S&P 500 at largest deviation w/ stocks in it since 1999
Another example how the Faang stocks plus microsoft and salesforce are just dragging the rest along for the ride.
Last time there was this much difference was 1999 and that was the beginning of the tech bubble bursting that took the Nasdaq down from 9k to a low iirc of around 1200.
Build up cash boys, this is bubbleicious.
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Just to add on, b4 today the S and P was hitting all time highs the past 2 weeks yet only 13% of the stocks in the 500 were sitting at all time highs. Average stock in the S&P is down 25% from it's all time highs and half the stocks in the 500 have no gains in the last two years.
They don't ring bells at the top or bottom, but when Apple, Amazon, are doubling in 6 months, Microsoft going up 30 b/c of tiktok, Zoom and Salesforce going up 40% in a day, tesla up 100% since they announce a split that sound you should be hearing is chimes banging as loud as possible.
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Dude relax and drinking the cool aid like the rest of us.
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Still up year-to-date. What is propping it up? Civil unrest, COVID and jobless reports don't dent it. You may be right.godawgst said:Why the S and P is up 65% from the low, and almost 10% for the year, the average stock in it is not up nearly as much.
Another example how the Faang stocks plus microsoft and salesforce are just dragging the rest along for the ride.
Last time there was this much difference was 1999 and that was the beginning of the tech bubble bursting that took the Nasdaq down from 9k to a low iirc of around 1200.
Build up cash boys, this is bubbleicious. -
Two schools of thought:
1) Bulls out there seeing that consolidation of power influence within large companies that specifically are well positioned for the next wave of business (notably the power of 5G and some of the learnings coming from COVID) is only going to strengthen ... these companies either take over the void of SMBs and/or provide the infrastructure to SMBs going forward (in the case of an Amazon)
2) There will be an inevitable bubble burst as the Dems go too hard too fast on policies that while they may be good in some respects has some value destructive elements in the short term (higher taxes, greater regulations, etc) and there will be some reckoning in that leading into 2022 mid-term elections
My view at this point is to continue to be smart about jumping into your 401K and getting some protections there for these companies being explosive because long term these are good plays ... but in the short term the bubble is going to burst at least a bit and it’s better to protect the cash waiting for that down turn -
Those both make a lot of sense to me. I lean on bubble too and think it has to happen. Do I just liquidate the 401-k to cash now and wait? Or do you still market upside? I know, I know, timing the market is a fool's errand.Tequilla said:Two schools of thought:
1) Bulls out there seeing that consolidation of power influence within large companies that specifically are well positioned for the next wave of business (notably the power of 5G and some of the learnings coming from COVID) is only going to strengthen ... these companies either take over the void of SMBs and/or provide the infrastructure to SMBs going forward (in the case of an Amazon)
2) There will be an inevitable bubble burst as the Dems go too hard too fast on policies that while they may be good in some respects has some value destructive elements in the short term (higher taxes, greater regulations, etc) and there will be some reckoning in that leading into 2022 mid-term elections
My view at this point is to continue to be smart about jumping into your 401K and getting some protections there for these companies being explosive because long term these are good plays ... but in the short term the bubble is going to burst at least a bit and it’s better to protect the cash waiting for that down turn
Your big company influence point is an interesting one. I recommend not posting it in the Tug or the place might actually, physically, explode.
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Given the penalties for liquidating the 401K I just personally don’t think it’s something worth touching for a number of reasons ... one of the biggest being that the fund managers are reading the tea leaves and allocating the holdings accordinglycreepycoug said:
Those both make a lot of sense to me. I lean on bubble too and think it has to happen. Do I just liquidate the 401-k to cash now and wait? Or do you still market upside? I know, I know, timing the market is a fool's errand.Tequilla said:Two schools of thought:
1) Bulls out there seeing that consolidation of power influence within large companies that specifically are well positioned for the next wave of business (notably the power of 5G and some of the learnings coming from COVID) is only going to strengthen ... these companies either take over the void of SMBs and/or provide the infrastructure to SMBs going forward (in the case of an Amazon)
2) There will be an inevitable bubble burst as the Dems go too hard too fast on policies that while they may be good in some respects has some value destructive elements in the short term (higher taxes, greater regulations, etc) and there will be some reckoning in that leading into 2022 mid-term elections
My view at this point is to continue to be smart about jumping into your 401K and getting some protections there for these companies being explosive because long term these are good plays ... but in the short term the bubble is going to burst at least a bit and it’s better to protect the cash waiting for that down turn
Your big company influence point is an interesting one. I recommend not posting it in the Tug or the place might actually, physically, explode.
Market upside is always a unique thought ... I always lean towards companies that are tied to strong industries for the future and leaders within those industries. I will always lean towards companies that are growing and/or looking for ways to continue to leverage their positions for the next thing. Once companies get on the train of trying to keep what they have is the day that I’m willing to take my bets elsewhere.
There will be a day when companies get too big with too much influence that they will at minimum ceremonially be broken up. I can completely see Amazon getting broken up particularly when it comes to something like AWS that doesn’t seem to really fit the consumer centric world they are in for the masses. In the end I suspect these break ups will still have some kind of working relationships and the short term push back will result in growing value as each company separately will turn into growth engines -
Do not liquidate your 401(k). Do you have an IRA or Roth IRA?
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Sorry. Liquidiate 401-K was confusing. I meant, liquidiate my equity positions in the 401-k. I have, for example, a large balance in the S&P just because I like a portfolio to include "just the market" returns. Should I liquidate to money market and wait for the burst? Are we? that confident a bubble pop is on the way?
Said another way, have any of you guys ever been so confident that the market is overheated that you pulled out of equities entirely in your retirement accounts and sat around waiting for the market to drop? -
You should get rid of it all. When the left comes into power they will view anyone with a 401k as the evil rich and destroy them. Cook itcreepycoug said:To be clear guys, I mean liquidate my equity positions in the 401-k. I have, for example, a large balance in the S&P just because I like a portfolio to include "just the market" returns. Should I liquidate to money market and wait for the burst? Are we? that confident a bubble pop is on the way?
Said another way, have any of you guys ever been so confident that the market is overheated that you pulled out of equities entirely in your retirement accounts and sat around waiting for the market to drop? -
I’m a big proponent that if you’re riding long term you take the ups and downs knowing in the long run that you’re a winner
