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Election Poll - Call It
Comments
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Dems dominate mail in votingGrundleStiltzkin said:
In Florida? Not a poll watcher, what’s this shit about?Houhusky said:
Thats in person only...NorthwestFresh said:
models say Dems need a ~650K lead on election day to hold off the Republican in person voting charge.
Republicans dominate in person (especially election day) voting
Democrat voters mailed 486,797 more ballots than Republicans so far.
Early in person voting has returned 483,443 Republicans, 392,530 democrats, & 171,960 NPAs voted in-person. so far.
Republican EV (early in person voting) up ~90,0000 more than democrats so far. How are NPA (non party affiliation) breaking? Republican in person voting will continue to chip away for the next 2 weeks.
You can model based on general voter trends and how much of the electorate has not yet voted to get a decent guestimate on how many mail in votes Democrats need to be ahead on election day to hold the line against the election day republican surge. -
Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.Trump has to win big in Florida and NC to get to the real conversation of MN, MI, WI, PA, AZ
If Trump wins any 3 of the 5 than he wins it all. If he wins only AZ and WI (2 lowest value) they very likely get the 269 -269 tie.
WI poling is TIGHT with 5% to Jorgenson (secret trump voters?)
AZ Hispanics and first generation in AZ are breaking hard to Trump
MN state democrats aren't tarnished by the national dems, Trump probably not going to win here
MI who the hell knows
The new registration numbers in PA for R's looks good but Trump has to win PA by enough that they cant stuff the boxes in philly (around 70,000 extra votes)
This pole nerd is by far the best smaller guy, raises money on streams to run his own shit... https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.TYFYS
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Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...Middle east peace deals are easy. Nothing to see.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Which one of you is this?
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
Seriously, talked to a good friend who is also very political today and we both said we were cautiously optimistic Trump would win.GrundleStiltzkin said:Which one of you is this?
I can't help but feel that he's peaking in November like a good Pete Carroll team while Biden is flailing like a browns team that started off 2-0 only to end 5-11. -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Can I change my vote?
edit: Actually rereleasing this next week so we can get the "near election" snapshot. Trump killed it last night. I think this thing is moving Trumps direction. -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.No result will surprise me
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
That's pretty much where I'm at. Really thought Biden had it in the bag until the last week, but i feel like lots of stuff is moving Trump's direction. All that said, mail in ballots, ballot harvesting, etc. make this one almost impossible to call. Too many variables I do not completely understand.GrundleStiltzkin said:No result will surprise me
