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Time to Man Up - Place your bets on the number
WestlinnDuck
Member Posts: 16,551 
in Tug Tavern
Of course, the counselor, dodo and scotty are excused. 80,000 offed in the 2017-2018 flu season.
I'm going with 20,000 by next October.
CORONAVIRUS IN PERSPECTIVE
Rightly or wrongly, coronavirus has come to dominate the news and has devastated the stock market, at least temporarily. Government at all levels is afraid of being accused of doing too little, and therefore is, if anything, contributing to an atmosphere of panic.
At this point, we don’t know how serious the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. will ultimately be. So far, the latest total I have seen is 38 deaths in the U.S. No doubt that total will increase significantly, but will it rise to the level of the estimated 80,000 flu deaths that the U.S. experienced just two years ago, the winter of 2017-18? I created this chart, which shows coronavirus fatalities to date compared with the 2017-18 total. There is a line there for coronavirus, but you can’t see it yet.
My plan is to continue to update the chart as coronavirus infections continue. I think it will be a valuable tool to put coronavirus in perspective. Perhaps, by this time next year, the coronavirus bar will be several multiples of the 2017-18 bar. Perhaps not.
I'm going with 20,000 by next October.
CORONAVIRUS IN PERSPECTIVE
Rightly or wrongly, coronavirus has come to dominate the news and has devastated the stock market, at least temporarily. Government at all levels is afraid of being accused of doing too little, and therefore is, if anything, contributing to an atmosphere of panic.
At this point, we don’t know how serious the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. will ultimately be. So far, the latest total I have seen is 38 deaths in the U.S. No doubt that total will increase significantly, but will it rise to the level of the estimated 80,000 flu deaths that the U.S. experienced just two years ago, the winter of 2017-18? I created this chart, which shows coronavirus fatalities to date compared with the 2017-18 total. There is a line there for coronavirus, but you can’t see it yet.
My plan is to continue to update the chart as coronavirus infections continue. I think it will be a valuable tool to put coronavirus in perspective. Perhaps, by this time next year, the coronavirus bar will be several multiples of the 2017-18 bar. Perhaps not.
Comments
Experts will estimate 5,000 including @RaceBannon but they can fuck the fuck off. He's been through them all since the plague.
How can we tell what is COVID and what is flu?
They'll be lumped so 40K
Bureaucrats fudge numbers - it's what they do.
I’m outta the prediction bidness myself.
By the end of this year I'd predict 100,000 US deaths.
Keep hope alive
And wait till next winter!!!!
Don’t update. You might get this message:
I’ll say 30, 000.
Flattening the curve has the chance to buy a lot of time to finding good solutions