I've heard more on this lately that the data is bad, but that it's also in geographic pockets. Much worse in southern states than Seattle, for example. Hopefully it hits hard in Texas and I can move there a year earlier than planned using that sweet W.WA equity.
An estimated 7.25 million borrowers have participated in forbearance programs at one point or another throughout the coronavirus pandemic, representing 14% of all homeowners with mortgages, according to Black Knight. About 72% of all participants have since left their plans, while 28%, or just more than 2 million, remain in active forbearance
These mortgages have significant equity, there is still a massive housing shortage, and interest rates are low. Factor in some of those in forbearance are still sucking off the unemployment subsidy and will return to work to fill the 6 million job openings.
Those that can't may be forced to sell but will probably walk with cash and quick as competitive as the buying market is now. There is more cash in checking and savings account than at any point in history.
I'll be shocked if a meaningful percentage of the mortgages currently in forbearance end up in foreclosure. If even they do with banking capital requirements, the banks are more than flush to absorb any impact.
An estimated 7.25 million borrowers have participated in forbearance programs at one point or another throughout the coronavirus pandemic, representing 14% of all homeowners with mortgages, according to Black Knight. About 72% of all participants have since left their plans, while 28%, or just more than 2 million, remain in active forbearance
These mortgages have significant equity, there is still a massive housing shortage, and interest rates are low. Factor in some of those in forbearance are still sucking off the unemployment subsidy and will return to work to fill the 6 million job openings.
Those that can't may be forced to sell but will probably walk with cash and quick as competitive as the buying market is now. There is more cash in checking and savings account than at any point in history.
I'll be shocked if a meaningful percentage of the mortgages currently in forbearance end up in foreclosure. If even they do with banking capital requirements, the banks are more than flush to absorb any impact.
In 07 the houses were barely worth half the mortgage. Good point on equity this time around but who knows how many people have tapped that ass er equity to get by
An estimated 7.25 million borrowers have participated in forbearance programs at one point or another throughout the coronavirus pandemic, representing 14% of all homeowners with mortgages, according to Black Knight. About 72% of all participants have since left their plans, while 28%, or just more than 2 million, remain in active forbearance
These mortgages have significant equity, there is still a massive housing shortage, and interest rates are low. Factor in some of those in forbearance are still sucking off the unemployment subsidy and will return to work to fill the 6 million job openings.
Those that can't may be forced to sell but will probably walk with cash and quick as competitive as the buying market is now. There is more cash in checking and savings account than at any point in history.
I'll be shocked if a meaningful percentage of the mortgages currently in forbearance end up in foreclosure. If even they do with banking capital requirements, the banks are more than flush to absorb any impact.
In 07 the houses were barely worth half the mortgage. Good point on equity this time around but who knows how many people have tapped that ass er equity to get by
Can't say with any certainty but it's much harder to get a loan than it was back in 07.
We bought a second place in Peroia, AZ in late spring '07. Paid half of what they were selling for 6 months earlier. Was offered a NINJA loan with no $ down. I passed and put 20% down and gave docs to get a better interest rate. We were the only one in the community that didn't walk when the market took a shit. You could have taken your pick of any place in the neighborhood for $50,000. It was a ghost town for almost a year. It got so bad brand new townhomes across from the Dodgers/Whitesox complex were selling for $60,000. Hundreds of them.
Anyways, I'm self-employed with good liquidity, 780 credit score and over 50% equity and got squeezed on a second. Lending standards don't match up with the self-employed. I said fuck it and passed. I have to imagine even if you have a regular W-2 job it's tuff getting a second unless you have significant equity.
I've heard more on this lately that the data is bad, but that it's also in geographic pockets. Much worse in southern states than Seattle, for example. Hopefully it hits hard in Texas and I can move there a year earlier than planned using that sweet W.WA equity.
I'm hearing about geographic pockets just locally. Think of the areas where service / restaurant workers live.
another nice difference now is that on the buy side or refi market the options available are remarkable compared to earlier times.. i'm just now doing a new house purchase and am able to get a non standard 1Million plus bank loan at 2.38% interest only on a 30 year amortization schedule with a 10 year lock before it goes variable. In other words, there is truly cheap money out there to support positive cash flow real estate transactions that can come into play to suck up non performing real estate ~ not applicable for commercial real estate, but definitely a factor for low to mid range residential. High value residential is in its own micro climate at all times anyway so also not a real factor, but will make a positive difference.
Later this is going to be a real thing though ~ as interest rates rise those people that didn't get or couldn't quality for a longer lock on their variable will be in the same squeeze as occurred in 08. Timing on that would be 23-24 for 3 year windows to expire into what could then be dramatically higher rates.
I've heard more on this lately that the data is bad, but that it's also in geographic pockets. Much worse in southern states than Seattle, for example. Hopefully it hits hard in Texas and I can move there a year earlier than planned using that sweet W.WA equity.
another nice difference now is that on the buy side or refi market the options available are remarkable compared to earlier times.. i'm just now doing a new house purchase and am able to get a non standard 1Million plus bank loan at 2.38% interest only on a 30 year amortization schedule with a 10 year lock before it goes variable. In other words, there is truly cheap money out there to support positive cash flow real estate transactions that can come into play to suck up non performing real estate ~ not applicable for commercial real estate, but definitely a factor for low to mid range residential. High value residential is in its own micro climate at all times anyway so also not a real factor, but will make a positive difference.
Later this is going to be a real thing though ~ as interest rates rise those people that didn't get or couldn't quality for a longer lock on their variable will be in the same squeeze as occurred in 08. Timing on that would be 23-24 for 3 year windows to expire into what could then be dramatically higher rates.
pawz
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 20,089 
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About 72% of all participants have since left their plans, while 28%, or just more than 2 million, remain in active forbearance
These mortgages have significant equity, there is still a massive housing shortage, and interest rates are low. Factor in some of those in forbearance are still sucking off the unemployment subsidy and will return to work to fill the 6 million job openings.
Those that can't may be forced to sell but will probably walk with cash and quick as competitive as the buying market is now. There is more cash in checking and savings account than at any point in history.
I'll be shocked if a meaningful percentage of the mortgages currently in forbearance end up in foreclosure. If even they do with banking capital requirements, the banks are more than flush to absorb any impact.
We bought a second place in Peroia, AZ in late spring '07. Paid half of what they were selling for 6 months earlier. Was offered a NINJA loan with no $ down. I passed and put 20% down and gave docs to get a better interest rate. We were the only one in the community that didn't walk when the market took a shit. You could have taken your pick of any place in the neighborhood for $50,000. It was a ghost town for almost a year. It got so bad brand new townhomes across from the Dodgers/Whitesox complex were selling for $60,000. Hundreds of them.
Anyways, I'm self-employed with good liquidity, 780 credit score and over 50% equity and got squeezed on a second. Lending standards don't match up with the self-employed. I said fuck it and passed. I have to imagine even if you have a regular W-2 job it's tuff getting a second unless you have significant equity.
Eastside ok. North and South fuct
Later this is going to be a real thing though ~ as interest rates rise those people that didn't get or couldn't quality for a longer lock on their variable will be in the same squeeze as occurred in 08. Timing on that would be 23-24 for 3 year windows to expire into what could then be dramatically higher rates.