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GrundleStiltzkin
Member Posts: 61,516 
in Tug Tavern
March 26 - https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/
April 20
If I recall correctly, the rationale off lock-down wasn't primarily to prevent infection but to "flatten the curve" and give hospitals time and space to deal with those who've gotten sick.
Time to declare victory and move on?
In Washington, there’s no predicted shortage in overall hospital beds, though some individual facilities — including the UW Medical system — will need extra capacity and have already geared up to provide it. The statewide shortage in ICU beds is forecast to reach almost 100 by April 19, the model’s approximate date for when hospitalizations are expected to peak in Washington.
April 20
If I recall correctly, the rationale off lock-down wasn't primarily to prevent infection but to "flatten the curve" and give hospitals time and space to deal with those who've gotten sick.
Time to declare victory and move on?
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Comments
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You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
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Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
Flatten the curve ended up flattening peoples bank accounts
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I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
What were you seeing in the curve beyond the obvious?DuckHHunterisafag said:
I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
That's what's so amazing in these two graphs is just how obvious they were wrong. We know what their ICU bed shortfall predictions were but we don't know how many ICU beds there are. One has to assume we're nowhere close to their shortfall prediction. I think there's between 10 and 13,000 total hospital beds in the state of Washington and you can see how drastic the case count is falling. The death count is also falling off the cliff and does anyone remember what the "experts" told us in terms of how many deaths we should expect? I'm trying to go back and find the articles which had those predictions. UW's model started getting it close to right toward the end of March but earlier on they were way off.GrundleStiltzkin said:
What were you seeing in the curve beyond the obvious?DuckHHunterisafag said:
I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
Scott Adams making a hard charge to replace Scott Baio as the conservative A-lister for this year's RNC.GrundleStiltzkin said: -
OKA Bob Loblaw. Really good information on this issue can be found at Bob Loblaw's Law Blog.GreenRiverGatorz said:
Scott Adams making a hard charge to replaceGrundleStiltzkin said:Scott Baioas the conservative A-lister for this year's RNC. -
WA death projection was 1400, 81k (huh?) nationally. It’s in the Seattle Tims article above. I’m LIPO on those.DuckHHunterisafag said:
That's what's so amazing in these two graphs is just how obvious they were wrong. We know what their ICU bed shortfall predictions were but we don't know how many ICU beds there are. One has to assume we're nowhere close to their shortfall prediction. I think there's between 10 and 13,000 total hospital beds in the state of Washington and you can see how drastic the case count is falling. The death count is also falling off the cliff and does anyone remember what the "experts" told us in terms of how many deaths we should expect? I'm trying to go back and find the articles which had those predictions. UW's model started getting it close to right toward the end of March but earlier on they were way off.GrundleStiltzkin said:
What were you seeing in the curve beyond the obvious?DuckHHunterisafag said:
I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
The left is still claiming 1million +
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Yes, but that was March 26th when their predictions started falling precipitously. I remember reading ridiculous numbers and as the stats proved they were way off they started to change their models. The point I've been trying to make is that all the draconian restrictions were based on these absurd earlier predictions. I hope the experts here took plenty of screenshots because I can't find them now.GrundleStiltzkin said:
WA death projection was 1400, 81k (huh?) nationally. It’s in the Seattle Tims article above. I’m LIPO on those.DuckHHunterisafag said:
That's what's so amazing in these two graphs is just how obvious they were wrong. We know what their ICU bed shortfall predictions were but we don't know how many ICU beds there are. One has to assume we're nowhere close to their shortfall prediction. I think there's between 10 and 13,000 total hospital beds in the state of Washington and you can see how drastic the case count is falling. The death count is also falling off the cliff and does anyone remember what the "experts" told us in terms of how many deaths we should expect? I'm trying to go back and find the articles which had those predictions. UW's model started getting it close to right toward the end of March but earlier on they were way off.GrundleStiltzkin said:
What were you seeing in the curve beyond the obvious?DuckHHunterisafag said:
I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA. -
Looks like it's 341: ( from the UW Covid Site: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/washington )GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA.
If you look at the data one day, call that "Day A" and then you look at "Day A" say 3-4 days later, the data is different for that day. Add to that the fact that the counties continue to complain when they post their #s that the state data system is having challenges. The #s don't really jive from one chart to another either on the same site. -
I have low expectations for government in this regard, and they’ve probably exceeded those modest expectations considering the circumstances. The problem of course is the fucktarded policies based—allegedly—on shitty data.DoogieMcDoogerson said:
Looks like it's 341: ( from the UW Covid Site: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/washington )GrundleStiltzkin said:
Expound, please.DoogieMcDoogerson said:You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....
And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA.
If you look at the data one day, call that "Day A" and then you look at "Day A" say 3-4 days later, the data is different for that day. Add to that the fact that the counties continue to complain when they post their #s that the state data system is having challenges. The #s don't really jive from one chart to another either on the same site. -
Wow. Looking at those two charts together proves Trumps drugs worked!
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Also, looking at those two charts together on my cell phone is making me go blind....don't twistdoogie said:Wow. Looking at those two charts together proves Trumps drugs worked!
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overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
There’s always another week. Courageous Washingtonians have been giving it up easier than a Lewis County hairdresser.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
people will absolutely get restless if it's extended too long. We're just not at that point yet.
Golf courses, fishing and state parks need to be opened soon. I don't think people are dying to go back to movie theaters, bowling allies, and restaurants (Hi dumbfuck Georgia governor!) but they're definitely gonna get sick of sitting inside. -
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.
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Yet...incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan.DuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.
The point I'll be proving is they can't stop me from bouncing a ball and throwing it in the air at no particular object because it's been removed. I dared my wife and daughter to do the same with their tennis rackets and balls with no net. Fuck these Nazis who think flooding the skate parks with sand is going to stop the kids from skating. They just push it aside. Government should fear the people not the other way around.incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
The WA chapter of ACLU got our back
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I don't know about you but I see a lot of black people selling scalped tickets at events that I go to. I'm betting that enterprising blacks are selling illegal drugs at a much higher level than white people. Just a thought. Once upon a time a heard that some black people were PIMPS. Don't know for sure, but that's what I heard.
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They will.DuckHHunterisafag said:incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.
The point I'll be proving is they can't stop me from bouncing a ball and throwing it in the air at no particular object because it's been removed. I dared my wife and daughter to do the same with their tennis rackets and balls with no net. Fuck these Nazis who think flooding the skate parks with sand is going to stop the kids from skating. They just push it aside. Government should fear the people not the other way around.incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.
Oh yes indeed they will. -
this white man has negotiated with a fewWestlinnDuck said:I don't know about you but I see a lot of black people selling scalped tickets at events that I go to. I'm betting that enterprising blacks are selling illegal drugs at a much higher level than white people. Just a thought. Once upon a time a heard that some black people were PIMPS. Don't know for sure, but that's what I heard.
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nope, they cannot. Have fun!DuckHHunterisafag said:incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.
The point I'll be proving is they can't stop me from bouncing a ball and throwing it in the air at no particular object because it's been removed. I dared my wife and daughter to do the same with their tennis rackets and balls with no net. Fuck these Nazis who think flooding the skate parks with sand is going to stop the kids from skating. They just push it aside. Government should fear the people not the other way around.incremetal_progress said:
you're not proving anything. Nobody is forcing you to stay inside, this isn't fucking Wuhan. Pretty much everyone who's not a lazy fuck is still doing stuff outside. Boring stuff, but stuff nonethelessDuckHHunterisafag said:
Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.incremetal_progress said:overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.
The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that. -
I'm just pissed that the strip clubs in Portland are all still closed.
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This is like the report on KATU last night that said while Oregon has a population of only 18% Latinos, 23% Are Latinos that have been infected.
Of course they ignored that there are another 10% of the population that are undocumented Latinos.
But clearly it’s a racist virus.
