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BTC looks like shit

sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
Degenerates still not letting go of leverage. I expect to see 35k BTC soon
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    DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,948
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    I'll keep tossing in a little $$ each week and keep buying the dip
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    LongDukDongLongDukDong Member Posts: 1,209
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    I don’t think it goes to 35k. We’ve seen the bottom but it will remain at 41-43 for a while due to the leveraged degens. Need three weeks of despair to force out the degens before it goes back up to ATH.
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    DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,948
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    LongDukDong said:

    I don’t think it goes to 35k. We’ve seen the bottom but it will remain at 41-43 for a while due to the leveraged degens. Need three weeks of despair to force out the degens before it goes back up to ATH.

    Can either of you explain what you mean by leveraged degenerates?
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,278
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    edited January 2022
    DerekJohnson said:

    LongDukDong said:

    I don’t think it goes to 35k. We’ve seen the bottom but it will remain at 41-43 for a while due to the leveraged degens. Need three weeks of despair to force out the degens before it goes back up to ATH.

    Can either of you explain what you mean by leveraged degenerates?
    Retail and brokerages buying Bitcoin with money they don’t have. Typically, these situations are prime for whales to sell a chunk of their investments to trigger a massive drop, only for them to re-enter at much lower prices. People are less likely to hold a heavily leveraged asset.
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    DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,948
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    edited January 2022
    greenblood said:

    DerekJohnson said:

    LongDukDong said:

    I don’t think it goes to 35k. We’ve seen the bottom but it will remain at 41-43 for a while due to the leveraged degens. Need three weeks of despair to force out the degens before it goes back up to ATH.

    Can either of you explain what you mean by leveraged degenerates?
    Retail and brokerages buying Bitcoin with money they don’t have.
    Oh, I see. I understand that but didn't draw a correlation. I was talking to a friend of mine earlier this week and told her to get her money off the exchanges ASAP, because she had 100% of her BTC on there. She said why, and I told her that who is to say that the exchanges actually possess the BTC that they claimed to have sold to her. And also, if the shit hits the fan the government could confiscate her BTC and she would have zero say over the matter.

    But I guess I didn't consider how the exchanges doing that could drive down the price.
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    HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 4,520
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    Same thing is going on with equities (lines of credit against portfolios / carry trades).

    Big difference is that digital currencies have never gone through a real recession.
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    louism2washlouism2wash Member Posts: 333
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    @sonics1993 where are you getting this info about leverage? It's obviously happening but I don't know of any data showing how much leverage is in the BTC space.
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    HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 4,520
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    This isn't for BTC but leverage for it probably tracks margin for equities relatively closely:

    https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/604253/borrowing-more-to-buy-stocks
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    LongDukDongLongDukDong Member Posts: 1,209
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    The bitty bottom is in right near 40k. We are in the last phase of a wyckoff distribution and the spring will happen soon. Could take perhaps 1-3 weeks but we will be back to all time highs after that. Need to close above 46k to be considered on the uptrend again.

    Leverage trading is one of the main reasons whales dump their shares in order to liquidate all the leveraged degens that end up losing it all. I would never fuck around with leverage unless you know what you’re doing and invest for a living. When you’re invested long or short in leverage, there is a líquidation price where you lose it all. Whales can see this and will liquidate when too many people are using it. Leverage was astoundingly high with this recent dump to 40k.
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    MobeyB4AssholesMobeyB4Assholes Member Posts: 878
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    Better be careful. Bitcoin has become akin to a triple leveraged QQQ. If the market drops, BTC will get crushed. As it is BTC doesn't like the money printing slowing down. And it's happening world wide.
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    sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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    MobeyB4Assholes said:

    Better be careful. Bitcoin has become akin to a triple leveraged QQQ. If the market drops, BTC will get crushed. As it is BTC doesn't like the money printing slowing down. And it's happening world wide.

    Agree
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    sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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    edited January 2022
    LongDukDong said:

    The bitty bottom is in right near 40k. We are in the last phase of a wyckoff distribution and the spring will happen soon. Could take perhaps 1-3 weeks but we will be back to all time highs after that. Need to close above 46k to be considered on the uptrend again.

    Leverage trading is one of the main reasons whales dump their shares in order to liquidate all the leveraged degens that end up losing it all. I would never fuck around with leverage unless you know what you’re doing and invest for a living. When you’re invested long or short in leverage, there is a líquidation price where you lose it all. Whales can see this and will liquidate when too many people are using it. Leverage was astoundingly high with this recent dump to 40k.

    I got it going lower
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    sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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    louism2wash said:

    @sonics1993 where are you getting this info about leverage? It's obviously happening but I don't know of any data showing how much leverage is in the BTC space.

    I keep that confidential. I can't let all my trading secrets out.
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,278
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    sonics1993 said:

    louism2wash said:

    @sonics1993 where are you getting this info about leverage? It's obviously happening but I don't know of any data showing how much leverage is in the BTC space.

    I keep that confidential. I can't let all my trading secrets out.
    Come on, nobody reads this board anyway
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    LongDukDongLongDukDong Member Posts: 1,209
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    edited January 2022
    @sonics1993 how low we going, 38k?
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    DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,948
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    LongDukDong said:

    @sonics1993 how low we going, 38k?

    A few weeks ago he said $25k, and then the other day he said $35k
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    sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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    LongDukDong said:

    @sonics1993 how low we going, 38k?

    I'm targeting 33-35k
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    sonics1993sonics1993 Member Posts: 1,460
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    edited January 2022
    DerekJohnson said:

    LongDukDong said:

    @sonics1993 how low we going, 38k?

    A few weeks ago he said $25k, and then the other day he said $35k
    25k is later this year, 35k is short term
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    DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,948
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    sonics1993 said:

    DerekJohnson said:

    LongDukDong said:

    @sonics1993 how low we going, 38k?

    A few weeks ago he said $25k, and then the other day he said $35k
    25k is later this year, 35k is short term
    Interesting
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    LongDukDongLongDukDong Member Posts: 1,209
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    edited January 2022
    I have it as big support at 40k but may wick down to 38k. Then back to all time highs. Should happen relatively soon. Bitty shitting the bed as we speak
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