Apparently 30% of existing US dollars were created in 2020...
Comments
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People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.Tequilla said:
What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?DerekJohnson said:
Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.
When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.
Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.
My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions. -
What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?creepycoug said:
Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.
What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?
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Private or public institutions?DerekJohnson said:
People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.Tequilla said:
What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?DerekJohnson said:
Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.
When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.
Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.
My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions.
If public what is your main concern? Pirating of technology?
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I guess. I have no crystal ballz, but I assume that if the US is in the gutter, other places are on life support themselves. Or is it your position that China and India are stand-alone economies?godawgst said:
What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?creepycoug said:
Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.
What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?
Where is China's market? Where do they dump on the shit they make if not here? Europe?
I'm not being rhetorical here. I'm asking. -
Also, 1 child policy and demographic decline.DerekJohnson said:
People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.Tequilla said:
What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?DerekJohnson said:
Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.
When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.
Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.
My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions. -
Both China and India population is 1.4B or almost 5 times the US with growing GDP's of at least 4% iirc. So I believe they both can and/or will be stand alone economies.creepycoug said:
I guess. I have no crystal ballz, but I assume that if the US is in the gutter, other places are on life support themselves. Or is it your position that China and India are stand-alone economies?godawgst said:
What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?creepycoug said:
Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.
What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?
Where is China's market? Where do they dump on the shit they make if not here? Europe?
I'm not being rhetorical here. I'm asking.
I also believe that the world's currency when only paying out 1% for 10 years and every 1% rise in interest rate adds another nearly 1T dollars more to the debt is not sustainable and there will be another country to fill that void. -
Doog Bots grand career, the short version(yes really, I have a lot of stories).DawgsCanDance said:So i'm curious what your background is Doog Bot... interesting comments and you sound like a knowledgeable industry professional ~ it nice to know where people are coming from a perspective standpoint so if its not too personal, do you mind me asking?
Trained in econometrics/computational finance at UW, BS in Economics(BA in Philo). Had planned on being an analyst and was already doing interesting work in that regard. Graduated in 2009 soooooooo senior Prof walked in and told us that he hoped we all had a plan B for after graduation.
Spent time globe trotting as a jr. consultant monkey since the US labor market was shit. I got to put in my edits for a major white paper on the global mining market once upon a tim. Came back after getting kicked out of Chile(shady politics) and did a lot of Business certification; Pmp, Six Sigma, Lean, etc. Started prepping for econ grad school or an MBA. Got so far as to do sit down interviews and tours of campus with some swinging dicks. Ended up hired into a major consulting firm as a PM instead and started making so much money it made no sense to go back to school. Work as a program manager doing capital construction now and pretend to be an engineer a lot.
Love economics, was exposed to it through academic decathlon at a much higher and earlier level than most. I've been watching youtube interviews with Hayek and friends since they were uploaded and still do just for fun. I follow, listen, and read the work of a lot of much smarter people than me. Still invest, though mostly in aggregate and passive index stuff. It's hard to beat the market long term if you believe in market efficiency *shrug. -
We printed how much money this year and the market has yet to blink? We could have literally paid off 2-3 T in a single year. It's way less btw, they had to defend the HK peg this year among other thingsgodawgst said:
What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?creepycoug said:
Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.
What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?
Also, if you are going to go on about budgets mattering it's best not to compare a country with a debt/gdp ratio estimated to be around 300%. That's also if you are generously accepting the CCP's GDP numbers which they themselves admit are inaccurate.
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China's population is demographically old, imbalanced, and shrinking. India's demographics are far more favorable.godawgst said:
Both China and India population is 1.4B or almost 5 times the US with growing GDP's of at least 4% iirc. So I believe they both can and/or will be stand alone economies.creepycoug said:
I guess. I have no crystal ballz, but I assume that if the US is in the gutter, other places are on life support themselves. Or is it your position that China and India are stand-alone economies?godawgst said:
What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?creepycoug said:
Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?UW_Doog_Bot said:We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.
You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.
Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.
I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.
The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.
Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.
What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?
Where is China's market? Where do they dump on the shit they make if not here? Europe?
I'm not being rhetorical here. I'm asking.
I also believe that the world's currency when only paying out 1% for 10 years and every 1% rise in interest rate adds another nearly 1T dollars more to the debt is not sustainable and there will be another country to fill that void.
The world's currency is the world's currency because it's the only government in the world that hasn't ever defaulted on it's debts. It's got a low return because it's inherent risk is essentially zero.
The EU is in shambles, Russia is hilariously unreliable, the CCP won't let you transfer capital out of China, so who exactly are you going to call Daddy? Go buy more yellow bricks I guess.
Any other CCP talking points? -
Franny?!?!
