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The Coaching Carousel
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,970
As others have mentioned, nobody knows how a hire turns out and there are few sure things. As always LIPO is in effect here ...
But let's be very clear that there's way too much evidence out there that Kalen DeBoer wasn't our first target ... that was Matt Campbell
We song and danced Matt Campbell, tried to sell him on why UW was the right fit, and never closed the deal. Why? Who knows ... but what's clear is that we didn't get the job done.
At the start of the process Jen pronounced to the world that money would not be a limiting factor on the search ... we had resources
That comment doesn't match up to hiring the coach from Fresno St
Not only do we strike out on our top choice but the sleeping giant of the conference makes the splashiest of splash hires that has a 99% certainty of turning the sleeping giant into a future recruiting and on field powerhouse ...
Our response is to hire a coach from the Mountain West that is a middle of the conference recruiter there and expect all of a sudden that he and his staff are effectively going to recruit against USC and Oregon? Anybody got ocean front property in the Dakotas to sell me?
There were 2 primary criteria for this job given the state of the program and the damage that Jimmy Lake did:
1) Need a grown up HC (coordinators not an option) and someone capable of restoring a smooth running program
2) Provide a path forward to turn around the recruiting damage and neglect caused by Jimmy over the last 2 years
You can't really argue that DeBoer doesn't check the box on #1 ... winners win and he's won at all of his stops and has been a head coach long enough that the results aren't a complete fluke ... you don't get that kind of record without having clear expectations in place for what success looks like for the program
But on the recruiting side, as has been noted often, it's a complete wait and see which is concerning because as DeBoer ramps up to speed over the next 12 months (let's be clear, the 2022 class is largely a lost cause so it's on to 2023) you're going to have USC and Oregon sprinting while we're walking. That's not a recipe for success unless DeBoer is able to quickly uptick towards at least running.
The hire needed to be as risk free as possible ... this hire feels like one that has high volatility in its outcome. That's a huge concern. Instead of UW attaching itself to the top of the conference with USC and Oregon (which is where it should be), this hire feels like trying to keep our head above water and not fall back into the upper levels of mediocrity with UCLA, Arizona St, and Utah (big picture that's where Utah is and they'll fall off if/when Whittingham retires).
I'm not going to say that this is a Tyrone caliber hire ... but I will say that if you get the lower bounds of a return on this hire then you're effectively repeating the 2003-2008 time period and your ability to even think about attracting an elite coach with your next hire vanishes and you're back searching for the next version of Sark.
Hope this works out ...
And obviously it goes without saying, the sooner Jen is pushed out and the AD turned over the better. She has to own the fact that she didn't land the #1 target ... of course she'll sell this was the #1 target at all times (it of course wasn't)
But let's be very clear that there's way too much evidence out there that Kalen DeBoer wasn't our first target ... that was Matt Campbell
We song and danced Matt Campbell, tried to sell him on why UW was the right fit, and never closed the deal. Why? Who knows ... but what's clear is that we didn't get the job done.
At the start of the process Jen pronounced to the world that money would not be a limiting factor on the search ... we had resources
That comment doesn't match up to hiring the coach from Fresno St
Not only do we strike out on our top choice but the sleeping giant of the conference makes the splashiest of splash hires that has a 99% certainty of turning the sleeping giant into a future recruiting and on field powerhouse ...
Our response is to hire a coach from the Mountain West that is a middle of the conference recruiter there and expect all of a sudden that he and his staff are effectively going to recruit against USC and Oregon? Anybody got ocean front property in the Dakotas to sell me?
There were 2 primary criteria for this job given the state of the program and the damage that Jimmy Lake did:
1) Need a grown up HC (coordinators not an option) and someone capable of restoring a smooth running program
2) Provide a path forward to turn around the recruiting damage and neglect caused by Jimmy over the last 2 years
You can't really argue that DeBoer doesn't check the box on #1 ... winners win and he's won at all of his stops and has been a head coach long enough that the results aren't a complete fluke ... you don't get that kind of record without having clear expectations in place for what success looks like for the program
But on the recruiting side, as has been noted often, it's a complete wait and see which is concerning because as DeBoer ramps up to speed over the next 12 months (let's be clear, the 2022 class is largely a lost cause so it's on to 2023) you're going to have USC and Oregon sprinting while we're walking. That's not a recipe for success unless DeBoer is able to quickly uptick towards at least running.
The hire needed to be as risk free as possible ... this hire feels like one that has high volatility in its outcome. That's a huge concern. Instead of UW attaching itself to the top of the conference with USC and Oregon (which is where it should be), this hire feels like trying to keep our head above water and not fall back into the upper levels of mediocrity with UCLA, Arizona St, and Utah (big picture that's where Utah is and they'll fall off if/when Whittingham retires).
I'm not going to say that this is a Tyrone caliber hire ... but I will say that if you get the lower bounds of a return on this hire then you're effectively repeating the 2003-2008 time period and your ability to even think about attracting an elite coach with your next hire vanishes and you're back searching for the next version of Sark.
Hope this works out ...
And obviously it goes without saying, the sooner Jen is pushed out and the AD turned over the better. She has to own the fact that she didn't land the #1 target ... of course she'll sell this was the #1 target at all times (it of course wasn't)
Comments
Apparently Slick was saying today that Kelly is heading to LSU ...
If that's true, then that probably shines some light on why Campbell delayed things as long as he could because he'd be the obvious choice to head to Notre Dame
Also, we're already in middle of repeating the 2003 - 08 era courtesy of shrivel dicking during COVID and completely collapsing this season. I'm not going to say that DeBoner is inheriting a total rebuild, but let's not pretend like the cupboards are full. This season laid bare that there is a lot of overrated talent on the team and that he will need to have a great pool of assistants who can recruit hard to get back to the 10+ win level in a couple of years.
If DeBoner sucks, fire him and start again in three years (unless it's a Lake-like implosion). Just don't commit the big sin of waiting 4-5 years and allowing mediocrity to set in. The fact that Cohen fired Jimmy immediately mildly surprised me because that reflects on her as much as Jimmy. Acting like Campbell was a slam dunk for success is operating with massive blinders. Pretty funny to hear Campbell being called a "big dick move" when he coaches at the equivalent of Oregon State. Guess we should've taken a run at Jonathan Smith.
We're at the start of the '03 to '08 time period ... DeBoer is the fork in the road from Tyrone. If DeBoer is what his supporters say he is, then we won't have a repeat of the Tyrone tenure. If he's in over his head then the next 4 years look closer to Tyrone. That's the point.
There is talent on the roster. If you look at the schedule next year, there's 2 cupcakes at home to start and home conference games with Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and Oregon St. All of those games are very winnable. You have road games against Wazzu and Cal ... toss ups at worst. So there's 8. Then what do you do against Michigan St, a rebuilding ASU, UCLA, and Oregon.
If DeBoer is the coach many of you think he is, and the coach that his resume suggests that he is, then the expectation probably should be at 8 wins for next year being a positive sign.
If Campbell parlays staying at Iowa St to the Notre Dame job whether in the next few days/weeks or in the next year or two I'm pretty sure that Notre Dame will consider it a big dick move.
Every coach has risk ... it's my opinion that Campbell has far less risk than most coaches. Clearly we didn't sell him well enough and/or he's got a different plan for what he views as a better fit. Such is life.
Campbell's biggest competition in conference just left to USC, The Iowa State job just got a lot easier.
Still not seeing how Campbell is less risk than Deboer. He completely shit the bed returning 20 starters from his Fiesta Bowl winning Covid season. Fuck Campbell.
Also SC pulling recruits again probably benefits our recruiting efforts. All the LA/National guys leaving for the SEC meant the Trojans were wading more and more into our traditional Waters.
There are still scholly limits, they can only take so many, adding 5 extra guys that were heading to Bama/okie gives us a shot at 5 extra guys with a chip on their shoulder. Find them, develop, build the fence around Seattle (fuck you buckeyes) and win on the field.
The formula remains the same.
Dude has as many flags as DeBoer. Took a top-10, senior laden team, and went 7-5. I appreciated Teq’s dissertation on why his 5 losses this year weren’t actually bad (reminded me of Hugh giving an “A” grade to Locker’s 3 of 22 performance against Nebraska) - but give me a break. Dude royally flamed out this year.
AND he’s clearly fine riding it out in Ames fucking Iowa. It’s not just Washington he’s turning down. More power to him, but I’d rather have a coach who wants to win national titles and is hungry to move up the ladder.
His hire would have “won the presser,” which would be nice on the heels of Lincoln. But a few weeks later… who cares?
We need a coach who can develop talent and win games. KD has as good a chance to be that as anyone. We’ll see.
But LFG. I blow for Deboner.
It's not about beating them in recruiting, it's about making sure that you recruit well enough that your internal development and game day coaching can close the gap.
If you don't recruit well enough to keep the gap close enough, it doesn't matter how good of a coach you have
Ideally you get into that 15-20 range with Pete ...
But I don't think you can expect DeBoer to walk in and recruit to that level Day 1 ... get success the first couple of years on the field and you might be able to get the uptick to those levels when you combine with some of the off field NIL stuff with Montlake Futures gaining traction and visibility
The concern is that recruiting falls off to the point where you're not able to make that gap up ...
We'll see ... the staff hires will tell us a lot