In a weird way, I'm thinking this will work to my advantage given my retirement timeline.
Building a vacation house. Own the lot on the lake free and clear. The house we designed (always easier to draw up a house than build one) was going to be between 900 and 1m to build, and a lot of that was lumber and the fact that contractors have been in the catbird seat. "You'll pay it and you'll be happy to wait 18 months for me to start."
Rate hikes have already cooled off housing, and another 100 bps won't help. Eventually, this should catch up to the market. Lumber is already heading back down, and eventually contractors will be hungry again. I've dealt with them when they are, and the conversations are very fucking different. "I can get us a dirt guy who will do that in a couple of days. He owes me a few favors and we can get it for $X." vs. "We need a good dirt guy for that and they're not cheap. At least $X and up from there."
I figure I can finance part of that, albeit at higher rates, and then when rates come back down, and they will at some point, I can re-fi. But I can't re-fi an overpayment on the house. It's a toggle, but I'd rather take the higher financing cost than pay more on the underlying purchase price. The former can be fixed later when rates change; the latter is permanent ink.
Happy to have anyone tell me that's a stupid way to think about it and why.
As to my portfolio, I'll still pour cash into equities aggressively, and an extended dampening of the market will give me better buying.
This all assumes my income is safe. I'm superstitious so I'll pass on making bold prognostications about that. When things get shitty enough, nobody is safe. But I'll say this much ... the nature of my role is such that you don't start with me when cutting time comes, and you'd typically go through several rounds before you got to me. That would hold true at pretty much any organization. But, again, in the end, we are all eligible for the chopping block.
What region is your lake house going to be on? I would love to have a mountain/lake home someday. I just need to find an area with great weather that is still a hidden gem.
Lake Chelan - north central washington is, to me, the real God's country. There is no place I like better, not even the Keys.
All that said, what you going to do about climate change? It's real you know. When we revert back to an ice age (most likely scenario) and you are under 2mi thick ice sheet? Betcha didn't think of that.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Worm has turned.
One thing I’ll never have again: A mortgage.
Meh, leverage can be a good thing when used responsibly.
Or when the government destroys the currency by lowering rates and printing money.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Worm has turned.
One thing I’ll never have again: A mortgage.
Meh, leverage can be a good thing when used responsibly.
Or when the government destroys the currency by lowering rates and printing money.
Your last sentence is fucktarded.
There is a time and place for mortgages. I am not in that time or place.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Worm has turned.
One thing I’ll never have again: A mortgage.
Meh, leverage can be a good thing when used responsibly.
Or when the government destroys the currency by lowering rates and printing money.
Your last sentence is fucktarded.
There is a time and place for mortgages. I am not in that time or place.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
Guy down the street is selling his house and building a new one. I'm too conservative. We'd have sold first and lived in an apt. until the build was complete. He has to be shitting himself because it's been on market for weeks and hasn't moved after one price drop. 5 months ago that house is gone in a bidding war same day it's listed, three days max.
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Worm has turned.
Or when the government destroys the currency by lowering rates and printing money.
There is a time and place for mortgages. I am not in that time or place.
Artificially low interest rates combined with ridiculous spending caused inflation yes?
Being able to leverage and buy a hard asset at rates that are lower than inflation is a good thing.
If your argument is to never use leverage *shrug.