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The Inverted Yield Curve
creepycoug
Member Posts: 24,282
in Tug Tavern
Discuss?
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.
Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.
Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.
Comments
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Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.
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Also, when economic conditions lag what is the first thing the fed does as a preventative step to try and either prevent or mitigate a recession? They cut rates.
This creates a pretty high correlation while not necessarily meaning the two are causal or perfectly related.
Lurking variables.
Even @CirrhosisDawg hasn't shorted ALL of his investments I would guess. -
I know. But when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, it's a signal of the market's flight to safety. Either they're right, or their actions might make the prophecy self-fulfilling, or bofe!UW_Doog_Bot said:Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.
Sure, the fed cutting rates should help. But is there a more fundamental problem? I don't know. This trade war bidness we have discussed might exact more pain from us in the short to medium-term than we thought. Other issues at play?
The rate cut should help the yield stocks, something near and dear to my heart. -
Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
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I remember when the market was a rigged game for the 1%
Occupy -
UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.
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Real estate
Shortage of stock and over supply of renters
Put your cash in rentals
Profit -
Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?oregonblitzkrieg said:Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
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Gold. Buy Buy buy.
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Dollar Cost Average on quality stock. Buy the f'ing Dips. The big daily or weekly chart dips. Scale in and short volatility when VIX > 20creepycoug said:
Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?oregonblitzkrieg said:Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.
