Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

DerekJohnson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY0flE2NZh4

DerekJohnson

On printing money:

"We're very near the edge of playing with fire"

FireCohen

DerekJohnson said:

On printing money:

"We're very near the edge of playing with fire"

The whole world is printing like crazy

creepycoug

Take it to the Inflation thread Stalin!

PurpleThrobber

Munger has always been Eeyore to Buffet's Pooh.

creepycoug

creepycoug said:

Take it to the Inflation thread Stalin!

I'm going to actually listen to this. If you see my marathon response to @HoustonHusky in the real Inflation thread, you'll realize that I actually am quite worried about this. I think about it all the time these days.

creepycoug

I listened. He says what makes sense to me. On the other hand, Munger, like Buffet, is a value investor. He looks for deals. He doesn't just jump in to the economy and hopes it keeps growing.

Still, there is this concern that the economy isn't real and we're printing make-believe currency to prop it up and, as he said, on the edge of playing with fire.

If only @UW_Doog_Bot would return and talk us? off the edge.

DerekJohnson

creepycoug said:

I listened. He says what makes sense to me. On the other hand, Munger, like Buffet, is a value investor. He looks for deals. He doesn't just jump in to the economy and hopes it keeps growing.

Still, there is this concern that the economy isn't real and we're printing make-believe currency to prop it up and, as he said, on the edge of playing with fire.

If only @UW_Doog_Bot would return and talk us? off the edge.

Bot will be back. He'll come back home.

Pitchfork51

creepycoug said:

I listened. He says what makes sense to me. On the other hand, Munger, like Buffet, is a value investor. He looks for deals. He doesn't just jump in to the economy and hopes it keeps growing.

Still, there is this concern that the economy isn't real and we're printing make-believe currency to prop it up and, as he said, on the edge of playing with fire.

If only @UW_Doog_Bot would return and talk us? off the edge.

I'm just waiting for the housing crash then buying some shit. Fortunately with remote being more of a thing (obviously it will be less so than now but the vid pushed that like 10 years ahead of schedule) options have increased greatly.

Still as a young dude (not that young but still) the ability to go where needed is pretty huge.

creepycoug

DerekJohnson said:

creepycoug said:

I listened. He says what makes sense to me. On the other hand, Munger, like Buffet, is a value investor. He looks for deals. He doesn't just jump in to the economy and hopes it keeps growing.

Still, there is this concern that the economy isn't real and we're printing make-believe currency to prop it up and, as he said, on the edge of playing with fire.

If only @UW_Doog_Bot would return and talk us? off the edge.

Bot will be back. He'll come back home.

Anybody know where he is?

DerekJohnson

creepycoug said:

DerekJohnson said:

creepycoug said:

I listened. He says what makes sense to me. On the other hand, Munger, like Buffet, is a value investor. He looks for deals. He doesn't just jump in to the economy and hopes it keeps growing.

Still, there is this concern that the economy isn't real and we're printing make-believe currency to prop it up and, as he said, on the edge of playing with fire.

If only @UW_Doog_Bot would return and talk us? off the edge.

Bot will be back. He'll come back home.

Anybody know where he is?

He emailed me the other day. He'll be back.

RaceBannon

Bot is camping with friends in Western China

creepycoug

RaceBannon said:

Bot is camping with friends in Western China

Take it to the Tug. We? don't need your political filth on this clean new sub-bored. We? are men (and one woman) of refinement and sophistication. We? drink old Scotch and smoke real Cubans here. We? don't mingle with the Oregon rabble in our club.

HFNY

The Malinvestment has been tremendous and the USA looks more and more like Europe.

What the USA (and the world somewhat) needs to do is bend the cost curve on healthcare and defense spending to receive a higher economic multiplier elsewhere while reducing the deficit. I'm even open to more EITC at the city or county level for the multiplier effect alone. Anyone else?

And when will the music stop now? Recall the Fed started printing money again in the fall of 2019 to lower the Repo rate, which was the canary in the coalmine for me.

I suspect the best way to avoid a lost decade is to go international value and with some select emerging market growth. Of course if I was the best forecaster in the entire world, I'd be busy on my super yacht instead of posting on a site called hardcorehusky.com

creepycoug

HFNY said:

The Malinvestment has been tremendous and the USA looks more and more like Europe.

What the USA (and the world somewhat) needs to do is bend the cost curve on healthcare and defense spending to receive a higher economic multiplier elsewhere while reducing the deficit. I'm even open to more EITC at the city or county level for the multiplier effect alone. Anyone else?

And when will the music stop now? Recall the Fed started printing money again in the fall of 2019 to lower the Repo rate, which was the canary in the coalmine for me.

I suspect the best way to avoid a lost decade is to go international value and with some select emerging market growth. Of course if I was the best forecaster in the entire world, I'd be busy on my super yacht instead of posting on a site called hardcorehusky.com

Hey now. You're not just on HCH.com. You're on the Fucking Creepycoug Finance Board. This is a place of prestige worldwide. We? are known for our sophisticated hot takes. If you were toiling in that cesspool known as the Oregon Bros. Tug Tavern, you'd have a point.

But you're here, so it's ok.

With that said, could amplify your post. In particular, could you dumb down for us your points about the multiplier? What is EITC?

FWIW, I have some international and some growth. The retail guys have been pushing international since we first started talking about the fate of the dollar like ten years ago. I'm not being a smartass. This is where guys like @UW_Doog_Bot come in, pointing out that we've been chicken little on the dollar (and by implication, the entire US economy) for what seems like forever.

And I'm serious. I've had a dozen retail guys regurging their national office research saying to stop exposing yourself to the US economy and dollar and go international.

Further thoughts? Yours was a good post, but I would suspect over the heads of about 40% of us (despite our noted sophistication).

godawgst

I have been in international growth and value for the last 10 plus years with pitiful and anemic results, waiting for when the US zigs it will zag narrative to come true.

Finally gave up the ghost at end of 2020 and moved it into S and P 500. Your all welcome for the dream decade overseas that will be coming your way.

doogie

S&P is a great call. set the cash flow in, minimize expenses, leave it alone and you will beat 90% of Professional Money managers.

creepycoug

doogie said:

S&P is a great call. set the cash flow in, minimize expenses, leave it alone and you will beat 90% of Professional Money managers.

This right here is a great point of discussion. The CAO at my old company - a rain man kind of figure - smartest fucking accountant I've worked with. Super conservative guy. He always said just that: retirement money, I just want the market. I don't want to try to beat it and get burned. With my (his) income, I don't need to swing for the fence. I just need to get on base and it will take care of itself in the long run.

60 + % of my 401-K is S&P.

creepycoug

godawgst said:

I have been in international growth and value for the last 10 plus years with pitiful and anemic results, waiting for when the US zigs it will zag narrative to come true.

Finally gave up the ghost at end of 2020 and moved it into S and P 500. Your all welcome for the dream decade overseas that will be coming your way.

Been noticing the same thing and have been waiting for Godot myself.

HoustonHusky

Lost decade will happen when the Fed quits printing money and organic growth is required to grow...as long as the printing presses are out the $$$ have to go somewhere. Will be volatile with some corrections but the overall trend won't stop...

DerekJohnson

HoustonHusky said:

Lost decade will happen when the Fed quits printing money and organic growth is required to grow...as long as the printing presses are out the $$$ have to go somewhere. Will be volatile with some corrections but the overall trend won't stop...

We're being conditioned to receive checks from the government even if we're employed. This will prove destructive.