ELECTION 2020 POLE

Swaye

Okay, we are in close now fags. Have some hair on your balls and do it. @Doog_de_Jour exempted of course.

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Sledog

https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192?s=20

It's all over. What's up with those colorado people?

GrundleStiltzkin

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/11/02/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-five-battleground-states/

There’s more heat than light in this out this morning, but the heat’s worth checking out anyway. , which had Joe Biden up ten points in the overall sample of 1,000 registered voters conducted between Thursday and Saturday.

National polling is relatively meaningless, however. What about the battlegrounds? NBC/WSJ surveyed 800 more registered voters in twelve states, and found a closer race:

In the 12-most competitive battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden is ahead of Trump by a combined 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, according to a survey of 800 additional registered voters in those states interviewed Sunday by NBC/WSJ pollsters.

Biden’s lead in these states was 6 points in our Oct. 29-31 NBC News/WSJ poll, 51 percent to 45 percent, although that movement is within the margin of error.

Important context, however: Trump won these same states by a combined 2 points in 2016, 49 percent to 47 percent.

There are reasons to take this poll with a grain of salt, but let’s stick with the numbers first. According to the data, NBC/WSJ asked the same question of battleground voters three weeks ago (10/9-12) and showed Biden up by ten, 52/42, which is well outside the margin of error. If we can rely on this poll, at least for trending, it appears Trump has begun to surge in October — although that might not have been early enough, given the mail-in balloting and early in-person voting that began in September.

Another data point isn’t so cheery. The pollster asked what chances each candidate had of getting the respondents’ votes. For Biden, 43% said “no chance at all,” while 49% said the same thing about Trump. That would suggest a very narrow path to victory for Trump at best even in these battleground states he already won.

pawz

https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1323070213902929920?s=20

The energy certainly says Trump. Those ain't Slo Joe's people!

PurpleThrobber

https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192?s=20

It's all over. What's up with those colorado people?

Lots of Daddy Issues.

Like way more than our mere NW brains can comprehend.

GrundleStiltzkin

https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/11/02/bidens-last-minute-hail-mary-gun-control/

For months now, disappointed liberals have been scratching their heads and bemoaning one question hanging over the 2020 elections. Why aren’t Democrats talking about gun control? It was all the rage last year, but now you don’t hear a peep about if from almost any of their candidates and it wasn’t even mentioned at the Democratic National Convention. The reasons seemed fairly obvious to me and it looked as if the issue had been put to rest for this cycle. But then, only this weekend, Democratic candidate Joe Biden broke the mold and ended the silence. His Twitter account chimed in, seemingly out of nowhere, with a promise to infringe on your Second Amendment rights if he’s sworn in as the 46th president.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1322976702419636225

This was just a curious decision on so many levels. First of all, did Joe Biden tweet that himself, or did one of his aides go rogue and do it without consulting him? (Whether Biden does his own tweeting all or even some of the time remains an open question. It’s a common opinion that he doesn’t.) In any event, it’s out there on the record and it will be ascribed to him anyway, so it’s a bit late to worry about that.

Also, it’s not as if Biden has made any secret of his intentions. All of his Second Amendment restriction plans are still posted on his campaign website even if nobody is talking about them in public.

But why tweet this? And more to the point, why now? Gun sales are through the roof all across the country, including among Democrats and liberals who are fearful of the violence engulfing the streets. Any discussions of making it even more difficult to legally purchase a firearm for your own protection aren’t likely to go over very well with anyone but the most hardened of the liberal base who were going to vote for Biden in any event. All this does is throw ammunition to the Trump campaign to use in the final hours as people prepare to go to the polls.

Or could there be something more here than meets the eye? This is the sort of thing any Democratic presidential candidate would be expected to say in more normal times, primarily to instill confidence in their base that they will support the liberal gun-grabbing agenda. Is Biden’s team looking at the numbers in some of the swing states and beginning to worry about turnout among their own people as opposed to any persuadable moderates that may still be sitting on the fence? If so, this could be a bid to drive the last few of them out to the polls.

That’s not an entirely crazy idea. Even the Washington Post admitted this weekend that the Biden campaign was growing increasingly worried about the polling in Pennsylvania and fear that his previous, slim lead could be slipping away at the eleventh hour. But this doesn’t sound like a move that would help him much, if at all, on that score. The vast majority of Biden’s support in the Keystone State is going to come from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. But the latter city is currently overrun by mobs and is going up in flames. Philly is one of the places where the demand for guns is off the charts in a Democratic stronghold and people can’t even get applications for permits, to say nothing of laying their hands on a legal firearm. Something tells me that even his base there doesn’t want to hear any gun control claptrap at the moment.

Or was this just a slip-up on someone’s part on Team Biden? I honestly can’t come up with a viable explanation for this other than poor management in the final stretch of the campaign. Either way, Trump’s people need to pick up this ball and run with it all night.

WestlinnDuck

Wall Street rallying lately. I'm assuming that money is flowing in assumption of a Trump victory. Doubling the tax rate on capital gains per dem promises isn't good for holding or buying but for selling in 2020 in anticipation of 2021 tax increases.

BleachedAnusDawg

The Tug is the only thing pulling me to thinking Trump wins. As much as I don't want Biden to win, I think he still does. The fix is in.

GrundleStiltzkin

The Tug is the only thing pulling me to thinking Trump wins. As much as I don't want Biden to win, I think he still does. The fix is in.

Today, I think Biden wins too. No fix needed.

Pitchfork51

https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192?s=20

It's all over. What's up with those colorado people?

Lots of Daddy Issues.

Like way more than our mere NW brains can comprehend.

I comprehend

RoadTrip

Wall Street rallying lately. I'm assuming that money is flowing in assumption of a Trump victory. Doubling the tax rate on capital gains per dem promises isn't good for holding or buying but for selling in 2020 in anticipation of 2021 tax increases.

Before today's gains, it was down 6% over the last week or so. Were those sellers taking gains in anticipation of a Biden win?

GrundleStiltzkin

https://twitter.com/shem_infinite/status/1323395465375875074?s=21

Pitchfork51

Fuck all you commie haters

YellowSnow

Fuck all you commie haters

Donate @Pitchfork51 you free beer loving pinko commie fag!!

Pitchfork51

Fuck all you commie haters
Donate @Pitchfork51 you free beer loving pinko commie fag!!

Just waiting for biden to win.

Then everyone who wants him to including you can subsidize me

YellowSnow

Fuck all you commie haters
Donate @Pitchfork51 you free beer loving pinko commie fag!!
Just waiting for biden to win.

Then everyone who wants him to including you can subsidize me

Nothing's change with me. I already subsidize you.

RoadTrip

If Tuesday night it looks like Trump's going to win the rest of the week is going to get ugly

What does the stock market do?

Pitchfork51

If Tuesday night it looks like Trump's going to win the rest of the week is going to get ugly
What does the stock market do?

Board up?

Bob_C

If Tuesday night it looks like Trump's going to win the rest of the week is going to get ugly
What does the stock market do?

Down at first, too much crazy wasted stimulus anticipated already baked in and big political contributions made with no personal payoffs. A year from now much higher if Trump wins.

GrundleStiltzkin

A guym I follow for nuclear power hot takes got banned

https://twitter.com/genivnuclearinc/status/1323484185529561088?s=21

Tequilla

If Tuesday night it looks like Trump's going to win the rest of the week is going to get ugly
What does the stock market do?

Great question and I think it's hard to look back at 2016 and extrapolate

2016 there was a pretty sizeable uptick after Trump won and that massively continued into 2017

The great unknown will be where COVID goes and where we are with respect to vaccines and the ability to fully resume normalcy (if that ever truly returns) ... put a vaccine out too early and the results become substandard and I could see things tank hard. If it comes out on time and largely works then I could see a rocket ship of a bull market because there's a lot of pent up energy and demand out there.