Baseman lowers Starbucks (SBUX) to Hold.
Comments
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You’re conflating the P&L and cash flow. I wasn’t talking about FCF. And capex is a good thing and drives most of the growth. Buybacks help over time too but they only add ~2% or so per year to growth.Baseman said:
Wrong. Cash flow from operations - Capex = Free Cash FlowSonnyShackelford said:Capex has little impact on EPS btw. Will be back to $3+ in EPS shortly and competition decimated (how’s your little corner barista going to do through all this?).
Should be trading at $90+ in this market. Quality restaurants stocks always trade at a high multiple (check out CMG)
Free Cash Flow - Dividends = $ for growth or stock buybacks.
Starbucks won't cut their divided and stock Buybacks has has been a major driver of Starbucks EPS growth.
With downward pressure from decreased sales and projected capex increases for reconfiguring existing stores and closures, EPS growth will suffer for the foreseeable future.
HTH
Those investments in on-the-go are more than maintenance capex. Some is going to unit growth too.
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el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
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I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.Sources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
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There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election endsBaseman said:
I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.Sources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
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Starbucks near term Capex will do little to drive revenue. It's more about long term consumer demand. People aren't going to sit in Starbucks Cafes anymore. It's pickup your drink and go. Sales and profit are way down and it's not going to change in the near term. Last year Starbucks bought back 11.6% of their shares (not the 2% you claimed) and they still earned .30 less than the year before.SonnyShackelford said:
You’re conflating the P&L and cash flow. I wasn’t talking about FCF. And capex is a good thing and drives most of the growth. Buybacks help over time too but they only add ~2% or so per year to growth.Baseman said:
Wrong. Cash flow from operations - Capex = Free Cash FlowSonnyShackelford said:Capex has little impact on EPS btw. Will be back to $3+ in EPS shortly and competition decimated (how’s your little corner barista going to do through all this?).
Should be trading at $90+ in this market. Quality restaurants stocks always trade at a high multiple (check out CMG)
Free Cash Flow - Dividends = $ for growth or stock buybacks.
Starbucks won't cut their divided and stock Buybacks has has been a major driver of Starbucks EPS growth.
With downward pressure from decreased sales and projected capex increases for reconfiguring existing stores and closures, EPS growth will suffer for the foreseeable future.
HTH
Those investments in on-the-go are more than maintenance capex. Some is going to unit growth too.
Revenue run rate is trending $4 Billion below last year (down 15%) The stock currently trades at 29x forward earnings. It was a screaming buy @ $50 earlier this year. I wouldn't pay more than $60 right now. There are better opportunities. -
We lucky fucking big brother step up and backstopped the whole thabSources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
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Sources said:
el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy MANGINA, profit.
We've gone over this already -
1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."Sources said:
There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election endsBaseman said:
I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.Sources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"
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Admittedly some contradiction there, but I should clarify that it's a matter of horizon. I tend to invest short term, which is why I'm avoiding going long on anything outside of what looks opportunistic (e.g., TSLA). For the majority of folks, buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market. FAANG is also much more correction-proof in part because of the confidence people have in those companies as well as the fact that these companies have business models that don't require people in officesBaseman said:
1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."Sources said:
There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election endsBaseman said:
I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.Sources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends" -
Agree, although I'm wary of Netflix going forwardSources said:
buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market.Baseman said:
1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."Sources said:
There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election endsBaseman said:
I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.Sources said:el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"
