For the Finance Bros
Comments
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I'm mostly retired. But a former client is making a run at me with a billing rate I've not had in my life. 3 year commitment.
I'm have the rest of the month to mull it over -
Who needs property when you can blow it all on Rolexes?
#TeamFastStrategy
#creepycougofTheWest
#PuertoRico>Cuba
#Wepa -
Take it and donate to the nearest blm chapter as reparations. It's the only way to assuage your guiltMikeDamone said:I'm mostly retired. But a former client is making a run at me with a billing rate I've not had in my life. 3 year commitment.
I'm have the rest of the month to mull it over -
It will start to look a lot like Stagflation come mid 2023. And nothing other than moar GDP will stop that train. And that’s gonna be HARD. As we can’t rely on cash out refinance guysm anymore.creepycoug said:Addendum: this is all predicated on the assumption that the rate hikes actually help manage the inflation problem. If we have rate hikes and no downward pressure on inflation, then I'm not doing anything.
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Buy low, sell high.
That’s all I can provide without sending an invoice. -
More to write but I'm on mobile. Tldr
If you can lock in 5% while inflation is 9% you do it and you do it now. Doubly so on a hard asset that will track inflation. Neither rates or inflation will be going down anytime soon.
Then again if your building it to retire in its all paper money beyond the taxes. New construction is also a premium that will depreciate some but oh well.
I'm at <50% equity @2.5% .25m from the beach so fuck whatever happens in housing. If anything I'd take a downturn just to be able to pick up some more properties out of California for the eventual Venezuela like exodus. -
What region is your lake house going to be on? I would love to have a mountain/lake home someday. I just need to find an area with great weather that is still a hidden gem.creepycoug said:
In a weird way, I'm thinking this will work to my advantage given my retirement timeline.
Building a vacation house. Own the lot on the lake free and clear. The house we designed (always easier to draw up a house than build one) was going to be between 900 and 1m to build, and a lot of that was lumber and the fact that contractors have been in the catbird seat. "You'll pay it and you'll be happy to wait 18 months for me to start."
Rate hikes have already cooled off housing, and another 100 bps won't help. Eventually, this should catch up to the market. Lumber is already heading back down, and eventually contractors will be hungry again. I've dealt with them when they are, and the conversations are very fucking different. "I can get us a dirt guy who will do that in a couple of days. He owes me a few favors and we can get it for $X." vs. "We need a good dirt guy for that and they're not cheap. At least $X and up from there."
I figure I can finance part of that, albeit at higher rates, and then when rates come back down, and they will at some point, I can re-fi. But I can't re-fi an overpayment on the house. It's a toggle, but I'd rather take the higher financing cost than pay more on the underlying purchase price. The former can be fixed later when rates change; the latter is permanent ink.
Happy to have anyone tell me that's a stupid way to think about it and why.
As to my portfolio, I'll still pour cash into equities aggressively, and an extended dampening of the market will give me better buying.
This all assumes my income is safe. I'm superstitious so I'll pass on making bold prognostications about that. When things get shitty enough, nobody is safe. But I'll say this much ... the nature of my role is such that you don't start with me when cutting time comes, and you'd typically go through several rounds before you got to me. That would hold true at pretty much any organization. But, again, in the end, we are all eligible for the chopping block. -
Lake Chelan - north central washington is, to me, the real God's country. There is no place I like better, not even the Keys.RoadTrip said:
What region is your lake house going to be on? I would love to have a mountain/lake home someday. I just need to find an area with great weather that is still a hidden gem.creepycoug said:
In a weird way, I'm thinking this will work to my advantage given my retirement timeline.
Building a vacation house. Own the lot on the lake free and clear. The house we designed (always easier to draw up a house than build one) was going to be between 900 and 1m to build, and a lot of that was lumber and the fact that contractors have been in the catbird seat. "You'll pay it and you'll be happy to wait 18 months for me to start."
Rate hikes have already cooled off housing, and another 100 bps won't help. Eventually, this should catch up to the market. Lumber is already heading back down, and eventually contractors will be hungry again. I've dealt with them when they are, and the conversations are very fucking different. "I can get us a dirt guy who will do that in a couple of days. He owes me a few favors and we can get it for $X." vs. "We need a good dirt guy for that and they're not cheap. At least $X and up from there."
I figure I can finance part of that, albeit at higher rates, and then when rates come back down, and they will at some point, I can re-fi. But I can't re-fi an overpayment on the house. It's a toggle, but I'd rather take the higher financing cost than pay more on the underlying purchase price. The former can be fixed later when rates change; the latter is permanent ink.
Happy to have anyone tell me that's a stupid way to think about it and why.
As to my portfolio, I'll still pour cash into equities aggressively, and an extended dampening of the market will give me better buying.
This all assumes my income is safe. I'm superstitious so I'll pass on making bold prognostications about that. When things get shitty enough, nobody is safe. But I'll say this much ... the nature of my role is such that you don't start with me when cutting time comes, and you'd typically go through several rounds before you got to me. That would hold true at pretty much any organization. But, again, in the end, we are all eligible for the chopping block.
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I was wrongfully arrested there once and charged with MIP. I requested a court hearing and pleaded not guilty and won my case. It is gorgeous there but have to imagine it's very expensive now.creepycoug said:
Lake Chelan - north central washington is, to me, the real God's country. There is no place I like better, not even the Keys.RoadTrip said:
What region is your lake house going to be on? I would love to have a mountain/lake home someday. I just need to find an area with great weather that is still a hidden gem.creepycoug said:
In a weird way, I'm thinking this will work to my advantage given my retirement timeline.
Building a vacation house. Own the lot on the lake free and clear. The house we designed (always easier to draw up a house than build one) was going to be between 900 and 1m to build, and a lot of that was lumber and the fact that contractors have been in the catbird seat. "You'll pay it and you'll be happy to wait 18 months for me to start."
Rate hikes have already cooled off housing, and another 100 bps won't help. Eventually, this should catch up to the market. Lumber is already heading back down, and eventually contractors will be hungry again. I've dealt with them when they are, and the conversations are very fucking different. "I can get us a dirt guy who will do that in a couple of days. He owes me a few favors and we can get it for $X." vs. "We need a good dirt guy for that and they're not cheap. At least $X and up from there."
I figure I can finance part of that, albeit at higher rates, and then when rates come back down, and they will at some point, I can re-fi. But I can't re-fi an overpayment on the house. It's a toggle, but I'd rather take the higher financing cost than pay more on the underlying purchase price. The former can be fixed later when rates change; the latter is permanent ink.
Happy to have anyone tell me that's a stupid way to think about it and why.
As to my portfolio, I'll still pour cash into equities aggressively, and an extended dampening of the market will give me better buying.
This all assumes my income is safe. I'm superstitious so I'll pass on making bold prognostications about that. When things get shitty enough, nobody is safe. But I'll say this much ... the nature of my role is such that you don't start with me when cutting time comes, and you'd typically go through several rounds before you got to me. That would hold true at pretty much any organization. But, again, in the end, we are all eligible for the chopping block. -
Very. I got in on the dirt part years ago. I was actually in the red on the purchase for years, but fortunately I paid cash and didn't feel the pressure to sell during the recession.RoadTrip said:
I was wrongfully arrested there once and charged with MIP. I requested a court hearing and pleaded not guilty and won my case. It is gorgeous there but have to imagine it's very expensive now.creepycoug said:
Lake Chelan - north central washington is, to me, the real God's country. There is no place I like better, not even the Keys.RoadTrip said:
What region is your lake house going to be on? I would love to have a mountain/lake home someday. I just need to find an area with great weather that is still a hidden gem.creepycoug said:
In a weird way, I'm thinking this will work to my advantage given my retirement timeline.
Building a vacation house. Own the lot on the lake free and clear. The house we designed (always easier to draw up a house than build one) was going to be between 900 and 1m to build, and a lot of that was lumber and the fact that contractors have been in the catbird seat. "You'll pay it and you'll be happy to wait 18 months for me to start."
Rate hikes have already cooled off housing, and another 100 bps won't help. Eventually, this should catch up to the market. Lumber is already heading back down, and eventually contractors will be hungry again. I've dealt with them when they are, and the conversations are very fucking different. "I can get us a dirt guy who will do that in a couple of days. He owes me a few favors and we can get it for $X." vs. "We need a good dirt guy for that and they're not cheap. At least $X and up from there."
I figure I can finance part of that, albeit at higher rates, and then when rates come back down, and they will at some point, I can re-fi. But I can't re-fi an overpayment on the house. It's a toggle, but I'd rather take the higher financing cost than pay more on the underlying purchase price. The former can be fixed later when rates change; the latter is permanent ink.
Happy to have anyone tell me that's a stupid way to think about it and why.
As to my portfolio, I'll still pour cash into equities aggressively, and an extended dampening of the market will give me better buying.
This all assumes my income is safe. I'm superstitious so I'll pass on making bold prognostications about that. When things get shitty enough, nobody is safe. But I'll say this much ... the nature of my role is such that you don't start with me when cutting time comes, and you'd typically go through several rounds before you got to me. That would hold true at pretty much any organization. But, again, in the end, we are all eligible for the chopping block.
Chelan used to be party central when I was a kid. It's not that way anymore.
