From what I've seen, the K shaped recovery is a big driver of what's happening at the moment and @pawz hit the nail on the head with respect to a few of his comments.
I know lots of people who didn't get hit by the shutdown who are moving from big cities to smaller or mid-sized cities or rural areas. The ability to work remotely has allowed people to execute against their retirement plans 10-15 years earlier than planned. I have a bunch of brand new neighbors whose thinking was why stay in DC when you can get paid your same salary and live in a place that you enjoy and costs about half as much. Our neighborhood is setting records for sale prices every single month, with no end in sight. Every one of them have said that their employers finally gave the greenlight to them working remote 100% of the time. It was always their plan to move here, Covid just helped them move the timeline way up. Also, when you can't go on vacation and out to eat for months, you end up with a shit ton more disposable income and thus want to stop living in a shoebox that costs you $5k a month.
On the flip side, I think that right around when the vaccine shows up there are going to be some deals in big cities. Younger people aren't the ones moving, mid-career and senior people are the ones moving to the suburbs. Reduced prices are going to lead to a big inflow of younger people, who were hit a lot harder by the shutdowns. The allure of cities still exists, particularly for the younger professional demographic. Lower paid service workers are struggling a lot more, and that's who is getting killed right now. I have some service industry friends from high school that got killed this year, and are barely hanging on right now, especially those that had the extra $600 disappear in August. They don't like hearing how the stock market is booming when they can barely make rent each month.
From what I've seen, the K shaped recovery is a big driver of what's happening at the moment and @pawz hit the nail on the head with respect to a few of his comments.
I know lots of people who didn't get hit by the shutdown who are moving from big cities to smaller or mid-sized cities or rural areas. The ability to work remotely has allowed people to execute against their retirement plans 10-15 years earlier than planned. I have a bunch of brand new neighbors whose thinking was why stay in DC when you can get paid your same salary and live in a place that you enjoy and costs about half as much. Our neighborhood is setting records for sale prices every single month, with no end in sight. Every one of them have said that their employers finally gave the greenlight to them working remote 100% of the time. It was always their plan to move here, Covid just helped them move the timeline way up. Also, when you can't go on vacation and out to eat for months, you end up with a shit ton more disposable income and thus want to stop living in a shoebox that costs you $5k a month.
On the flip side, I think that right around when the vaccine shows up there are going to be some deals in big cities. Younger people aren't the ones moving, mid-career and senior people are the ones moving to the suburbs. Reduced prices are going to lead to a big inflow of younger people, who were hit a lot harder by the shutdowns. The allure of cities still exists, particularly for the younger professional demographic. Lower paid service workers are struggling a lot more, and that's who is getting killed right now. I have some service industry friends from high school that got killed this year, and are barely hanging on right now, especially those that had the extra $600 disappear in August. They don't like hearing how the stock market is booming when they can barely make rent each month.
I hate this post more than anything I've ever read here.
From what I've seen, the K shaPed recovery is a bIg driver of what's happening at The moment and @pawz hit the nail on the head with respeCt to a few of His comments.
I know lots of people who didn't get hit by the shutdown who are moving FrOm big cities to smalleR or mid-sized cities or rural areas. The ability to work remotely has allowed people to execute against their retirement plans 10-15 years earlier than planned. I have a bunch of brand new neighbors whose thinKing was why stay in DC WhEn you cAn get paid youR same Salary and live in a place that you enjoy and costs about half as much. Our neighborhood is setting records for sale prices every single month, with no end in sight. Every one of them have said that their employers finally gave the greenlight to them worKiNg rEmotE 100% of the time. It was always their PlAn to move here, CoviD juSt helped Them mOve the timeline way up. Also, when you can't Go on vAcation and out to eat for months, You end up with a shit ton more disposable income and thus want to stop living in a shoeBox thAt costs you $5k a month.
On the flip side, I think that Right around when the vaccine Shows up there are going to be some deals in big cities. Younger people aren't the ones moving, mid-career and senior people are the ones moving to the suburbs. Reduced prices are going to lead to a big inflow of younger people, who were hit a lot harder by the shutdowns. The allure of cities still exists, particularly for the younger professional demographic. Lower paid service workers are struggling a lot more, and that's who is getting killed right now. I have some service industry friends from high school that got killed this year, and are barely hanging on right now, especially those that had the extra $600 disappear in August. They don't like hearing how the stock market is booming when they can barely make rent each month.
Per Zillow, my residence is 2.25x what I paid for it 8 years ago ... so that's good.
Lessons learned ... real estate IS an investment and needs to be treated as such, particularly with respect to home residence.
There will be lots of opportunities emerging from COVID and what will almost assuredly be a recession if Biden wins
I think we are in a housing bubble, and it will burst. So definitely opportunity will be there, but the new laws will make it extremely stressful to be a residential landlord. Unless you own these properties free and clear, you are exposing your portfolio to disaster. Imagine these landlords that have mortgages on these houses and not being able to collect rent for the last 7 months.
That is my walk-away.
I'm conservative. Even on the residential side, I've left money on the table waiting too long to move up the real estate food chain into places I could have afforded long ago, and watched the increases in value from the sidelines.
I'm long on Seattle for private residence home value, regardless of the doom and gloom about the city. I'll be right as rain on that point.
I can't see myself being a landlord. I'd rather own an apartment REIT and let them deal with it.
Appreciation for the market my house sits in for 2021 is forecasted at an absurd 18%. There’s almost no 4 bedroom inventory and everyone still wants to GTFO of SFO, PDX and SEA for the Zoomtowns.
Comments
I know lots of people who didn't get hit by the shutdown who are moving from big cities to smaller or mid-sized cities or rural areas. The ability to work remotely has allowed people to execute against their retirement plans 10-15 years earlier than planned. I have a bunch of brand new neighbors whose thinking was why stay in DC when you can get paid your same salary and live in a place that you enjoy and costs about half as much. Our neighborhood is setting records for sale prices every single month, with no end in sight. Every one of them have said that their employers finally gave the greenlight to them working remote 100% of the time. It was always their plan to move here, Covid just helped them move the timeline way up. Also, when you can't go on vacation and out to eat for months, you end up with a shit ton more disposable income and thus want to stop living in a shoebox that costs you $5k a month.
On the flip side, I think that right around when the vaccine shows up there are going to be some deals in big cities. Younger people aren't the ones moving, mid-career and senior people are the ones moving to the suburbs. Reduced prices are going to lead to a big inflow of younger people, who were hit a lot harder by the shutdowns. The allure of cities still exists, particularly for the younger professional demographic. Lower paid service workers are struggling a lot more, and that's who is getting killed right now. I have some service industry friends from high school that got killed this year, and are barely hanging on right now, especially those that had the extra $600 disappear in August. They don't like hearing how the stock market is booming when they can barely make rent each month.
I can't argue with a single damn word.
I'm conservative. Even on the residential side, I've left money on the table waiting too long to move up the real estate food chain into places I could have afforded long ago, and watched the increases in value from the sidelines.
I'm long on Seattle for private residence home value, regardless of the doom and gloom about the city. I'll be right as rain on that point.
I can't see myself being a landlord. I'd rather own an apartment REIT and let them deal with it.