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Statistical Trending - How Bad is the USS Jimmy Lake Defensively
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,982
This is similar to the offensive version but turning the attention defensively ...
Defensive Statistics
Yards per Carry Allowed
2016: 4.15 (4th in P12, USC 1st at 3.78)
2017: 2.62 (1st in P12)
2018: 3.63 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 3.09)
2019: 4.03 (5th in P12, Utah 1st at 2.11)
2020: 4.54
2021: 4.86 (10th in P12, Utah 1st at 3.20)
We'll see as we go through all of the data that this is really about as far as you need to go to understanding the problems defensively and understanding the why isn't that complicated. 2016 had a couple of outliers in Arizona being a rough game, Oregon being a blowout, and Oregon St hitting a large reverse that skewed the stats (6 of the 10 conference games the opposition averaged under 3 yards per carry). 2017 you have the dominance of Vita and 2018 you have the combo of Gaines and Levi. Really since recruiting Levi, we've probably struck out more than not on the recruiting trail and are paying for those misses (notably the no show class of 2017) from 2019 forward. While in some areas we've recruited well, if you look at most of our DTs we have a bunch of guys that probably fall more into the category of taking up space/blockers than guys that can penetrate and blow up OLs by disrupting plays in the backfield. Moreover, our recruiting misses at LB has resulted in not really having guys that can explode and get into the backfield. You don't get 2-3 yards per carry numbers defensively by reacting to what the offense does ... you get there by attacking the offense. If you think what Utah does (and they right now are the gold standard in the conference), so much of their defense is about attacking the LOS ... while they may get beat from time to time in the passing game they are tremendous at taking away the run and forcing you into being one dimension. The path that UW has gone is making it possible for offenses to be one dimensional ... and that's by just running the ball and taking their chances.
Yards per Pass Attempt
2016: 5.73 (1st in P12)
2017: 6.27 (1st in P12)
2018: 5.68 (1st in P12)
2019: 6.64 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 5.60)
2020: 6.32
2021: 6.55 (2nd in P12, Oregon 1st at 6.12)
None of this should be that surprising in the grand scheme of things ... the secondary has been a strong area of the defense for a while and the numbers prove it out. The area that is interesting when you look at this though is that we are able to achieve these numbers while giving up really high completion %'s (2016 = 56.2%; 2017 = 64.2%; 2018 = 63.3%; 2019 = 65.8%; 2020 = 63.2%; 2021 = 69.0%). I've contended for a while that the "book" is out on how to beat our defense and we have a really interesting secondary test balloon out there seeing what is happening down at Texas. To have an insanely high completion % at 69% like we're seeing here in 2021, one would expect that that should translate to high yards per attempt assuming a normal level of explosiveness. But that's not what we're going to find. What we're going to find is that the "book" in how to beat this defense is to leverage the short passing game via swing passes, over the middle, shovel passes, etc. as effectively variations of the run game and avoid taking shots at our CBs where the UW defense has an advantage. This is exactly what we saw with UCLA in the past game. Instead of adjusting to this by playing a more aggressive defensive game at or near the LOS and dictating to opposing offenses/QBs that the places to attack the defense being the 1 on 1 opportunities on the outside, we continue to play a bend but don't break defense that results in a death by a thousand paper cuts but at least avoids the big play. It's really gross incompetence.
Yards per Completion
2016: 10.19 (2nd in P12, ASU 1st at 10.13)
2017: 9.76 (1st in P12)
2018: 8.98 (1st in P12)
2019: 10.10 (1st in P12)
2020: 10.00
2021: 9.48 (1st in the P12)
It can't be any more clear what the objective of the defense is right? Everything about the defense is all about preventing the big play and this is despite the fact that throughout this entire time horizon we've been producing a steady stream of NFL players at this position. I suspect that if someone broke down the completion % defensively based on where the completion was made and whether the completion was against man/zone, I suspect that what you'd find is that the completion often was made away from the CBs and almost exclusively against zone coverage concepts. We are effectively hiding our best players. Preventing the big play makes a ton of sense when you're able to attack at the LOS in ways that force teams into situations where they are behind down/distance, force the check down, rally to tackle, get off the field. But that's not what is happening now. Instead, what's happening is that we're finding ourselves in positions where we're not able to get off the field consistently, teams are able to shorten the game with fewer drives, and indirectly we're putting increasing pressure on the offense to optimize their positions. This is also why I say it's so misleading when our pass defense stats are thrown out there ... they are good but the completion % means that the frequency that these events occur is higher and drives become sustained. We play a loser game defensively that is dependent on teams making mistakes but with the recruiting misses in the defensive front leading to fewer difference makers there, we're just not doing enough to force opposing offenses to make the mistakes that we're gaming for.
Yards per Play
2016: 4.90 (2nd in P12, UCLA 1st at 4.89)
2017: 4.31 (1st in P12)
2018: 4.67 (1st in P12)
2019: 5.29 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 4.11)
2020: 5.35
2021: 5.53 (4th in P12, Oregon 1st at 4.96)
A little chicken/egg on this one in terms of the takeaways depending on your perspective. If you're pro-Jimmy, you'd point out that defensively the defense is still upper 3rd in the conference and doing enough to win games. It's probably a fair comment to say that the defense isn't the biggest issue on this team. But if we're being fully honest and transparent in evaluating the state of the program, it's impossible to not recognize the fact that the defense has fallen back more towards the back in recent years and there is a connection of that fall back coming the more involved that Jimmy has been with the defense starting in 2018. The reality is that there's a combination of recruiting misses, scheme, and execution at play here. The recruiting misses on the DL/LB has resulted in a fallback in play ... there's no question about that. Our scheme is way too passive, the amount of negative plays that we're creating are reduced, and teams have figured out how to attack what we're doing and not afraid of us making adjustments out of our base. Combining those two come back a bit to execution in that it just puts an increasing premium on making the plays/tackles when they are available. Here's a real disturbing factoid about 2021 to date ... only 3 teams in the conference have seen their opponents running the ball on them more than 60% of the time: Arizona, USC, and Washington. Arizona makes sense given that a) they are really lacking P12 caliber players and b) teams are up big on them so it's easy to just run them into oblivion. USC has fired their coach, has a reputation the last few years for being soft, and appears to have largely given up ... so that one makes sense. That's the company Washington is keeping with this metric ... there's really zero reason for Washington to have teams in the P12 where Washington has largely recruited better than on both sides of the LOS to feel like they can line up on UW and dominate at the LOS. Yet, that's what they are doing. It's staggering when you really think about it.
Points per 100 Yards
2016: 6.01 (4th in P12, USC 1st at 5.53)
2017: 5.39 (1st in P12)
2018: 5.58 (1st in P12)
2019: 5.92 (3rd in P12, Oregon 1st at 4.84)
2020: 7.22
2021: 6.43 (5th in P12, Utah 1st at 5.02)
Another area where the numbers don't look THAT bad but you can see that the numbers are trending back towards the middle of the back. The scheme that we use on defense not only relies on opposing errors to be successful, but it then relies on being able to force the opposition into kicking FGs when in the red zone. As we can see in the data, that largely hasn't worked in 2020 and 2021 comparatively speaking and there are reasons behind this. First, scheme wise we aren't really doing anything in the red zone defensively to change how teams attack us. Second, analytics increasingly dictate that teams go for it in 4th down situations ... particularly in very short yardage situations. Finally, our inability to defend the run really doesn't do anything to make the opposition think differently than following the analytics. 4th and 1 inside the 10 when you're facing Vita blowing up your play may make you think that a FG might be a good idea. 4th and 1 when you're averaging 5 yards a carry has you getting to the line as quickly as possible.
Defensive Plays per Turnover
2016: 32 (2nd in P12, Utah 1st at 31)
2017: 42 (5th in P12, Wazzu 1st at 31)
2018: 36 (2nd in P12, Cal 1st at 35)
2019: 47 (4th in P12, Utah 1st at 33)
2020: 32
2021: 42 (5th in P12, Oregon St 1st at 29)
There's not too much to see here ... we're not really forcing anything more or less than we have historically. I'd probably argue that we're at risk of a back slide a bit in that looking at the 2020 numbers so much of that ZTF and that our turnovers perhaps over index a bit on fumble recoveries which are a little more random. As the talent on the defensive roster turns down (and there is a risk of that in the coming years), we should expect this number to start rising barring a change in scheme.
Defensive Statistics
Yards per Carry Allowed
2016: 4.15 (4th in P12, USC 1st at 3.78)
2017: 2.62 (1st in P12)
2018: 3.63 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 3.09)
2019: 4.03 (5th in P12, Utah 1st at 2.11)
2020: 4.54
2021: 4.86 (10th in P12, Utah 1st at 3.20)
We'll see as we go through all of the data that this is really about as far as you need to go to understanding the problems defensively and understanding the why isn't that complicated. 2016 had a couple of outliers in Arizona being a rough game, Oregon being a blowout, and Oregon St hitting a large reverse that skewed the stats (6 of the 10 conference games the opposition averaged under 3 yards per carry). 2017 you have the dominance of Vita and 2018 you have the combo of Gaines and Levi. Really since recruiting Levi, we've probably struck out more than not on the recruiting trail and are paying for those misses (notably the no show class of 2017) from 2019 forward. While in some areas we've recruited well, if you look at most of our DTs we have a bunch of guys that probably fall more into the category of taking up space/blockers than guys that can penetrate and blow up OLs by disrupting plays in the backfield. Moreover, our recruiting misses at LB has resulted in not really having guys that can explode and get into the backfield. You don't get 2-3 yards per carry numbers defensively by reacting to what the offense does ... you get there by attacking the offense. If you think what Utah does (and they right now are the gold standard in the conference), so much of their defense is about attacking the LOS ... while they may get beat from time to time in the passing game they are tremendous at taking away the run and forcing you into being one dimension. The path that UW has gone is making it possible for offenses to be one dimensional ... and that's by just running the ball and taking their chances.
Yards per Pass Attempt
2016: 5.73 (1st in P12)
2017: 6.27 (1st in P12)
2018: 5.68 (1st in P12)
2019: 6.64 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 5.60)
2020: 6.32
2021: 6.55 (2nd in P12, Oregon 1st at 6.12)
None of this should be that surprising in the grand scheme of things ... the secondary has been a strong area of the defense for a while and the numbers prove it out. The area that is interesting when you look at this though is that we are able to achieve these numbers while giving up really high completion %'s (2016 = 56.2%; 2017 = 64.2%; 2018 = 63.3%; 2019 = 65.8%; 2020 = 63.2%; 2021 = 69.0%). I've contended for a while that the "book" is out on how to beat our defense and we have a really interesting secondary test balloon out there seeing what is happening down at Texas. To have an insanely high completion % at 69% like we're seeing here in 2021, one would expect that that should translate to high yards per attempt assuming a normal level of explosiveness. But that's not what we're going to find. What we're going to find is that the "book" in how to beat this defense is to leverage the short passing game via swing passes, over the middle, shovel passes, etc. as effectively variations of the run game and avoid taking shots at our CBs where the UW defense has an advantage. This is exactly what we saw with UCLA in the past game. Instead of adjusting to this by playing a more aggressive defensive game at or near the LOS and dictating to opposing offenses/QBs that the places to attack the defense being the 1 on 1 opportunities on the outside, we continue to play a bend but don't break defense that results in a death by a thousand paper cuts but at least avoids the big play. It's really gross incompetence.
Yards per Completion
2016: 10.19 (2nd in P12, ASU 1st at 10.13)
2017: 9.76 (1st in P12)
2018: 8.98 (1st in P12)
2019: 10.10 (1st in P12)
2020: 10.00
2021: 9.48 (1st in the P12)
It can't be any more clear what the objective of the defense is right? Everything about the defense is all about preventing the big play and this is despite the fact that throughout this entire time horizon we've been producing a steady stream of NFL players at this position. I suspect that if someone broke down the completion % defensively based on where the completion was made and whether the completion was against man/zone, I suspect that what you'd find is that the completion often was made away from the CBs and almost exclusively against zone coverage concepts. We are effectively hiding our best players. Preventing the big play makes a ton of sense when you're able to attack at the LOS in ways that force teams into situations where they are behind down/distance, force the check down, rally to tackle, get off the field. But that's not what is happening now. Instead, what's happening is that we're finding ourselves in positions where we're not able to get off the field consistently, teams are able to shorten the game with fewer drives, and indirectly we're putting increasing pressure on the offense to optimize their positions. This is also why I say it's so misleading when our pass defense stats are thrown out there ... they are good but the completion % means that the frequency that these events occur is higher and drives become sustained. We play a loser game defensively that is dependent on teams making mistakes but with the recruiting misses in the defensive front leading to fewer difference makers there, we're just not doing enough to force opposing offenses to make the mistakes that we're gaming for.
Yards per Play
2016: 4.90 (2nd in P12, UCLA 1st at 4.89)
2017: 4.31 (1st in P12)
2018: 4.67 (1st in P12)
2019: 5.29 (3rd in P12, Utah 1st at 4.11)
2020: 5.35
2021: 5.53 (4th in P12, Oregon 1st at 4.96)
A little chicken/egg on this one in terms of the takeaways depending on your perspective. If you're pro-Jimmy, you'd point out that defensively the defense is still upper 3rd in the conference and doing enough to win games. It's probably a fair comment to say that the defense isn't the biggest issue on this team. But if we're being fully honest and transparent in evaluating the state of the program, it's impossible to not recognize the fact that the defense has fallen back more towards the back in recent years and there is a connection of that fall back coming the more involved that Jimmy has been with the defense starting in 2018. The reality is that there's a combination of recruiting misses, scheme, and execution at play here. The recruiting misses on the DL/LB has resulted in a fallback in play ... there's no question about that. Our scheme is way too passive, the amount of negative plays that we're creating are reduced, and teams have figured out how to attack what we're doing and not afraid of us making adjustments out of our base. Combining those two come back a bit to execution in that it just puts an increasing premium on making the plays/tackles when they are available. Here's a real disturbing factoid about 2021 to date ... only 3 teams in the conference have seen their opponents running the ball on them more than 60% of the time: Arizona, USC, and Washington. Arizona makes sense given that a) they are really lacking P12 caliber players and b) teams are up big on them so it's easy to just run them into oblivion. USC has fired their coach, has a reputation the last few years for being soft, and appears to have largely given up ... so that one makes sense. That's the company Washington is keeping with this metric ... there's really zero reason for Washington to have teams in the P12 where Washington has largely recruited better than on both sides of the LOS to feel like they can line up on UW and dominate at the LOS. Yet, that's what they are doing. It's staggering when you really think about it.
Points per 100 Yards
2016: 6.01 (4th in P12, USC 1st at 5.53)
2017: 5.39 (1st in P12)
2018: 5.58 (1st in P12)
2019: 5.92 (3rd in P12, Oregon 1st at 4.84)
2020: 7.22
2021: 6.43 (5th in P12, Utah 1st at 5.02)
Another area where the numbers don't look THAT bad but you can see that the numbers are trending back towards the middle of the back. The scheme that we use on defense not only relies on opposing errors to be successful, but it then relies on being able to force the opposition into kicking FGs when in the red zone. As we can see in the data, that largely hasn't worked in 2020 and 2021 comparatively speaking and there are reasons behind this. First, scheme wise we aren't really doing anything in the red zone defensively to change how teams attack us. Second, analytics increasingly dictate that teams go for it in 4th down situations ... particularly in very short yardage situations. Finally, our inability to defend the run really doesn't do anything to make the opposition think differently than following the analytics. 4th and 1 inside the 10 when you're facing Vita blowing up your play may make you think that a FG might be a good idea. 4th and 1 when you're averaging 5 yards a carry has you getting to the line as quickly as possible.
Defensive Plays per Turnover
2016: 32 (2nd in P12, Utah 1st at 31)
2017: 42 (5th in P12, Wazzu 1st at 31)
2018: 36 (2nd in P12, Cal 1st at 35)
2019: 47 (4th in P12, Utah 1st at 33)
2020: 32
2021: 42 (5th in P12, Oregon St 1st at 29)
There's not too much to see here ... we're not really forcing anything more or less than we have historically. I'd probably argue that we're at risk of a back slide a bit in that looking at the 2020 numbers so much of that ZTF and that our turnovers perhaps over index a bit on fumble recoveries which are a little more random. As the talent on the defensive roster turns down (and there is a risk of that in the coming years), we should expect this number to start rising barring a change in scheme.
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Comments
I don’t care enough to go to any games as of now
I may or may not care to go to games going forward
But nobody really talks about it and you hear people cite the pass defense as a sign that things are working. It’s misleading at best
The assignments on the scheme are so fucking dumb...
Interior DL; hold up OL and conservatively play two gap
Edge DL/OLB; upfield pass rush
Outside DBs; leverage correctly with help over the top
Safeties; backpedal
And then puts the Nickel and the ILBs into impossible situations.
Nickel; cover slot in press coverage TE or WR, cover them one on one man in space with no help, also set edge on any outside run that come your way.
ILBs: Chase all plays sideline to sideline, stop run inside, take on free offensive linemen on run plays inside because DL is always shorthanded, 1 ILB set edge playside while other ILB perfectly fills the backside gap on run plays, AND fucking cover 25 yards deep where the safeties are backpedaling away from before the ball is snapped.
And then to top it all off, they continue to play Asa Turner at safety when he intentionally takes poor angles so he can avoid contact.
The defensive scheme is such fucking shit, it asks the weakest position on the team to do the impossible all while expending nearly all of its resources defending the strength of the roster.
Little Jimmy Lake is just focused on protecting the outside DBs because they are "his guys".
This is also ignoring that the Defense also looks physically weaker across the board... DL is pretty shit, OLB/eDL are slow and weak, Olofoshiioio regressed, safeties are small or afraid to hit.
Tuli has gotten worse it seems. Showed promise in spot duty as an underclassmen .
Taimani is kind of a jag so far but stacks up fine vs the dt’s in the conference which isn’t saying much.
Tuitele has made some nice effort plays as a pass rusher this year.
Everyone else is too young or small sample size. That said I think they are probably playing too bland of a scheme being the main problem. I also think there are big issues with the strength and conditioning. These dudes look softer than they should.
#FireJimmy
Hard to tell what the talent level is for any of them.🤷♂️
Reality is that he’s destroying a strong program and he can’t be allowed another 12 months to inflict long term damage
His point about rearranging deck chairs is correct. I still like to focus in on individuals and position groups. There really isn't much of importance to discuss beyond firing Lake, but this forum isn't what I call important anyways.