The Inverted Yield Curve
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Comments
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Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.
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Also, when economic conditions lag what is the first thing the fed does as a preventative step to try and either prevent or mitigate a recession? They cut rates.
This creates a pretty high correlation while not necessarily meaning the two are causal or perfectly related.
Lurking variables.
Even @CirrhosisDawg hasn't shorted ALL of his investments I would guess. -
I know. But when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, it's a signal of the market's flight to safety. Either they're right, or their actions might make the prophecy self-fulfilling, or bofe!UW_Doog_Bot said:Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.
Sure, the fed cutting rates should help. But is there a more fundamental problem? I don't know. This trade war bidness we have discussed might exact more pain from us in the short to medium-term than we thought. Other issues at play?
The rate cut should help the yield stocks, something near and dear to my heart. -
Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
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I remember when the market was a rigged game for the 1%
Occupy -
UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.
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Real estate
Shortage of stock and over supply of renters
Put your cash in rentals
Profit -
Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?oregonblitzkrieg said:Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
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Gold. Buy Buy buy.
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Dollar Cost Average on quality stock. Buy the f'ing Dips. The big daily or weekly chart dips. Scale in and short volatility when VIX > 20creepycoug said:
Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?oregonblitzkrieg said:Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
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Sure. Trump is losing bigly.CirrhosisDawg said:UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.
I'm sure you have inside contacts in China that are telling you of the economic chaos going on.
Did your sources also conjure up the $60B that the US has collected in tarrifs?
Did they also tell you about the grain purchases China made after pledging they would buy no more US grain? Yep, it was Trump that caved.
Did your sources tell you about the 560 Chinese companies that have folded in the past 60 days because their custsomers found suppliers in other countries?
Did your sources also fill you in on the economic slow downs that have happened in numerous countries? Of course, this will never have an impact on the US economy.
Your all knowing brain surely must have told you that 8 of 10 commodity producers support Trump in this battle with China. They are very happy that the US finally has a president with enough balls to fix the problem. They are feeling the brunt of this trade war and fully support it.
Snowflakes like you prefer to cower in the corner, deathly afraid of an economy that is a fraction of the US GDP. Fags like you seem to think that Xi can scratch his ass and blow away the US.
Yep, tilting at windmills while you fuck fat chicks. They all need love! -
All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.creepycoug said:Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money? -
You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.HoustonHusky said:
All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.creepycoug said:Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?
JFC -
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Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".CirrhosisDawg said:Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.
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I would hate to be exposed. I’m calling you out. You just regurgitated 300 words of meaningless gibberish that confirms for me that you are a fucking idiot. Go for it you moron.Blu82 said:
Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".CirrhosisDawg said:Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol. -
Gold. Buy buy buyHoustonHusky said:
All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.creepycoug said:Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?
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What the fuck are you rambling about? I’m talking about businesses being able to pretty much borrow however much they want at crazy low rates. Cutting interest rates doesn’t spur them to borrow more because we are already at insanely low rates.CirrhosisDawg said:
You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.HoustonHusky said:
All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.creepycoug said:Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?
JFC
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True.HoustonHusky said:
What the fuck are you rambling about? I’m talking about businesses being able to pretty much borrow however much they want at crazy low rates. Cutting interest rates doesn’t spur them to borrow more because we are already at insanely low rates.CirrhosisDawg said:
You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.HoustonHusky said:
All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.creepycoug said:Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?
JFC
Funds will flow to the US for better yields and relative safety, low political risk.
Domestic borrowing isn’t going to change much.
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CD proudly waving the white flag because he can't refute anything I said.CirrhosisDawg said:
I would hate to be exposed. I’m calling you out. You just regurgitated 300 words of meaningless gibberish that confirms for me that you are a fucking idiot. Go for it you moron.Blu82 said:
Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".CirrhosisDawg said:Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol. -
Wait a minute OBK. Is "scale in" code for "reasonable amounts"?oregonblitzkrieg said:
Dollar Cost Average on quality stock. Buy the f'ing Dips. The big daily or weekly chart dips. Scale in and short volatility when VIX > 20creepycoug said:
Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?oregonblitzkrieg said:Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
You tricked me. -
There is more to it than that, but generally speaking this is a safe place to move during a recession. Still have to do your homework on where you're investing, though. Cap rates, etc.RaceBannon said:Real estate
Shortage of stock and over supply of renters
Put your cash in rentals
Profit -
1. Start pimping
2. ....
3. Profit -
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Classics Board, now.Blu82 said:
Sure. Trump is losing bigly.CirrhosisDawg said:UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.
I'm sure you have inside contacts in China that are telling you of the economic chaos going on.
Did your sources also conjure up the $60B that the US has collected in tarrifs?
Did they also tell you about the grain purchases China made after pledging they would buy no more US grain? Yep, it was Trump that caved.
Did your sources tell you about the 560 Chinese companies that have folded in the past 60 days because their custsomers found suppliers in other countries?
Did your sources also fill you in on the economic slow downs that have happened in numerous countries? Of course, this will never have an impact on the US economy.
Your all knowing brain surely must have told you that 8 of 10 commodity producers support Trump in this battle with China. They are very happy that the US finally has a president with enough balls to fix the problem. They are feeling the brunt of this trade war and fully support it.
Snowflakes like you prefer to cower in the corner, deathly afraid of an economy that is a fraction of the US GDP. Fags like you seem to think that Xi can scratch his ass and blow away the US.
Yep, tilting at windmills while you fuck fat chicks. They all need love! -
CD isn't wrong that the trade war is hurting business all over. I'm just of the opinion that the US is better equipped to withstand the negative effects than China is. This is 100% a game of chicken but I think it's necessary to deal with the CCP.
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CirrhosisDawg said:
I would hate to be exposed. I’m calling you out. You just regurgitated 300 words of meaningless gibberish that confirms for me that you are a fucking idiot. Go for it you moron.Blu82 said:
Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".CirrhosisDawg said:Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.
Meaningless Gibberish Superiority Guy -
So much truth. Slumlord for lyyyfe.RaceBannon said:Real estate
Shortage of stock and over supply of renters
Put your cash in rentals
Profit
