Hell is coming mathematical model
Comments
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I thought we were already in WWIII?RaceBannon said:
And get in WW3MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
Hard to keep trackSFGbob said:
I thought we were already in WWIII?RaceBannon said:
And get in WW3MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
Well on the path towards herd immunity at this rate
I’ll be shocked if the Dem nominee is Biden ... it’s TBD
In some ways we got lucky in Washington that the breakthrough moment was a combo of the nursing home showing how contagious this was combined with companies being well ahead of the curve in shutting things down -
I'm still in the Biden as Convention nominee, Hillary as Veep camp; Joe steps out for 'health reasons' and Hillary ascends to the top spot.Tequilla said:Well on the path towards herd immunity at this rate
I’ll be shocked if the Dem nominee is Biden ... it’s TBD
In some ways we got lucky in Washington that the breakthrough moment was a combo of the nursing home showing how contagious this was combined with companies being well ahead of the curve in shutting things down
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So we got there a day early.
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
The only thing I'll hope for is that all the social distancing and shutdowns of large events have shortened the exponential nature of this thing. Shit's going to get real if this correlation holds. We are already on track to break the 5,000 mark on April first.
[no one has any idea that there are already around 2 million infected people in America today and the American death toll will exceed 15,000 in just 24 days.] -
Brazil has joined Mexico as a control country for doing very little. Mostly provinces with the Federales downplaying it
Its going to be important for any rational review of the extreme measures taken by most everyone else.
Otherwise prep for the 6 month work year -
https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms -
There’s a very real chance that some Southern Californians who had dry coughs, fevers and other symptoms of the coronavirus as far back as December might have already recovered from the disease, according to both Brandon Brown, a public health professor at UC Riverside who specializes in infectious diseases, and Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, an epidemiology professor at UCLA.RaceBannon said:https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms
Wasn't that your bong hit nightly phase?
Lung cookies are a thing.
#edibles -
So I can pretend that I'm a member of Congress or a public employee?RaceBannon said:Brazil has joined Mexico as a control country for doing very little. Mostly provinces with the Federales downplaying it
Its going to be important for any rational review of the extreme measures taken by most everyone else.
Otherwise prep for the 6 month work year -
It’s March 26 and the author looks to have been greatly over optimistic.
