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What’s it going to take?

Doog_de_Jour
Doog_de_Jour Member Posts: 8,041 Standard Supporter
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
To finally crash the economy? A massive global pandemic, murder hornets, Sark being hired at Texas, OBK’s 5G, the 2020 election...and yet it seems like many are still living it up like Creep.





What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.
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Comments

  • dflea
    dflea Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,287 Swaye's Wigwam
    edited January 2021
    This makes me think Eeyore doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground, and this country could do a lot of things without "cratering the economy".

    As soon as I claim that as fact, though, the wheels will come off the bus and we'll go off a cliff and die in flames.

    I don't remember a case study of any global pandemic in Econ class, though, so I don't know what the expectation is.

  • ntxduck
    ntxduck Member Posts: 6,102
    dnc said:

    The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.

    I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.

    It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.

    But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term.
  • HoustonHusky
    HoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,999
    edited January 2021
    ntxduck said:

    dnc said:

    The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.

    I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.

    It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.

    But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term.
    Economy didn't fall off the cliff...the stock market pulled back when it looked like the Fed was going to let their balance sheet come down. They won't make that mistake again...

    The simple fact that good economic news is bad for the stock market whereas bad news (i.e. more Fed $$$) is good for the stock market describes the current situation...

  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,659 Founders Club
    We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.

    Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.

    There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).
  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,661
    There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.
  • doogie
    doogie Member Posts: 15,072

    To finally crash the economy? A massive global pandemic, murder hornets, Sark being hired at Texas, OBK’s 5G, the 2020 election...and yet it seems like many are still living it up like Creep.





    What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.

    Print, Print, Print!

    As long as we* keep doing that, Everything* will be just fine
  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,146 Standard Supporter

    There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.

    Sounds like you were born for the COVID-era and have your reads down.
  • BennyBeaver
    BennyBeaver Member Posts: 13,346
    In my small economy the outlook couldn’t be any rosier for 2021. High demand, and inquiries for even higher demand in Q2 through the end of the year.

    Only problem is the supply side is gonna fuck up the momentum.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,016
    haie said:

    We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.

    Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.

    There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).

    It'll be interesting how much of the industries that are, by their nature, vulnerable to pandemic shutdown we'll see return.

    Who in their right mind will invest capital in a restaurant? There will be great demand, but who will want to do it?
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,016

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,699 Founders Club
    We? have kicked the can down the road to June now

    https://patch.com/california/temecula/s/hell5/california-extends-eviction-moratorium-through-june

    With the state's eviction moratorium set to expire at the end of January, California lawmakers passed two bills extending it through June.

    An eviction moratorium extension and $2.6 billion in rental relief overwhelmingly passed both chambers of California's legislature Thursday amid questions from legislators over the efficacy of the state's rollout plan and the equity of the money's distribution among small, rural areas.

    The state's eviction moratorium will be extended until June 30 if signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who supported the legislation during last-minute negotiations among legislative leaders, tenant associations and the powerful California Apartment Association.

    California's families need protections NOW from eviction.Today we're announcing an agreement to extend eviction moratorium through 6/30.We're ensuring that up to $2.6 billion in renter aid is administered quickly & equitably. #CaliforniaForAll https://t.co/g0xR3SYasv
    — Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) January 25, 2021

    The Temecula Pea Patch is my source

    Speaking of Husky Stadium.........
  • Doog_de_Jour
    Doog_de_Jour Member Posts: 8,041 Standard Supporter
    My reading comprehension might not be the best, since it’s Friday and I’m skimming through these poasts in between seeing clients, but not a lot of answers to the OP’s question. We know what’s propping things up, but what’s the piece in this economic game of Jenga that will cause things to finally collapse?

    Seems like one (or any combination) of these things might be it:

    - As Race alluded to, COVID relief running out
    - COVID vaccine not working/distributed as fast as we? hoped
    - Loan or credit delinquencies finally get to be too much
    - More Robinhood/GameStop-esque type bullshit causes investors to lose their damn minds
    - The specter of inflation that has been discussed in other threads
    - As HoustonHusky said, unemployment numbers getting worse

    Again, maybe I’m stressing out for nothing, but it’s seems weird that after the huge dip in March of 2020, the year closed with this:

    S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
    Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
    Dow Jones gained 6.6%.
  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.

    The stock market is not the economy.
  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,661
    edited January 2021

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?
    somewhere not inherently evil. a place not founded on a history of racism and genocide. a place with no white people.
  • NorthwestFresh
    NorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

    That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

    Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.

    The stock market is not the economy.
    Technically not in a recession since Q4 saw a 6% growth in real GDP and Q3 was a whopping 33% in real GDP. That’s two straight quarters of growth. Not a recession.

  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,659 Founders Club
    edited January 2021
    @creepycoug

    I would say larger gyms and corporate breweries (multiple locations, brew their own beer, distribution, godly covered outdoor areas like Heathen in downtown Van) will be just fine, and replicating them toward the end of this (whenever the fuck that is) is a decent investment.

    Too drunk to quote you properly, so I apologise (since it's your fucking bored)
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,986
    The Fed giveth
    The Fed taketh
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    edited January 2021
    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself
  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,417 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself

    tick tick tick ...
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    pawz said:


    FireCohen said:

    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself

    tick tick tick ...
    U will be dead before it happens, fuck the next generation it is about us bitch
  • doogie
    doogie Member Posts: 15,072

    The economy has always been a sort of confidence game and as long as enough people have confidence the game goes on


    The cliff notes to @whlinder

    What happens when the only people with Confidence are the people with no money?
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,016
    whlinder said:

    I'll toss my hawt taek on this out there:

    The economy as a whole is a perpetual motion machine. Slowing down = economy bad, speeding up = economy good. Different sectors move at different speeds and are either accelerating or decelerating accordingly. March was the closest we've come to ever just stopping the damn thing, but it didn't stop. The basic needs on Maslow's hierarchy still need to be fulfilled. Psychological and self-fulfillment needs were still there, but how they were delivered had to change, but the need didn't go away. It just moved around. People need stuff to do, so they don't stop and the wheel keeps moving.

    Stopping the whole thing would take a massive psychological change where no one could agree on the relative value of goods and services anymore or if tangible asset holders which provide for basic needs decided to quit selling goods.

    So shit could go down, and this somewhat depends on how "crash" is defined (stock market? Housing market? job market? How bad and to what degree?), but 7 billion people need something to do each day with their miserable and pathetic lives and are highly interdependent on each other.

    I'd love to spend some time studying psychology and behavioral economics since I think that's the foundation of the study of all of this.

    Our now retired staff economist, PhD dude from Cal, was advising one of my kids about her possible career directions. He’s the one who encouraged her to seek out a LAC for undergrad because they are particularly adept at interdisciplinary instruction given that’s what they are all about. His take is that the future is going to be all about cross- disciplinary solutions to problems, and he cites what you said as example 101. That we have these economis theories that make sense and should predict human action100%, except that it doesn’t.

    Hence the burgeoning dev of economis/psychology curricula and focus.
  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,417 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    pawz said:


    FireCohen said:

    Lol don’t bet against the fed. As long as usd is still the reserve currency we can tell the world to fuck itself

    tick tick tick ...
    U will be dead before it happens, fuck the next generation it is about us bitch
    It is certainly within the realm of possibility within my lifetim.