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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Apparently 30% of existing US dollars were created in 2020...

DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Posts: 33,321
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edited December 2020 in Creepy Coug's Finance Bored
Per Tim Pool.

At what point do we risk seeing hyperinflation?

Curious of everyone's point of view, but in particular @UW_Doog_Bot
creepycoug
«1

Comments

  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
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    We don't b/c the Govt will

    a) take out any metric that is inflationary to show that there is none keeping the "core rate" low. They will also "encourage" the banks to keep interest rates low as well
    b) At some point declare the debt null and void and the treasuries you bought (hi China) will be worthless (or you will get 5-10% on the dollar) and your just sol
    Fire_Marshall_Bill
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Posts: 8,940
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    godawgst said:

    We don't b/c the Govt will

    a) take out any metric that is inflationary to show that there is none keeping the "core rate" low. They will also "encourage" the banks to keep interest rates low as well
    b) At some point declare the debt null and void and the treasuries you bought (hi China) will be worthless (or you will get 5-10% on the dollar) and your just sol

    Lol this is a terrible take.
    creepycoug
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Posts: 8,940
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    Also I like Tim on some things but he is super out of his depth when talking finance and economics.
    creepycougpawzYellowSnow
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Posts: 33,321
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    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.
    creepycougUW_Doog_Bot
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,486
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?
    GrundleStiltzkinUW_Doog_Bot
  • DawgsCanDanceDawgsCanDance Posts: 336
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    edited December 2020
    So i'm curious what your background is Doog Bot... interesting comments and you sound like a knowledgeable industry professional ~ it nice to know where people are coming from a perspective standpoint so if its not too personal, do you mind me asking?
    creepycoug
  • DawgsCanDanceDawgsCanDance Posts: 336
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    edited December 2020
    My take is that we are on all new ground. The market is now trading at the highest multiple of cash flow, EPS, revenue and debt in modern history ~ and its not even close.

    We are also sitting on the lowest short selling position since the data has been available [2003?], interest rates are low, the Fed is aggressively buying corporate bonds [even junk bonds] to maintain the borrowing ability of corporations, business re-investment % growth rate had cratered to below 2008 levels in the second quarter and is now rising again, and the face to face service economy which represents about 30% of sales has experienced an unprecedented hit to EPS, Rev and debt such that the economics of a sustainable model now are questionable for a percentage of businesses.

    In the face of that, widespread inflationary pressures would seem to be "impossible" in the fed's near term view. We have seen price spikes for commodities and products on the basis of demand vs supply given the supply disruptions but the longer view on inflationary pressures for goods and raw materials will take time to materialize. No one knows yet what the new normal will be for a sizeable portion of the previous makeup of the US economy.

    What we do have at this point [and which is fortunate given the circumstances] is a whale of a bubble in financial assets [and retirement plans which form a lot of the liquidity that backstops the public's stability along with the equity in real estate] as Doog Bot has stated ~ and real estate in many markets has done well, although we are seeing a powerful migration aways from a lot of major US cities in favor or more remote smaller town locations. The unseen hand of the high rate of pending defaults which approaches the same 20% failure rate in major metropolitan areas as we experienced in 2008 has yet to play out.

    In spite of the current probable over valuation, periods of over valuation can persist well past the rational explanation time-period and often do. These are clearly weird times that will require flexibility and at times decisive decision making and a willingness to increase and reduce exposure as events unfold and evaluate market rotation trends in order to keep powder dry and still have a chance to participate in what has been a sustained upward move across all categories almost without exception.

    This is just my 2 cents and these are the kinds of things I'm looking at ~ my perspective is that I'm a Fintec analyst and a managed money model portfolio provider in the financial marketplace.
    DerekJohnsoncreepycougUW_Doog_BotGreenRiverGatorz
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,704
    10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments Seventh Anniversary

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.
    What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Posts: 33,321
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    Tequilla said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.
    What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?
    People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.

    In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.

    When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.

    Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.

    My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions.
    UW_Doog_BotFire_Marshall_BillPitchfork51
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 1,000 Awesomes 250 Answers

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?
    What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?

    Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.

    What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?

    UW_Doog_Bot
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 1,000 Awesomes 250 Answers

    Tequilla said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.
    What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?
    People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.

    In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.

    When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.

    Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.

    My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions.
    Private or public institutions?

    If public what is your main concern? Pirating of technology?



  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,486
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    godawgst said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?
    What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?

    Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.

    What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?

    I guess. I have no crystal ballz, but I assume that if the US is in the gutter, other places are on life support themselves. Or is it your position that China and India are stand-alone economies?

    Where is China's market? Where do they dump on the shit they make if not here? Europe?

    I'm not being rhetorical here. I'm asking.
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,105
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    Tequilla said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Okay thank you. The only thing I feel certain about is that China is a lot weaker than people realize.
    What about China do you feel is weaker than people realize?
    People view China as a growing superpower gobbling up nations and ready to challenge the USA.

    In reality, China has its wealth concentrated on the coast but 80-90% of its population is living in abject third world poverty. China's investments have been wasteful and unproductive, and as of five years ago it was 1 out of 7 shipments leaving China was bound for Wal-Mart. So they are massively dependent on the American consumer. They don't have the ability to produce items that their own citizens will buy on a similar scale. So if the USA's economy contracts, the effects on Chinese business would be staggering.

    When you see Kim Grinolds feeling threatened or insecure, what does he do? He begins threatening posters, issuing time outs and banning people out of existence. That's the equivalent of what China is doing. This includes the desperate power grabs with Hong Kong and bullying they've done of late with some smaller SE Asian countries.

    Militarily, the Chinese don't even control the South China Sea, the USA holds the greatest influence there. The Chinese don't even have aircraft carriers I believe. They are a long ways away from being militarily dominant.

    My biggest concern about China is the degree to which they have infiltrated and influence American institutions.
    Also, 1 child policy and demographic decline.
    GrundleStiltzkinDerekJohnson
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 1,000 Awesomes 250 Answers

    godawgst said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?
    What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?

    Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.

    What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?

    I guess. I have no crystal ballz, but I assume that if the US is in the gutter, other places are on life support themselves. Or is it your position that China and India are stand-alone economies?

    Where is China's market? Where do they dump on the shit they make if not here? Europe?

    I'm not being rhetorical here. I'm asking.
    Both China and India population is 1.4B or almost 5 times the US with growing GDP's of at least 4% iirc. So I believe they both can and/or will be stand alone economies.

    I also believe that the world's currency when only paying out 1% for 10 years and every 1% rise in interest rate adds another nearly 1T dollars more to the debt is not sustainable and there will be another country to fill that void.
    UW_Doog_Bot
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Posts: 8,940
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments
    godawgst said:

    We are a long ways off from hyperinflation across a commodity basket.

    You will see inflation in assets and equities since that's where the lions share of bail out and stimulus went.

    Good time to own a house in a desirable area and have a 401k diversified in the market.

    I WOULD divest of Chinese exposure both in China and those listed in the US sometime in the near future. Biden will extend their bubble but it's going to pop none the less at some point.

    The only things valuable if US treasuries fail are guns and ammo. That said they are a shit investment atm bc of rates. Lots of other opportunities as well in all the chaos.


    Drafting off of you, of course, but that's my amateur take because it makes sense. If the US dollar fails, where you gonna go? Where's the safe haven? Shiny yellow heavy bricks? Maybe in the short term because of the psychology of history. But it goes on for any length of tim, who wants stuff that can't feed, house or protect you?
    What about Chinese Yuan of Indian Ruple?

    Eventually even for Countries, budgets matter.

    What happens when the US Govt finally has to admit they can/never be able to payback the 2-3 T in treasuries China owns?


    We printed how much money this year and the market has yet to blink? We could have literally paid off 2-3 T in a single year. It's way less btw, they had to defend the HK peg this year among other things

    Also, if you are going to go on about budgets mattering it's best not to compare a country with a debt/gdp ratio estimated to be around 300%. That's also if you are generously accepting the CCP's GDP numbers which they themselves admit are inaccurate.
    creepycoug
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