Election Poll - Call It
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
This made me grin IRL - bigly.Houhusky said:
Before Aristotle there was Plato and before Plato there was @RaceBannonRaceBannon said:If there are no undecided voters left why are the polls tightening? Either they have been bullshit or people are still deciding
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Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.I was almost coming around to thinking Trump might pull this out and then I read shite like this and realize the nutjob left are going to lie, cheat, and steal this election.
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
My guess is they know the youth and Black vote is staying home so they need to go ahead and vote for them. Since they would have voted for Biden it really isn't even cheatingHoustonHusky said:I was almost coming around to thinking Trump might pull this out and then I read shite like this and realize the nutjob left are going to lie, cheat, and steal this election.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
YepRaceBannon said:
My guess is they know the youth and Black vote is staying home so they need to go ahead and vote for them. Since they would have voted for Biden it really isn't even cheatingHoustonHusky said:I was almost coming around to thinking Trump might pull this out and then I read shite like this and realize the nutjob left are going to lie, cheat, and steal this election.
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Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.The fix is in
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Have deadlines? most state supremes are throwing all the rules out. no such thing as a deadline anymore
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.The corruption in Philly sure looks like its going to be too much.
Best case is ACB on the court on Monday, goes to the supreme court, struck down the same week... Even then, if they are openly accepting non matched ballots they will just do it anyways.
Trump will have to win MI, WI, AZ if he drops PA.
AZ easy pickup as long as nothing big happens, Maybe WI is actually in play looking at the party breakdown of mail in and early voting... -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often -
Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.LebamDawg said:One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again. -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
so kind of a SWAGHouhusky said:
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.LebamDawg said:One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again. -
Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.Pollster Frank Luntz: If Trump defies polls again 'my profession is done'
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pollster-frank-luntz-if-trump-defies-polls-again-in-2020-my-profession-is-done -
Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
yeah, a small one and one that will likely favor republicans this time around.LebamDawg said:
so kind of a SWAGHouhusky said:
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.LebamDawg said:One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again. -
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.Repubs voted Trump 95% in the primary...one of the highest % for a candidate running for reelection. There are some Repubs that won’t vote for him, but it’s not a significant amount.
They are going to really have to cheat in Philly...the rest of the state is much more favorable to Trump this time around. It is going to be egregious, and they still will likely get away with it.
If Trump wins Wisconsin and Minnesota it won’t matter, but that is asking a lot. -
Trump will win this relatively easy.
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Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
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Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...
The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.EsophagealFeces said:I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that. -
Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...
Lewis county will probably be fine too. The rest of the I-5 corridor could be a shitshow tho.PurpleThrobber said:
The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.EsophagealFeces said:I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that. -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
I hope so - I am 15 miles past Pe Ell in Pacific county. If Lewis falls, the Willapa Valley is close behindEsophagealFeces said:
Lewis county will probably be fine too. The rest of the I-5 corridor could be a shitshow tho.PurpleThrobber said:
The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.EsophagealFeces said:I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that. -
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.I live in Bellevue and Saturday night’s little tantrum was barely felt. The carnage will be concentrated in DT Seattle.
Boats with trump flags out all over Juanita Bay in Saturday around lunch time. -
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.NorthwestFresh said:
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ -
Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.Houhusky said:
Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.NorthwestFresh said:
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.
Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll. -
Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
Any sample size above 30 should be statistically relevant IF it is random enough in its sample selection.NorthwestFresh said:
Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.Houhusky said:
Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.NorthwestFresh said:
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.
Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll. -
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
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Trump in a contested election that the SCOTUS (by SCOTUS I mean Barrett) decides.In a weird way a strong black vote for trump could heal quite a bit nationally. Unless CNN wants to call 30M people uncle toms
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.Played around with an electoral map today. Nothing groundbreaking in my analysis, but I think PA and NC are keys. And if Trump loses one of Michigan and Wisconsin he has to win both PA and NC to win re-election. Just my two cents.
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
