Combat inflation by putting savings in some watches?

BleachedAnusDawg

Is this a real option, or am I thinking about this the wrong way? Seems like having cash in a savings account is FS in this economy. I don't have Patek money, but could do a Rolex or two without big complaints from the wife, I think. I'm thinking small-time like Explorer or two-tone DJ's, not Daytona dollars. @Swaye @Doogles @PurpleBaze

PurpleBaze

The watch world is definitely out of control. Prices have been rising quite rapidly. I've bought my watches for personal enjoyment and am planning on buying a Rolex GMT Master II in a year or two. That will probably cap off my watch collection. I'll say this: so glad I bought my Rolexes and AP when I did. I couldn't bring myself to buy those same watches in today's market.

Anyway, I'm sure Yoda Swaye will chime in with some superb insight. Doogles will have a lot more hot takes on the watch market as well.

BleachedAnusDawg

PurpleBaze said:

The watch world is definitely out of control. Prices have been rising quite rapidly. I've bought my watches for personal enjoyment and am planning on buying a Rolex GMT Master II in a year or two. That will probably cap off my watch collection. I'll say this: so glad I bought my Rolexes and AP when I did. I couldn't bring myself to buy those same watches in today's market.

Anyway, I'm sure Yoda Swaye will chime in with some superb insight. Doogles will have a lot more hot takes on the watch market as well.

I watch random YouTube videos about watches and the market for them and the premium stuff just seems completely out of touch with reality at this point. I'm thinking the Rolex demand will always be there, but once interest rates go up, etc there will be a reality check and more folks look at the Submariners, Explorers, etc as how they can enter the market versus the insane AP and precious metal Rolexes, etc. There are only so many people who can afford $50k and up watches.

Swaye

The issue is access. These watches are very hard to get (impossible without a huge spend relationship). Buying them on the secondary market for 3X retail, then hoping they go up even more is a dangerous game. They could keep going up to 4-6X retail, but at some point they stop increasing and someone is left holding the bag having paid 50K for a 15K watch, or whatever. I am still a buyer if I can use long held relationships to get a Patek/AP/Rolex/FP Journe at retail or close, but for myself, having made a staggering amount of money the last few years, I personally have pulled out of the secondary market pretty much completely. I believe these watches are tulips right now, or very very close.

edit: Now, if you want to "start" playing the game and try to get a couple Rolex at retail, then talk to @Doogles . My relationships go back many years so I think it is very hard sledding to come to the game now and make a dent, and if you are going to, a couple watches wont get it done. Id' say you need to be willing to spend 100K minimum to get on a radar to get any watch that is one of the really highly valued 2-3X retail pieces (Pepsi, Batman, Starbucks, etc). 100K is probably conservative. actually. To get a DJ and an Explorer II. Probably have to buy something else first then that is reasonable.

PurpleBaze

BleachedAnusDawg said:

PurpleBaze said:

The watch world is definitely out of control. Prices have been rising quite rapidly. I've bought my watches for personal enjoyment and am planning on buying a Rolex GMT Master II in a year or two. That will probably cap off my watch collection. I'll say this: so glad I bought my Rolexes and AP when I did. I couldn't bring myself to buy those same watches in today's market.

Anyway, I'm sure Yoda Swaye will chime in with some superb insight. Doogles will have a lot more hot takes on the watch market as well.

I watch random YouTube videos about watches and the market for them and the premium stuff just seems completely out of touch with reality at this point. I'm thinking the Rolex demand will always be there, but once interest rates go up, etc there will be a reality check and more folks look at the Submariners, Explorers, etc as how they can enter the market versus the insane AP and precious metal Rolexes, etc. There are only so many people who can afford $50k and up watches.

You are correct. Rolexes are always in demand and still attainable, relatively speaking. Also, they'll more than retain their value.

BleachedAnusDawg

Swaye said:

The issue is access. These watches are very hard to get (impossible without a huge spend relationship). Buying them on the secondary market for 3X retail, then hoping they go up even more is a dangerous game. They could keep going up to 4-6X retail, but at some point they stop increasing and someone is left holding the bag having paid 50K for a 15K watch, or whatever. I am still a buyer if I can use long held relationships to get a Patek/AP/Rolex/FP Journe at retail or close, but for myself, having made a staggering amount of money the last few years, I personally have pulled out of the secondary market pretty much completely. I believe these watches are tulips right now, or very very close.

edit: Now, if you want to "start" playing the game and try to get a couple Rolex at retail, then talk to @Doogles . My relationships go back many years so I think it is very hard sledding to come to the game now and make a dent, and if you are going to, a couple watches wont get it done. Id' say you need to be willing to spend 100K minimum to get on a radar to get any watch that is one of the really highly valued 2-3X retail pieces (Pepsi, Batman, Starbucks, etc). 100K is probably conservative. actually. To get a DJ and an Explorer II. Probably have to buy something else first then that is reasonable.

Yeah, was thinking the latter and trying to start building something with an AD. Obviously you have to spend more than $4k on a Tudor, but I at least have that as a starting point to work from.

Doogles

BleachedAnusDawg said:

Swaye said:

The issue is access. These watches are very hard to get (impossible without a huge spend relationship). Buying them on the secondary market for 3X retail, then hoping they go up even more is a dangerous game. They could keep going up to 4-6X retail, but at some point they stop increasing and someone is left holding the bag having paid 50K for a 15K watch, or whatever. I am still a buyer if I can use long held relationships to get a Patek/AP/Rolex/FP Journe at retail or close, but for myself, having made a staggering amount of money the last few years, I personally have pulled out of the secondary market pretty much completely. I believe these watches are tulips right now, or very very close.

edit: Now, if you want to "start" playing the game and try to get a couple Rolex at retail, then talk to @Doogles . My relationships go back many years so I think it is very hard sledding to come to the game now and make a dent, and if you are going to, a couple watches wont get it done. Id' say you need to be willing to spend 100K minimum to get on a radar to get any watch that is one of the really highly valued 2-3X retail pieces (Pepsi, Batman, Starbucks, etc). 100K is probably conservative. actually. To get a DJ and an Explorer II. Probably have to buy something else first then that is reasonable.

Yeah, was thinking the latter and trying to start building something with an AD. Obviously you have to spend more than $4k on a Tudor, but I at least have that as a starting point to work from.

I have some very strong opinions on how the last couple of months went down … some of it I’m not 100% sure I want to completely elaborate on I need to think about if I want to publicly put out some of the info I’ve heard the last few months and connecting the dots on what I think happened. I'll keep you posted.

Swaye

BleachedAnusDawg said:

Swaye said:

The issue is access. These watches are very hard to get (impossible without a huge spend relationship). Buying them on the secondary market for 3X retail, then hoping they go up even more is a dangerous game. They could keep going up to 4-6X retail, but at some point they stop increasing and someone is left holding the bag having paid 50K for a 15K watch, or whatever. I am still a buyer if I can use long held relationships to get a Patek/AP/Rolex/FP Journe at retail or close, but for myself, having made a staggering amount of money the last few years, I personally have pulled out of the secondary market pretty much completely. I believe these watches are tulips right now, or very very close.

edit: Now, if you want to "start" playing the game and try to get a couple Rolex at retail, then talk to @Doogles . My relationships go back many years so I think it is very hard sledding to come to the game now and make a dent, and if you are going to, a couple watches wont get it done. Id' say you need to be willing to spend 100K minimum to get on a radar to get any watch that is one of the really highly valued 2-3X retail pieces (Pepsi, Batman, Starbucks, etc). 100K is probably conservative. actually. To get a DJ and an Explorer II. Probably have to buy something else first then that is reasonable.

Yeah, was thinking the latter and trying to start building something with an AD. Obviously you have to spend more than $4k on a Tudor, but I at least have that as a starting point to work from.

Yeah if you want to start small, then it is doable. Tudor to Datejust to AirKing is totally reasonable and at the end of that three watch journey you'd be even or maybe up a little bit, and in position to get a piece with even more upside like an Explorer. Of course pulling those three watches mentioned above out of a dealer will take a good bit of schmoozing on your part, and a year minimum I'd guess (in most markets).

The BEST way to do this is walk in and big dick them, politely. "I am wanting to start a journey and I want multiple watches including full PM" will get you attention. Took me 250K and 3 years to get a white dial Daytona. Now I picked up all the other "in demand" watches along the way, and made a ton of cash, but this watch game is a "it takes money to make money" thing for sure right now. Swing the dick!