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What’s it going to take?

2

Comments

  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    edited January 2021
    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself
  • pawzpawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,907 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself

    tick tick tick ...
  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    pawz said:


    tick tick tick ...
    U will be dead before it happens, fuck the next generation it is about us bitch
  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072

    The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on


    The cliff notes to @whlinder

    What happens when the only people with Confidence are the people with no money?
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,807
    whlinder said:

    I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:

    The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.

    Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.

    So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.

    I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this.

    Our now retired staff economist, PhD dude from Cal, was advising one of my kids about her possible career directions. He’s the one who encouraged her to seek out a LAC for undergrad because they are particularly adept at interdisciplinary instruction given that’s what they are all about. His take is that the future is going to be all about cross- disciplinary solutions to problems, and he cites what you said as example 101. That we have these economis theories that make sense and should predict human action100%, except that it doesn’t.

    Hence the burgeoning dev of economis/psychology curricula and focus.
  • pawzpawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,907 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    U will be dead before it happens, fuck the next generation it is about us bitch
    It is certainly within the realm of possibility within my lifetim.
  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
    edited January 2021
    Goldman Sachs: “this week demonstrated that unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil.”


    Food for thought


    https://ussanews.com/News1/2021/01/30/goldman-warns-if-the-short-squeeze-continues-the-entire-market-could-crash-zerohedge/
  • dfleadflea Member Posts: 7,268
    doogie said:

    Goldman Sachs: “this week demonstrated that unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil.”


    Food for thought


    https://ussanews.com/News1/2021/01/30/goldman-warns-if-the-short-squeeze-continues-the-entire-market-could-crash-zerohedge/



    Sounds like bullshit to me.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,312
    edited January 2021

    If I had to do it all over again, I would have taken more economics and statistics classes at UW. I find both those fields fascinating.
    I find them unbearable. I switched from econ to finance because it was stupid. Then again finance is also stupid.

    Actually stats is cool. All data science and analytics stuff is pretty neato nowadays.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,312
    pawz said:

    It is certainly within the realm of possibility within Races lifetim.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,807

    I find them unbearable. I switched from econ to finance because it was stupid. Then again finance is also stupid.

    Actually stats is cool. All data science and analytics stuff is pretty neato nowadays.
    It is certainly marketable; that's for sure.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,807

    Literally everything that will ever happen, will happen in Race's lifetime.
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,996

    My reading comprehension might not be the best, since it’s Friday and I’m skimming through these poasts in between seeing clients, but not a lot of answers to the OP’s question. We know what’s propping things up, but what’s the piece in this economic game of Jenga that will cause things to finally collapse?

    Seems like one (or any combination) of these things might be it:

    - As Race alluded to, COVID relief running out
    - COVID vaccine not working/distributed as fast as we? hoped
    - Loan or credit delinquencies finally get to be too much
    - More Robinhood/GameStop-esque type bullshit causes investors to lose their damn minds
    - The specter of inflation that has been discussed in other threads
    - As HoustonHusky said, unemployment numbers getting worse

    Again, maybe I’m stressing out for nothing, but it’s seems weird that after the huge dip in March of 2020, the year closed with this:

    S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
    Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
    Dow Jones gained 6.6%.

    I'd add:
    Total Dollars in Circulation Gained 35%

    Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.

    The stock market is not the economy.
    Don't disagree with this...shut down the economy and that's what you get. Claiming it started in Dec 2018 is nuts though...
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,807

    I'd add:
    Total Dollars in Circulation Gained 35% Don't disagree with this...shut down the economy and that's what you get. Claiming it started in Dec 2018 is nuts though...
    There will be a reckoning. You can't play games forever. At some point, there has to be something real behind all the Wall Street Malarkey.
  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
    Someone said:

    if each of the estimated 230 million US digital wallet users were valued at $19,900 in 2025, the US digital wallet opportunity would be worth $4.6 trillion.
  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,971 Founders Club
    doogie said:

    What happens when the only people with Confidence are the people with no money?
    The government tells them to get on the train
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