Looking Moist

For Sat...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
306 PM PDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will move through Western Washington
into this evening, brining more widespread rain and breezy to
locally windy conditions to the area. A wet and unsettled pattern
will continue throughout the remainder of the week and into next
week as a series of systems progresses through the region.

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.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Current observations showing
winds starting to pick up within the area of the current Wind
Advisory...most notably with Bellingham reporting a wind gust of 40
mph...which falls right on the lower threshold of the advisory.
Current radar shows much of the CWA in-between rain bands...with the
one associated with the front from last night and this morning east
of the Cascade crest while the one associated with the incoming
front currently in position along the coast and over the northwest
portion of the Olympic Peninsula. In the immediate near term...all
this spells out that winds along the east side of the Sound will see
wind speeds increase but timing still looks good for winds to begin
to diminish after 5 or 6 PM PDT. Speeds still generally breezy to
locally windy for most locations...including the Seattle Metro
area...while the north interior looks good regarding its Wind
Advisory and with the timing looking consistent...do not foresee a
need for that to be extended at this time.

While the change in the leaves is certainly an indicator of
fall...so too is the seemingly endless march of weather systems over
the Pac NW...and current models remain in sync that W WA will have
that in spades as additional systems will push through the region
Thursday and again Friday, bringing additional rounds of breezy
conditions and widespread rain. Increasing swell along the coastal
areas of Washington during the day Thursday with 18 to 20 foot swell
expected, will result hazardous surf conditions along the coastal
beaches of Washington through at least Thursday evening. Temps will
cool a few degrees each day, with highs reaching mostly into the mid
50s by Friday. Ample cloud cover will keep the overnight lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Snow levels will stay above the passes on
Thursday, but could fall to near Stevens Pass levels by Friday. It
is worth mentioning that snowfall amounts over portions of the North
Cascades in Whatcom and Skagit counties might see snow amounts that
would meet Snow Advisory criteria Friday as the forecast stands now.
Would like to see if this solution proves consistent...so opting to
not go with any headlines now. Should this amounts remain relatively
unaltered in future model runs...may need to consider headlines for
afternoon forecast package tomorrow. SMR

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Upper level low pressure
over the Gulf of Alaska and along the Canadian coast will cycle a
series of upper level troughs over W WA in the extended...keeping
wet weather in the forecast. The GFS persists in advertising a brief
break Saturday night into Sunday and it even seems like the ECMWF is
begrudgingly giving in. Neither model affords this break much in the
way of time as by late Sunday morning...the rain is back again with
yet another upper level trough passing through the area and another
system for Monday. Models diverge come Tuesday though...similar to
when the GFS initially suggested the aforementioned break for
Saturday night. Current GFS solution is showing a brief break in the
action by late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon while the
ECMWF keeps conditions wet. Given how the ECMWF has come around to
the GFS solution regarding the Sunday night break...opted to lean
into the drier GFS solution here as well...even though well aware
this is all subject to change given that it occurs near the end of
the forecast period. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
50s, while overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s
throughout the extended. SMR