Query for @UW_Doog_Bot

pawz

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decline-american-empire-kubler-ross-cycle-analysis

If China is a house of cards as you've asserted, how do you square that with the presuppositions of this article (as I have assumed), or do you see those presuppositions as patently false?

TIA

WestlinnDuck

pawz said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decline-american-empire-kubler-ross-cycle-analysis

If China is a house of cards as you've asserted, how do you square that with the presuppositions of this article (as I have assumed), or do you see those presuppositions as patently false?

TIA

China has big problems. However, they are still aggressively focused outward. The problem is the moral decline of the US. When $26 a gallon used french fry oil to power a destroyer and the introduction of CRT into the US military is the key to promotion, you don't have a military. If you don't have borders, you don't have a country. When you print trillions of dollars, you won't have a currency. When fighting global warming is announced as a top military priority, you don't have priorities. Our horrendous exit from Afghanistan is front and center. Toss in the internal decline of our public education system, a corrupt and dishonest FAKE NEWS MSM, prosecutors who don't prosecute and police who can't police and you have a country in step decline.

None of this mitigates China's demographic mess or its corrupt economic system built on more debt that we have in the US. When a dementia patient that is bought and paid for by the chicoms is your CIC, you have a huge problem.

RoadTrip

WestlinnDuck said:

pawz said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decline-american-empire-kubler-ross-cycle-analysis

If China is a house of cards as you've asserted, how do you square that with the presuppositions of this article (as I have assumed), or do you see those presuppositions as patently false?

TIA

China has big problems. However, they are still aggressively focused outward. The problem is the moral decline of the US. When $26 a gallon used french fry oil to power a destroyer and the introduction of CRT into the US military is the key to promotion, you don't have a military. If you don't have borders, you don't have a country. When you print trillions of dollars, you won't have a currency. When fighting global warming is announced as a top military priority, you don't have priorities. Our horrendous exit from Afghanistan is front and center. Toss in the internal decline of our public education system, a corrupt and dishonest FAKE NEWS MSM, prosecutors who don't prosecute and police who can't police and you have a country in step decline.

None of this mitigates China's demographic mess or its corrupt economic system built on more debt that we have in the US. When a dementia patient that is bought and paid for by the chicoms is your CIC, you have a huge problem.

Dang that was depressing to read but all of it is true. It's a morbid thought to undestand the only way things get better is that they have to get much much worse first.

WestlinnDuck

RoadTrip said:

WestlinnDuck said:

pawz said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decline-american-empire-kubler-ross-cycle-analysis

If China is a house of cards as you've asserted, how do you square that with the presuppositions of this article (as I have assumed), or do you see those presuppositions as patently false?

TIA

China has big problems. However, they are still aggressively focused outward. The problem is the moral decline of the US. When $26 a gallon used french fry oil to power a destroyer and the introduction of CRT into the US military is the key to promotion, you don't have a military. If you don't have borders, you don't have a country. When you print trillions of dollars, you won't have a currency. When fighting global warming is announced as a top military priority, you don't have priorities. Our horrendous exit from Afghanistan is front and center. Toss in the internal decline of our public education system, a corrupt and dishonest FAKE NEWS MSM, prosecutors who don't prosecute and police who can't police and you have a country in step decline.

None of this mitigates China's demographic mess or its corrupt economic system built on more debt that we have in the US. When a dementia patient that is bought and paid for by the chicoms is your CIC, you have a huge problem.

Dang that was depressing to read but all of it is true. It's a morbid thought to undestand the only way things get better is that they have to get much much worse first.

Things got worse for the Roman Empire and didn't get better. When your citizenry (allegedly) votes in De Blasio after Giuliani and Bloomberg made NYC the safest big city in the Western World and then voted in a dementia patient over the one President standing up for the US and its interest since Reagan, things aren't going to get better.

UW_Doog_Bot

Short answer, the decline of the US and the collapse of the CCP are not mutually exclusive scenarios.

The US is in an era of retrenchment and culture identity war. We've been through it before and come away stronger in the long run. That's the advantage of freedom. Short term declines lead to long term growth. Can't say that our leaders are very committed to freedom these days...BUT if you really believe in the universality of American Values then you should have faith those ideas will win out, in the US at least.

Examples: The Great Depression, The space race/early cold War, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter and stagflation. Axe @YellowSnow for moar examples from history.

The US is unique in being an oil tanker capable of turning on a dime to unleash the greatest economic engine in the world.

The CCP collapse is worth an OP that I'll get to after the poaster rankings. They are the fastest and largest country to get old and in debt before getting rich is the skinny of it. The CCP knows this. It's why they are investing in a massive totalitarian security apparatus to oppress their people when the party is over.

UW_Doog_Bot

Hedgeye's model that is easy to understand.

China was in quad 2 for a long time with essentially MMT and the US capital markets propping up investments. "The party".

They covered their numbers up forever while in quad 3 "stagflation" as gdp growth fell and they kept pumping. Great for asset owners, real estate anyone?

They are quickly headed towards quad 4 and a deflationary cliff. Maybe they can keep kicking the can but lots of the recent defaults suggest otherwise. Supply chains are exiting stage left and real estate is about to undergo a massive correction. They don't have a currency anyone is going to keep as a reserve....plus a lot more.

Everyone says they're the next Japan while ignoring that Japan had a massive real estate and market collapse THEN generations of deflation so OK!

pawz

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Short answer, the decline of the US and the collapse of the CCP are not mutually exclusive scenarios.

The US is in an era of retrenchment and culture identity war. We've been through it before and come away stronger in the long run. That's the advantage of freedom. Short term declines lead to long term growth. Can't say that our leaders are very committed to freedom these days...BUT if you really believe in the universality of American Values then you should have faith those ideas will win out, in the US at least.

Examples: The Great Depression, The space race/early cold War, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter and stagflation. Axe @YellowSnow for moar examples from history.

The US is unique in being an oil tanker capable of turning on a dime to unleash the greatest economic engine in the world.

The CCP collapse is worth an OP that I'll get to after the poaster rankings. They are the fastest and largest country to get old and in debt before getting rich is the skinny of it. The CCP knows this. It's why they are investing in a massive totalitarian security apparatus to oppress their people when the party is over.

I hear your poont. However, I can stipulate many reasons why they might want a totalitarian security apparatus that has nothing to do with the foresight of self-inflicted economic peril.

pawz

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Hedgeye's model that is easy to understand.

China was in quad 2 for a long time with essentially MMT and the US capital markets propping up investments. "The party".

They covered their numbers up forever while in quad 3 "stagflation" as gdp growth fell and they kept pumping. Great for asset owners, real estate anyone?

They are quickly headed towards quad 4 and a deflationary cliff. Maybe they can keep kicking the can but lots of the recent defaults suggest otherwise. Supply chains are exiting stage left and real estate is about to undergo a massive correction. They don't have a currency anyone is going to keep as a reserve....plus a lot more.

Everyone says they're the next Japan while ignoring that Japan had a massive real estate and market collapse THEN generations of deflation so OK!

How are we not facing the same dynamic - on the fast track to stage 4?

Is survival of empires - game of thrones so to speak - who delays the inevitable longest? Or are you suggesting that our? ability to pivot quickly is what can save us?

Do our? elites even exist with that predilection anymore? (Speaking of why the blue collar working class loved Trump.)


As always, TIA

WestlinnDuck

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Short answer, the decline of the US and the collapse of the CCP are not mutually exclusive scenarios.

The US is in an era of retrenchment and culture identity war. We've been through it before and come away stronger in the long run. That's the advantage of freedom. Short term declines lead to long term growth. Can't say that our leaders are very committed to freedom these days...BUT if you really believe in the universality of American Values then you should have faith those ideas will win out, in the US at least.

Examples: The Great Depression, The space race/early cold War, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter and stagflation. Axe @YellowSnow for moar examples from history.

The US is unique in being an oil tanker capable of turning on a dime to unleash the greatest economic engine in the world.

The CCP collapse is worth an OP that I'll get to after the poaster rankings. They are the fastest and largest country to get old and in debt before getting rich is the skinny of it. The CCP knows this. It's why they are investing in a massive totalitarian security apparatus to oppress their people when the party is over.

I really think the issue is that tens of millions of American's with American values got sick of the pro Vietnamese commies, like John Kerry and after the Carter debacle voted in Reagan and a republican congress which scared the sh*t out of then relatively moderate dems. These Americans are dead. They have been replaced by idiots like the slobberer and perhaps 30 million immigrants who largely don't have American values (think of Ilhan Omar). Kerry went on to become a Senator then almost President. barry was a pro black liberationist commie who after years of AA benefits became President and hated this country. His mentor was the Weatherman murderer Bill Ayers who became a college professor and is now on a gilded state of Illinois pension. This is the guy who still thinks he didn't do enough (euphemism for not killing and blowing up enough) and thought that 25 million dead Americans would just about do it.

I can see some federal Republican victories in 2022 and 2024 given relatively honest elections, but in the Blue States and Cities there is zero support for effective anti-crime programs (which would mean lots of criminals going to prison for a long time) and closing the border and deporting illegals. I just don't see the support for an American renaissance.

46XiJCAB

WestlinnDuck said:

pawz said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decline-american-empire-kubler-ross-cycle-analysis

If China is a house of cards as you've asserted, how do you square that with the presuppositions of this article (as I have assumed), or do you see those presuppositions as patently false?

TIA

China has big problems. However, they are still aggressively focused outward. The problem is the moral decline of the US. When $26 a gallon used french fry oil to power a destroyer and the introduction of CRT into the US military is the key to promotion, you don't have a military. If you don't have borders, you don't have a country. When you print trillions of dollars, you won't have a currency. When fighting global warming is announced as a top military priority, you don't have priorities. Our horrendous exit from Afghanistan is front and center. Toss in the internal decline of our public education system, a corrupt and dishonest FAKE NEWS MSM, prosecutors who don't prosecute and police who can't police and you have a country in step decline.

None of this mitigates China's demographic mess or its corrupt economic system built on more debt that we have in the US. When a dementia patient that is bought and paid for by the chicoms is your CIC, you have a huge problem.

But what about transgender bathrooms? Why do you hate the LGBTQ community?

Kaepsknee

WestlinnDuck said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Short answer, the decline of the US and the collapse of the CCP are not mutually exclusive scenarios.

The US is in an era of retrenchment and culture identity war. We've been through it before and come away stronger in the long run. That's the advantage of freedom. Short term declines lead to long term growth. Can't say that our leaders are very committed to freedom these days...BUT if you really believe in the universality of American Values then you should have faith those ideas will win out, in the US at least.

Examples: The Great Depression, The space race/early cold War, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter and stagflation. Axe @YellowSnow for moar examples from history.

The US is unique in being an oil tanker capable of turning on a dime to unleash the greatest economic engine in the world.

The CCP collapse is worth an OP that I'll get to after the poaster rankings. They are the fastest and largest country to get old and in debt before getting rich is the skinny of it. The CCP knows this. It's why they are investing in a massive totalitarian security apparatus to oppress their people when the party is over.

I really think the issue is that tens of millions of American's with American values got sick of the pro Vietnamese commies, like John Kerry and after the Carter debacle voted in Reagan and a republican congress which scared the sh*t out of then relatively moderate dems. These Americans are dead. They have been replaced by idiots like the slobberer and perhaps 30 million immigrants who largely don't have American values (think of Ilhan Omar). Kerry went on to become a Senator then almost President. barry was a pro black liberationist commie who after years of AA benefits became President and hated this country. His mentor was the Weatherman murderer Bill Ayers who became a college professor and is now on a gilded state of Illinois pension. This is the guy who still thinks he didn't do enough (euphemism for not killing and blowing up enough) and thought that 25 million dead Americans would just about do it.

I can see some federal Republican victories in 2022 and 2024 given relatively honest elections, but in the Blue States and Cities there is zero support for effective anti-crime programs (which would mean lots of criminals going to prison for a long time) and closing the border and deporting illegals. I just don't see the support for an American renaissance.

This. It was fairly easy to right the ship in the early 80’s as a huge majority of people still considered themselves patriotic.

But Now with schools, the media, Hollywood and the ball dribblers calling America a land of Oppression, patriotism is a dirty word to most.

There aren’t enough people left in this Country that love it and still see it’s value to the rest of the world. China has taken that away from within. And it’s not coming back until their Ships are at our shores. And by then, it will be too late.

Ships at are shores are a metaphor. That won’t happen until they have effectively disabled comm’s and power grids. It won’t be until then we see the CCP, Russia and others at our doorstep.

UW_Doog_Bot

pawz said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Hedgeye's model that is easy to understand.

China was in quad 2 for a long time with essentially MMT and the US capital markets propping up investments. "The party".

They covered their numbers up forever while in quad 3 "stagflation" as gdp growth fell and they kept pumping. Great for asset owners, real estate anyone?

They are quickly headed towards quad 4 and a deflationary cliff. Maybe they can keep kicking the can but lots of the recent defaults suggest otherwise. Supply chains are exiting stage left and real estate is about to undergo a massive correction. They don't have a currency anyone is going to keep as a reserve....plus a lot more.

Everyone says they're the next Japan while ignoring that Japan had a massive real estate and market collapse THEN generations of deflation so OK!

How are we not facing the same dynamic - on the fast track to stage 4?

Is survival of empires - game of thrones so to speak - who delays the inevitable longest? Or are you suggesting that our? ability to pivot quickly is what can save us?

Do our? elites even exist with that predilection anymore? (Speaking of why the blue collar working class loved Trump.)


As always, TIA

We Are!

But we've had many recessions before and are likely to continue to have them. How many have you lived through? I can count five in my short life I've been through. Our structural problems are miniscule compared to China's because we have allowed shitty businesses to close and for innovation to replace them.

The CCP hasn't experienced a real recession since Nixon opened things up. They are facing the largest real estate bubble in history, I really can't even express to you without going full macro how big it is. That's one, admittedly large(30%+), sector of their economy AND its indicative of the way things are done in China. Shadow banks, a screwed up reserve system, overbuilt tofu dreg capital infrastructure that is a drag on the economy, electrical grid systematic failure, and many more examples are all waiting to explode. This is Japan from the 80's and their bridges to nowhere on steroids with the entire world's capital leveraged as well.

All of the war drums they are currently beating over India and Taiwan are for them to drum up nationalism and distract from their domestic agendas collapsing.

Again, I'll reiterate, OUR? decline and China's aren't mutually exclusive. We have real issues too. They pail in comparison and are magnitudes different in size to what the CCP is wrestling with and we? have thousands of inherent advantages baked in compared to them.

China is a threat. They are a yuge problem. There's also no fucking way they are going to take over the world without the USA first committing seppuku.

Lol, Four Gorges damn ALONE could wipe out most of China without us lifting a finger.