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Election Poll - Call It

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  • LebamDawg
    LebamDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,843 Swaye's Wigwam
    Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
    One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

    So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

    Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

    but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
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  • Houhusky
    Houhusky Member Posts: 5,537
    Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
    LebamDawg said:

    One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

    So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

    Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

    but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often

    most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

    It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

    Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
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  • LebamDawg
    LebamDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,843 Swaye's Wigwam
    Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
    Houhusky said:

    LebamDawg said:

    One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

    So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

    Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

    but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often

    most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

    It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

    Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
    so kind of a SWAG
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  • Houhusky
    Houhusky Member Posts: 5,537
    Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
    LebamDawg said:

    Houhusky said:

    LebamDawg said:

    One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

    So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

    Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

    but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often

    most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

    It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

    Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
    so kind of a SWAG
    yeah, a small one and one that will likely favor republicans this time around.
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  • HoustonHusky
    HoustonHusky Member Posts: 6,011
    edited October 2020
    Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
    Repubs voted Trump 95% in the primary...one of the highest % for a candidate running for reelection. There are some Repubs that won’t vote for him, but it’s not a significant amount.

    They are going to really have to cheat in Philly...the rest of the state is much more favorable to Trump this time around. It is going to be egregious, and they still will likely get away with it.

    If Trump wins Wisconsin and Minnesota it won’t matter, but that is asking a lot.
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  • DJDuck
    DJDuck Member Posts: 5,970
    Trump will win this relatively easy.
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,519 Standard Supporter
    edited October 2020
    Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...
    EsophagealFeces said:

    I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.

    The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.

    The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
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  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,326
    Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...
    PurpleThrobber said:

    EsophagealFeces said:

    I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.

    The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.

    The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
    Lewis county will probably be fine too. The rest of the I-5 corridor could be a shitshow tho.
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