ELECTION GAME THREAD
Will Trump win against all odds with every American political and media center of gravity against him?
Will Biden give his victory speech with a sippy cup and a bib?
Will HHusky fag this place out no matter what?
Tune in to find out!
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It’s over.
Trump might as well take some knees and hope they just cover the spread... -
I’m hearing Trump is all about the ground game, and Biden’s offense tightens up inside the red zone.
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Pennsylvania 😂
What a joke. -
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Most nervous double digit lead ever
Romney and Hillary tried to sit on a lead they didn't have. I'm sure it will work for Joe this time -
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I have everything crossed. Even my balls.RaceBannon said:Most nervous double digit lead ever
Romney and Hillary tried to sit on a lead they didn't have. I'm sure it will work for Joe this time -
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Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in:
AZ
FL
GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if:
1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump
2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden.
If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag. -
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This means something funky is going on with internal polling numbers.GrundleStiltzkin said: -
My kind of youthjhfstyle24 said:Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in:
AZ
FL
GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if:
1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump
2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden.
If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
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As they say; As go the Amish, so goes the nation
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https://foxnews.com/media/rush-limbaugh-fox-friends-election-trump-biden-enthusiasm
“I look at the conventional wisdom and I make it a point never to follow it. It’s always wrong and it is groupthink. Why you want to go along with what everybody else thinks?” Limbaugh told "Fox & Friends" on Tuesday, adding he believes early voters could be eager to reelect the president and are fed up with the biased media coverage of the administration.
“Everybody thinks it is a bunch of Democrats that hate Trump showing up because they hate the guy and they can’t wait to vote against this and that’s what the media has been telling us,” Limbaugh said.
“They are fed up with the way he has been lied about, they are fed up with this Russian conspiracy hoax and this impeachment hoax, they are fed up with the attempts to destroy this country via Antifa and Black Lives Matter and they are tired of watching the cities burn.”
“They’re tired of watching Democratic governors and mayors shut down their cities and states. What's to say this early voting isn’t a bunch of Republicans and Trump supporters showing up to get it out of their system?” he asked.
“I think there is a whole different way of looking at this. It is my way of looking at it and I welcome everybody to join me in my way of looking at this because my way is victory, my way is Trump winning and preserving the American way of life," he said, adding that he is hoping the left is defeated by a healthy margin and President Trump is given a second term. -
Rush and Race wouldn't steer you wrong
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https://youtu.be/zj8NuNZBCOE
