative leaders, tenant associations and the powerful California Apartment Association.
California's families need protections NOW from eviction.Today we're announcing an agreement to extend eviction moratorium through 6/30.We're ensuring that up to $2.6 billion in renter aid is administered quickly & equitably. #CaliforniaForAll https://t.co/g0xR3SYasv
— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) January 25, 2021
The Temecula Pea Patch is my source
Speaking of Husky Stadium......... -
My reading comprehension might not be the best, since it’s Friday and I’m skimming through these poasts in between seeing clients, but not a lot of answers to the OP’s question. We know what’s propping things up, but what’s the piece in this economic game of Jenga that will cause things to finally collapse?
Seems like one (or any combination) of these things might be it:
- As Race alluded to, COVID relief running out
- COVID vaccine not working/distributed as fast as we? hoped
- Loan or credit delinquencies finally get to be too much
- More Robinhood/GameStop-esque type bullshit causes investors to lose their damn minds
- The specter of inflation that has been discussed in other threads
- As HoustonHusky said, unemployment numbers getting worse
Again, maybe I’m stressing out for nothing, but it’s seems weird that after the huge dip in March of 2020, the year closed with this:
S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
Dow Jones gained 6.6%. -
HoustonHusky said:
I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
The stock market is not the economy. -
somewhere not inherently evil. a place not founded on a history of racism and genocide. a place with no white people.creepycoug said:
It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here. -
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Technically not in a recession since Q4 saw a 6% growth in real GDP and Q3 was a whopping 33% in real GDP. That’s two straight quarters of growth. Not a recession.FremontTroll said:HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
The stock market is not the economy.
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@creepycoug
I would say larger gyms and corporate breweries (multiple locations, brew their own beer, distribution, godly covered outdoor areas like Heathen in downtown Van) will be just fine, and replicating them toward the end of this (whenever the fuck that is) is a decent investment.
Too drunk to quote you properly, so I apologise (since it's your fucking bored) -
The Fed giveth
The Fed taketh -
Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself
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tick tick tick ...FireCohen said:Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself
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I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:
The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.
Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.
So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.
I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this. -
The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on
The cliff notes to @whlinder -
What happens when the only people with Confidence are the people with no money?RaceBannon said:The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on
The cliff notes to @whlinder -
Our now retired staff economist, PhD dude from Cal, was advising one of my kids about her possible career directions. He’s the one who encouraged her to seek out a LAC for undergrad because they are particularly adept at interdisciplinary instruction given that’s what they are all about. His take is that the future is going to be all about cross- disciplinary solutions to problems, and he cites what you said as example 101. That we have these economis theories that make sense and should predict human action100%, except that it doesn’t.whlinder said:I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:
The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.
Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.
So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.
I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this.
Hence the burgeoning dev of economis/psychology curricula and focus. -
Indeed, though I still maintain confidence doesn't matter on the bottom layer of the hierarchy of needs. Confident or not, you need to eat, and that's still economic activity, just not as much if you're confident.RaceBannon said:The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on
The cliff notes to @whlinder
Yeah it's funny cause I'm an Econ grad from UW (went for the BS track but also got a Stat minor) and all that theory was nice but none of it really holds in practice. The econometrics and game theory was great though. Luckily all of it taught me how to think about problem solving instead of how to "do economics".creepycoug said:
Our now retired staff economist, PhD dude from Cal, was advising one of my kids about her possible career directions. He’s the one who encouraged her to seek out a LAC for undergrad because they are particularly adept at interdisciplinary instruction given that’s what they are all about. His take is that the future is going to be all about cross- disciplinary solutions to problems, and he cites what you said as example 101. That we have these economis theories that make sense and should predict human action100%, except that it doesn’t.whlinder said:I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:
The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.
Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.
So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.
I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this.
Hence the burgeoning dev of economis/psychology curricula and focus.
Since Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning is all the rage now I would love to consider those emerging capability in the construct of behavioral economics. -
If I had to do it all over again, I would have taken more economics and statistics classes at UW. I find both those fields fascinating.whlinder said:
Indeed, though I still maintain confidence doesn't matter on the bottom layer of the hierarchy of needs. Confident or not, you need to eat, and that's still economic activity, just not as much if you're confident.RaceBannon said:The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on
The cliff notes to @whlinder
Yeah it's funny cause I'm an Econ grad from UW (went for the BS track but also got a Stat minor) and all that theory was nice but none of it really holds in practice. The econometrics and game theory was great though. Luckily all of it taught me how to think about problem solving instead of how to "do economics".creepycoug said:
Our now retired staff economist, PhD dude from Cal, was advising one of my kids about her possible career directions. He’s the one who encouraged her to seek out a LAC for undergrad because they are particularly adept at interdisciplinary instruction given that’s what they are all about. His take is that the future is going to be all about cross- disciplinary solutions to problems, and he cites what you said as example 101. That we have these economis theories that make sense and should predict human action100%, except that it doesn’t.whlinder said:I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:
The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.
Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.
So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.
I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this.
Hence the burgeoning dev of economis/psychology curricula and focus.
Since Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning is all the rage now I would love to consider those emerging capability in the construct of behavioral economics. -
It is certainly within the realm of possibility within my lifetim.FireCohen said:
