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If these number hold Trump wins re-election in a cake walk.
Comments
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Run out of children to molest, @GDS Pedophile? Still waiting for those Tulsi words, you lying pedophile piece of shit.GDS said:
You still celebrating that the fake cow litigant repeated the same lie you did?SFGbob said:
You have no fucking business calling anyone else a liar.GDS said:
Categorically false Atl. I only had one handle on educk/shed and have only ever had one here. As usual you are projecting as the title holder of the shed’s most prolific liar.Bendintheriver said:
FFS scotti. There isn't one person who knows how often you lie that would ever take that bet. Between the woodshed and here you have had about 6 different names/handles while stupidly trying to post as if you were someone else. We all know that if you lost you would just come back here with a different name. Like I said, FFS.GDS said:
Wager? I think he will get less than 15%. Loser deletes their account.DJDuck said:
Yes I do Scott. He won the last election with 8%.GDS said:
Do you think Trump will get 15% Deej?DJDuck said:Most pundits and pollsters say that if Trump gets just 15% of the Black vote it will be a landslide.
New polls show black support for Trump surging
https://www.newsday.com/opinion/commentary/black-voters-donald-trump-support-1.39184208
I also think he has a chance to garner a historical Republican share of the Jewish vote.
On the Jewish vote it’s trended GOP in the last couple elections. You might be right on that one.
How does Schiff’s ass taste Scotty?
Let's see those words from Tulsi that prove her "soft spot for Assad." -
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
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Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
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Gee, I wonder what changed between 01, when everyone supported Bush after 9/11, and 04 when we were mired down in fucking Iraq?GDS said:Dubya had approval ratings in the 40's among AA voters in 01-02 but still only received 11% of their votes in '04. Since 84 the avg share of the AA vote for a GOP candidate has been 9% - slightly higher than Trump received in '16.
Gallup has him currently at 10% among AAs which seems a helluva lot closer to reality...
Christ liberals are fucking retarded. Be smarter -
Why some might call that a lie of omission. Scotty is such a hypocritical piece of shit.PostGameOrangeSlices said:
Gee, I wonder what changed between 01, when everyone supported Bush after 9/11, and 04 when we were mired down in fucking Iraq?GDS said:Dubya had approval ratings in the 40's among AA voters in 01-02 but still only received 11% of their votes in '04. Since 84 the avg share of the AA vote for a GOP candidate has been 9% - slightly higher than Trump received in '16.
Gallup has him currently at 10% among AAs which seems a helluva lot closer to reality...
Christ liberals are fucking retarded. Be smarter -
While I couldn't point to one sector atm I see a lot of smaller bubbles in the economy(Coastal real estate inflation and real estate shadow inventory) and a dragging world economy. Demographics are also an issue but the deregulation I noted is helping with participation rates. You can pick on the "due" use of my language but I see a lot of high markets without the corresponding GDP growth numbers which usually means leverage. Plus you have a yield curve inversion which can precede a market correction which can tip an economy into recession as everyone tightens their wallets and deleverages. On top of that you have a trade war with no foreseeable resolution, a strengthening dollar vs. a ton of other currencies liquidity, and likely a large Chinese slowdown(maybe offset by other Asian growth, maybe not).MikeDamone said:
Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
All just my guesses though! Much smarter people than me can't get the market right. Part of why I said it deserves Owen. There's a lot of uncertainty to potentially make investment decisions around. -
So what you're saying is there is no reason for a recession unless governments fuck it up.UW_Doog_Bot said:
While I couldn't point to one sector atm I see a lot of smaller bubbles in the economy(Coastal real estate inflation and real estate shadow inventory) and a dragging world economy. Demographics are also an issue but the deregulation I noted is helping with participation rates. You can pick on the "due" use of my language but I see a lot of high markets without the corresponding GDP growth numbers which usually means leverage. Plus you have a yield curve inversion which can precede a market correction which can tip an economy into recession as everyone tightens their wallets and deleverages. On top of that you have a trade war with no foreseeable resolution, a strengthening dollar vs. a ton of other currencies liquidity, and likely a large Chinese slowdown(maybe offset by other Asian growth, maybe not).MikeDamone said:
Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
All just my guesses though! Much smarter people than me can't get the market right. Part of why I said it deserves Owen. There's a lot of uncertainty to potentially make investment decisions around.
Same as it ever was. -
People who try to predict macroeconomics are always entertaining.
Might as well guess the weather 2 weeks from now -
Some yes and some no. I don't view recessions or slowdowns as bad things inherently. It's part of the natural market cycle and is a good thing to trim a lot of the fat that develops.MikeDamone said:
So what you're saying is there is no reason for a recession unless governments fuck it up.UW_Doog_Bot said:
While I couldn't point to one sector atm I see a lot of smaller bubbles in the economy(Coastal real estate inflation and real estate shadow inventory) and a dragging world economy. Demographics are also an issue but the deregulation I noted is helping with participation rates. You can pick on the "due" use of my language but I see a lot of high markets without the corresponding GDP growth numbers which usually means leverage. Plus you have a yield curve inversion which can precede a market correction which can tip an economy into recession as everyone tightens their wallets and deleverages. On top of that you have a trade war with no foreseeable resolution, a strengthening dollar vs. a ton of other currencies liquidity, and likely a large Chinese slowdown(maybe offset by other Asian growth, maybe not).MikeDamone said:
Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
All just my guesses though! Much smarter people than me can't get the market right. Part of why I said it deserves Owen. There's a lot of uncertainty to potentially make investment decisions around.
Same as it ever was. -
I enjoy economics and I enjoy thinking through macro in a very similar way in which I enjoy football analysis. Both are multi-variable and basically impossible to predict completely accurately. That doesn't mean you can't be 81% correct that Alabama is going to squash southern Mississippi directional U or that you can't make a profit off of essentially not being a retard in the market.PostGameOrangeSlices said:People who try to predict macroeconomics are always entertaining.
Might as well guess the weather 2 weeks from now -
Just dont turn into my dad "a recession is imminent, how can business and the US have all this debt?"
every day of the year he says this shit. Idk dad, idk. -
Extra gay?UW_Doog_Bot said:
I enjoy thinking through macro in a very similar way in which I enjoy football analysis.PostGameOrangeSlices said:People who try to predict macroeconomics are always entertaining.
Might as well guess the weather 2 weeks from now -
I understood almost none of this but still:UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
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The equivalent of my father's football analysis "They lost the game playing prevent defense!". Ask him how he ever took out a mortgage.PostGameOrangeSlices said:Just dont turn into my dad "a recession is imminent, how can business and the US have all this debt?"
every day of the year he says this shit. Idk dad, idk. -
Oh bullshit. You are still on there with a different handle that you tried to pass off as someone other than yourself.GDS said:
You still celebrating that the fake cow litigant repeated the same lie you did?SFGbob said:
You have no fucking business calling anyone else a liar.GDS said:
Categorically false Atl. I only had one handle on educk/shed and have only ever had one here. As usual you are projecting as the title holder of the shed’s most prolific liar.Bendintheriver said:
FFS scotti. There isn't one person who knows how often you lie that would ever take that bet. Between the woodshed and here you have had about 6 different names/handles while stupidly trying to post as if you were someone else. We all know that if you lost you would just come back here with a different name. Like I said, FFS.GDS said:
Wager? I think he will get less than 15%. Loser deletes their account.DJDuck said:
Yes I do Scott. He won the last election with 8%.GDS said:
Do you think Trump will get 15% Deej?DJDuck said:Most pundits and pollsters say that if Trump gets just 15% of the Black vote it will be a landslide.
New polls show black support for Trump surging
https://www.newsday.com/opinion/commentary/black-voters-donald-trump-support-1.39184208
I also think he has a chance to garner a historical Republican share of the Jewish vote.
On the Jewish vote it’s trended GOP in the last couple elections. You might be right on that one.
How does Schiff’s ass taste Scotty? -
To be fair the only thing prevent defense prevents is a winUW_Doog_Bot said:
The equivalent of my father's football analysis "They lost the game playing prevent defense!". Ask him how he ever took out a mortgage.PostGameOrangeSlices said:Just dont turn into my dad "a recession is imminent, how can business and the US have all this debt?"
every day of the year he says this shit. Idk dad, idk. -
The "natural market cycle" is largely created by government monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulations.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Some yes and some no. I don't view recessions or slowdowns as bad things inherently. It's part of the natural market cycle and is a good thing to trim a lot of the fat that develops.MikeDamone said:
So what you're saying is there is no reason for a recession unless governments fuck it up.UW_Doog_Bot said:
While I couldn't point to one sector atm I see a lot of smaller bubbles in the economy(Coastal real estate inflation and real estate shadow inventory) and a dragging world economy. Demographics are also an issue but the deregulation I noted is helping with participation rates. You can pick on the "due" use of my language but I see a lot of high markets without the corresponding GDP growth numbers which usually means leverage. Plus you have a yield curve inversion which can precede a market correction which can tip an economy into recession as everyone tightens their wallets and deleverages. On top of that you have a trade war with no foreseeable resolution, a strengthening dollar vs. a ton of other currencies liquidity, and likely a large Chinese slowdown(maybe offset by other Asian growth, maybe not).MikeDamone said:
Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
All just my guesses though! Much smarter people than me can't get the market right. Part of why I said it deserves Owen. There's a lot of uncertainty to potentially make investment decisions around.
Same as it ever was.
See 2008 for reference. -
Debatable but either way, that's the world we live in so downturns and slowdowns are a reality.MikeDamone said:
The "natural market cycle" is largely created by government monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulations.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Some yes and some no. I don't view recessions or slowdowns as bad things inherently. It's part of the natural market cycle and is a good thing to trim a lot of the fat that develops.MikeDamone said:
So what you're saying is there is no reason for a recession unless governments fuck it up.UW_Doog_Bot said:
While I couldn't point to one sector atm I see a lot of smaller bubbles in the economy(Coastal real estate inflation and real estate shadow inventory) and a dragging world economy. Demographics are also an issue but the deregulation I noted is helping with participation rates. You can pick on the "due" use of my language but I see a lot of high markets without the corresponding GDP growth numbers which usually means leverage. Plus you have a yield curve inversion which can precede a market correction which can tip an economy into recession as everyone tightens their wallets and deleverages. On top of that you have a trade war with no foreseeable resolution, a strengthening dollar vs. a ton of other currencies liquidity, and likely a large Chinese slowdown(maybe offset by other Asian growth, maybe not).MikeDamone said:
Why are we "due"?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
All just my guesses though! Much smarter people than me can't get the market right. Part of why I said it deserves Owen. There's a lot of uncertainty to potentially make investment decisions around.
Same as it ever was.
See 2008 for reference. -
You've got the government rez check and your monthly casino chip allowance so your good to go.Swaye said:
I understood almost none of this but still:UW_Doog_Bot said:
Deserves owen. I think a strong dollar against a ton of world uncertainty is going to slow the GDP numbers way down. I think the market is inflated and will continue to be by the divergence in interest rates(everyone in the world trying to buy American assets atm). Dems win 2020 and yeah, the market will crash, but I also think we are due for a slowdown or recession within the next 18-24 months even if Donny wins(they'll be a post election jump though). Only reason it hasn't happened already is because of tax cuts and deregulation imo.DuckHHunterisafag said:
401K up 26% yoy. Now if i can just call the next recession, I'm set;-) Although i think Trump wins reelection, 50% of the population is fucked up and prone to stupidity. If a RAT wins, the market crashes big time. Sure, it will eventually recover but it could take years to reach break even. The market may hedge this potential somewhere between March and September and see a 10-20% downward slide. If Trump wins, it recovers quickly and continues the bull run. Dump it all into bond funds until after the 2020 election?RaceBannon said:But those tweets
