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Deep Dive: Run vs Pass Plays on 2nd and Long
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,825
Lots of noise and complaints about our decisions to run the ball on 2nd and long situations (I'm defining as anything 2nd and 7+) so I decided to actually go back and chart each of our plays in those situations through the 1st 3 games (given game situation, I didn't look into the 4th quarter against Arizona). What I found was relatively interesting:
Overall, the sample set shows that UW has had a total of 36 plays that have been run in 2nd and long situations (which is a super high number IMO and probably worthy of another discussion point). Of those 36 plays, there have been 12 runs and 24 passes for a pretty easy 1/3 to 2/3 split. Moreover, this ratio has largely been the same in each game so far (OSU was 3 out of 10 runs; Arizona was 4 of 12 runs; Utah was 5 of 14 runs).
While the 1/3 run mix in these situations seems high, the reality is that that's pretty consistent with the NFL season to date (https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html) where the NFL average is 32% run, 68% pass. For those that want to get super critical (and I'm talking specifically to you @Gladstone), the best offenses with the best QBs are going to be more in the 25% run and 75% pass mix (talking about teams like KC, Seattle, Tampa, and even the Joe Brady led Carolina offense).
It shouldn't be a huge shocker that pass plays on average generate more yards per play than run plays ... that's fairly obvious to most. But even in what should be obvious passing situations like 2nd and long, the NFL numbers really highlight the gap as the NFL yards per carry average to 4.6 ypc vs 7.3 yards per passing attempt.
When looking at UW's performance on 2nd and long situations, while the ratio is maybe just a touch high on the run mix, it's the performance in those situations that is stunning:
For UW's 12 runs in 2nd and long, they've gained a total of 27 yards for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. But the numbers are even worse than that as they gained 28 yards against Arizona. So in the 8 runs against Oregon St and Utah, Washington has actually lost 1 yard (-1 vs the Beavers, 0 vs Utah).
One would rightfully conclude that teams are stacking the box against UW on 2nd and long situations figuring that UW is going to either run or throw short to intermediate routes to set up 3rd and short for a young QB. And the performance when we do throw the ball indicates why teams aren't worried about the pass in these situations:
On UW's 24 pass attempts on 2nd and long, they've averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Only 14 of those 24 pass attempts have resulted in positive gains with only 5 of those 14 completions resulting in plays for 10+ yards.
So what are the solutions based on what we're seeing so far:
Overall, the sample set shows that UW has had a total of 36 plays that have been run in 2nd and long situations (which is a super high number IMO and probably worthy of another discussion point). Of those 36 plays, there have been 12 runs and 24 passes for a pretty easy 1/3 to 2/3 split. Moreover, this ratio has largely been the same in each game so far (OSU was 3 out of 10 runs; Arizona was 4 of 12 runs; Utah was 5 of 14 runs).
While the 1/3 run mix in these situations seems high, the reality is that that's pretty consistent with the NFL season to date (https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html) where the NFL average is 32% run, 68% pass. For those that want to get super critical (and I'm talking specifically to you @Gladstone), the best offenses with the best QBs are going to be more in the 25% run and 75% pass mix (talking about teams like KC, Seattle, Tampa, and even the Joe Brady led Carolina offense).
It shouldn't be a huge shocker that pass plays on average generate more yards per play than run plays ... that's fairly obvious to most. But even in what should be obvious passing situations like 2nd and long, the NFL numbers really highlight the gap as the NFL yards per carry average to 4.6 ypc vs 7.3 yards per passing attempt.
When looking at UW's performance on 2nd and long situations, while the ratio is maybe just a touch high on the run mix, it's the performance in those situations that is stunning:
For UW's 12 runs in 2nd and long, they've gained a total of 27 yards for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. But the numbers are even worse than that as they gained 28 yards against Arizona. So in the 8 runs against Oregon St and Utah, Washington has actually lost 1 yard (-1 vs the Beavers, 0 vs Utah).
One would rightfully conclude that teams are stacking the box against UW on 2nd and long situations figuring that UW is going to either run or throw short to intermediate routes to set up 3rd and short for a young QB. And the performance when we do throw the ball indicates why teams aren't worried about the pass in these situations:
On UW's 24 pass attempts on 2nd and long, they've averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Only 14 of those 24 pass attempts have resulted in positive gains with only 5 of those 14 completions resulting in plays for 10+ yards.
So what are the solutions based on what we're seeing so far:
- Must successfully stretch defenses vertically. Defenses are not respecting Morris to beat them at this point over the top and as such the ability to stack the box not only negatively impacts the ability to run successfully, but it creates challenges in completing underneath throws to create either 3rd and short or YAC opportunities to pick up the 1st down.
- As teams run stacked boxes, the opportunities to stretch are vertically (which we're not going to see until Morris substantially makes defenses pay for stacking boxes) or horizontally. If we're going to run the ball on 2nd and long situations, we need to work in more jet sweeps and wide plays to loosen our runs between the tackles. In general, this is an opportunity for the offense in general as I feel like we can run these plays probably 2-5x more per game than we currently are.
- Need to go to more 3 WR sets on 2nd and long to force the defense to spread the field . Again, this will help to loosen the numbers in the between the tackle run game creating better opportunities for success. Running more of a power set in those situations really limits opportunities to be successful as we're either looking at WRs facing more predictable situations for defenses to cover (single safety deep against 1 WR) or a lot of play action and boot actions.
Comments
Tequilla long, did read. Good shit. Makes me less angry about the play calling.