Kyle Bass on China and the coronavirus

UW_Doog_Bot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exASOIXH8So

Good interview, bad combover.

Kaepsknee

I thought this was the guy in Tenacious D, but it isn't. So not watching.

UW_Doog_Bot

TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.

GrundleStiltzkin

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

UW_Doog_Bot

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

Kaepsknee

UW_Doog_Bot said:

TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.

Sooo... I was right.

GrundleStiltzkin

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

UW_Doog_Bot

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

Time at which he's talking about that?

Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.

In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?

Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.

The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.

I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.

GrundleStiltzkin

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

Time at which he's talking about that?

Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.

In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?

Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.

The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.

I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.

Yeah, that's what I meant n stuff.

Honestly.

UW_Doog_Bot

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

Time at which he's talking about that?

Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.

In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?

Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.

The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.

I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.

Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."

If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year.

GrundleStiltzkin

UW_Doog_Bot said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

Time at which he's talking about that?

Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.

In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?

Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.

The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.

I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.

Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."

If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year.

I guess I'll need it like I'm 4, but I appreciated their effort.

Sledog

UW_Doog_Bot said:

TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.

And tell them they owe double that amount.

DerekJohnson

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

GrundleStiltzkin said:

I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.

At least you tried and that's what matters.

So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.

Time at which he's talking about that?

Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.

In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?

Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.

The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.

I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.

Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."

If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year.

I guess I'll need it like I'm 4, but I appreciated their effort.

DerekJohnson

I'm halfway through the Bass interview. Lots of insight.

LoneStarDawg

UW_Doog_Bot

LoneStarDawg said:

YVBE

GrundleStiltzkin

UW_Doog_Bot said:

LoneStarDawg said:

YVBE