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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

What are guys doing with big bank stocks?

godawgstgodawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,523 Founders Club
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
They do have interest rates going up for them, but there is a cap on that because of pressure from Fed/Govt to not let them get to high b/c of debt obligations and interest on such.

But every other metric says to take the gain and run. From digital currency and payment options (pay pal/square/etc), to immediate coming crisis when moratorium on renters not having to pay is up which then means bankers can ask owners for payments today and last 12 months which may won't have,

Add in secular decline in physical locations of banks in general (1500 have went away last 20 years, and another 1500 expected in next 20 years as well = total physical locations will be about 5000) coupled with 2nd generation of people including anyone under 30 who have no need/never been into a bank other than to get a home loan and open a account for their work direct deposit and I see many many more head than tailwinds going forward.

What am I missing that is making the big 4 (Wells/C/B of A/JP Morgan) along with the regionals (Columbia Bank hit all time high Friday) rip higher like they have since the start of the year?

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  • ntxduckntxduck Member Posts: 5,898
    godawgst said:

    They do have interest rates going up for them, but there is a cap on that because of pressure from Fed/Govt to not let them get to high b/c of debt obligations and interest on such.

    But every other metric says to take the gain and run. From digital currency and payment options (pay pal/square/etc), to immediate coming crisis when moratorium on renters not having to pay is up which then means bankers can ask owners for payments today and last 12 months which may won't have,

    Add in secular decline in physical locations of banks in general (1500 have went away last 20 years, and another 1500 expected in next 20 years as well = total physical locations will be about 5000) coupled with 2nd generation of people including anyone under 30 who have no need/never been into a bank other than to get a home loan and open a account for their work direct deposit and I see many many more head than tailwinds going forward.

    What am I missing that is making the big 4 (Wells/C/B of A/JP Morgan) along with the regionals (Columbia Bank hit all time high Friday) rip higher like they have since the start of the year?

    From what I know, your third paragraph Answers your fourth. Bank of America has been able to cut a ton of overhead reducing physical locations and transitioning to smart atms (ahead of the competition).
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  • EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 4,292
    godawgst said:

    They do have interest rates going up for them, but there is a cap on that because of pressure from Fed/Govt to not let them get to high b/c of debt obligations and interest on such.

    But every other metric says to take the gain and run. From digital currency and payment options (pay pal/square/etc), to immediate coming crisis when moratorium on renters not having to pay is up which then means bankers can ask owners for payments today and last 12 months which may won't have,

    Add in secular decline in physical locations of banks in general (1500 have went away last 20 years, and another 1500 expected in next 20 years as well = total physical locations will be about 5000) coupled with 2nd generation of people including anyone under 30 who have no need/never been into a bank other than to get a home loan and open a account for their work direct deposit and I see many many more head than tailwinds going forward.

    What am I missing that is making the big 4 (Wells/C/B of A/JP Morgan) along with the regionals (Columbia Bank hit all time high Friday) rip higher like they have since the start of the year?

    My guess is that the market is looking at the bank stocks as an immediate hedge against rates increasing. Not like a 30 year old looks at a stock that he wants to hold until retirement.

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  • EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 4,292
    godawgst said:

    They do have interest rates going up for them, but there is a cap on that because of pressure from Fed/Govt to not let them get to high b/c of debt obligations and interest on such.

    But every other metric says to take the gain and run. From digital currency and payment options (pay pal/square/etc), to immediate coming crisis when moratorium on renters not having to pay is up which then means bankers can ask owners for payments today and last 12 months which may won't have,

    Add in secular decline in physical locations of banks in general (1500 have went away last 20 years, and another 1500 expected in next 20 years as well = total physical locations will be about 5000) coupled with 2nd generation of people including anyone under 30 who have no need/never been into a bank other than to get a home loan and open a account for their work direct deposit and I see many many more head than tailwinds going forward.

    What am I missing that is making the big 4 (Wells/C/B of A/JP Morgan) along with the regionals (Columbia Bank hit all time high Friday) rip higher like they have since the start of the year?

    All four of your big four are down quite a bit in the first hour and a half of trading.

    C is down over 2% and JPM is off just over 1%. The other two are somewhere in between.

    I had no idea they were at highs on Friday but are up 25% (WFC) 21% (C) 14% (BAC) and 13% (JPM) since I bought them.

    It looks like one of the seven analysts that I follow has downgraded BAC and C very recently. Perhaps over the weekend.

    Your post was very timely. Thanks for the heads up.
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,739 Standard Supporter
    Wells Fargo is of the devil.

    Technically, they all are - but Wells deserves to die a fiery death after which the Throbber will dance on its ashes. Truly miserable people.

    And that's after they broomed the really bad ones.

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  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,505
    Honestly, I'm hammering in on biotech
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  • Blu82Blu82 Member Posts: 1,577
    I was at a get together that included 8 senior bankers recently. On the whole they were rather optimistic about the next 1-2 years.
    Biggest complaint they all seemed to have was with credit unions. It wasn't that any particular one or group was a threat but more of death by a thousand cuts sort of thing. The rapid growth in cu numbers is starting to cause them problems.
    I assume this will continue to be an issue as long as credit unions are allowed to skate on a bunch of taxes.
    I'm not sure which entity I hold the greatest dislike for.
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  • RoadDawg55RoadDawg55 Member Posts: 30,123
    PurpleThrobber said:

    Wells Fargo is of the devil.

    Technically, they all are - but Wells deserves to die a fiery death after which the Throbber will dance on its ashes. Truly miserable people.

    And that's after they broomed the really bad ones.

    They are all bad, but Wells is the only one to royally fuck me.
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,739 Standard Supporter
    RoadDawg55 said:

    PurpleThrobber said:

    Wells Fargo is of the devil.

    Technically, they all are - but Wells deserves to die a fiery death after which the Throbber will dance on its ashes. Truly miserable people.

    And that's after they broomed the really bad ones.

    They are all bad, but Wells is the only one to royally fuck me.
    #metoo
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  • godawgstgodawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,523 Founders Club
    ntxduck said:

    godawgst said:

    They do have interest rates going up for them, but there is a cap on that because of pressure from Fed/Govt to not let them get to high b/c of debt obligations and interest on such.

    But every other metric says to take the gain and run. From digital currency and payment options (pay pal/square/etc), to immediate coming crisis when moratorium on renters not having to pay is up which then means bankers can ask owners for payments today and last 12 months which may won't have,

    Add in secular decline in physical locations of banks in general (1500 have went away last 20 years, and another 1500 expected in next 20 years as well = total physical locations will be about 5000) coupled with 2nd generation of people including anyone under 30 who have no need/never been into a bank other than to get a home loan and open a account for their work direct deposit and I see many many more head than tailwinds going forward.

    What am I missing that is making the big 4 (Wells/C/B of A/JP Morgan) along with the regionals (Columbia Bank hit all time high Friday) rip higher like they have since the start of the year?

    From what I know, your third paragraph Answers your fourth. Bank of America has been able to cut a ton of overhead reducing physical locations and transitioning to smart atms (ahead of the competition).
    I know Wells Fargo is cutting physical locations as fast as they can also. Just closed one of two in Lewis County (the other one is just a matter of when not if) which will leave them without a presence between Vancouver and Olympia, which have 150,000 people along that part of the I-5 corridor when you add in Cowlitz County to it.

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