Need @UW_Doog_Bot to learn us here....is the response to the Covid pandemic going to destroy half the worlds economies or what?
It's going to ass-rape economies across the world and that's putting it lightly. Luckily, as I've mentioned elsewhere and as this example illustrates, US dollars and treasuries are IT. The US is probably the only economy that has a chance of reasonably weathering this as simply a "normal" recession other than I guess maybe Sweden?
The Fed could QE another 5 trillion and demand won't blink imo. Everyone in the world is rushing into dollars as the reserve currency because what else is there that's a stable hold of value? If anything, the FED is going to have to continue to print money just to keep liquidity in the markets as everyone holds their dollars. We MIGHT get inflation on the back end of that as everyone unloads their cash when things settle but I doubt it will be the kind we worry about since their will be a lot of deflationary pressure at the same time.
My major concern is that loads of this printed money is going to go to Wall Street, major banks, government entities, and major corporations which will exacerbate the wealth gap while main street is seriously in trouble from this. That in turn could lead to more populism and calls for socialism despite the fact that this is, in fact, how socialism works.
I wonder what @insinceredawg's thoughts are on the matter. I'm sure it's as deep as something HH or Bearswiin has on international monetary economics.
I like it when you finish up your posts by taking shots at people. I like that.
Need @UW_Doog_Bot to learn us here....is the response to the Covid pandemic going to destroy half the worlds economies or what?
It's going to ass-rape economies across the world and that's putting it lightly. Luckily, as I've mentioned elsewhere and as this example illustrates, US dollars and treasuries are IT. The US is probably the only economy that has a chance of reasonably weathering this as simply a "normal" recession other than I guess maybe Sweden?
The Fed could QE another 5 trillion and demand won't blink imo. Everyone in the world is rushing into dollars as the reserve currency because what else is there that's a stable hold of value? If anything, the FED is going to have to continue to print money just to keep liquidity in the markets as everyone holds their dollars. We MIGHT get inflation on the back end of that as everyone unloads their cash when things settle but I doubt it will be the kind we worry about since their will be a lot of deflationary pressure at the same time.
My major concern is that loads of this printed money is going to go to Wall Street, major banks, government entities, and major corporations which will exacerbate the wealth gap while main street is seriously in trouble from this. That in turn could lead to more populism and calls for socialism despite the fact that this is, in fact, how socialism works.
I wonder what @insinceredawg's thoughts are on the matter. I'm sure it's as deep as something HH or Bearswiin has on international monetary economics.
Like winter, inflation is coming. It's coming but it's about 18 months out. The Throbber has an acquaintance who closely follows T-Bills and gold prices and a bunch of other shit and he thinks it will be 12 months.
There's always crazy ass gold bugs out there - but this tim, there's really no alternative to the massive printing of paper by the Fed. China is kind of fucked - how are they going to buy more treasuries?
@UW_Doog_Bot -what's your take relative to the supply side? Right now, demand is low given nobody is doing shit...therefore prices are remaining low as well. Eventually though, people will get back to normal and they are going to be competing over the same relative supply with paper that has been devalued. Or at least that's how my peabrain sees it.
On a micro level, there's going to be some SCREAMING deals out there in the next few months. People who have lost their jobs will be ditching their toys - ATVs, boats, cars in order to buy groceries and keep their homes. A $1200 check signed by Donald J. Trump doesn't cover a $400 per month boat payment for very long (in fact, 3 months....MAFF!!).
All those screaming deals means there will be very little interest in new homes, new cars, new RVs, new boats. What there is going to be a great deal of interest in is for the state and local governments to massively raise taxes to pay to keep their overpaid and under worked employees happy. The curve was bent but at the cost of trillions of dollars of current and future economic activity. Bending the curve was to save hospitals from being swamped not to stop the chicom crud. That's worked. It was just to spread out the infection rate. But I just heard Inslee saying that opening up would cost lives. So, stay closed, and push the infection to the next flu season and then shut down again? Leftards don't do science. They do fear and social control.
Need @UW_Doog_Bot to learn us here....is the response to the Covid pandemic going to destroy half the worlds economies or what?
It's going to ass-rape economies across the world and that's putting it lightly. Luckily, as I've mentioned elsewhere and as this example illustrates, US dollars and treasuries are IT. The US is probably the only economy that has a chance of reasonably weathering this as simply a "normal" recession other than I guess maybe Sweden?
The Fed could QE another 5 trillion and demand won't blink imo. Everyone in the world is rushing into dollars as the reserve currency because what else is there that's a stable hold of value? If anything, the FED is going to have to continue to print money just to keep liquidity in the markets as everyone holds their dollars. We MIGHT get inflation on the back end of that as everyone unloads their cash when things settle but I doubt it will be the kind we worry about since their will be a lot of deflationary pressure at the same time.
My major concern is that loads of this printed money is going to go to Wall Street, major banks, government entities, and major corporations which will exacerbate the wealth gap while main street is seriously in trouble from this. That in turn could lead to more populism and calls for socialism despite the fact that this is, in fact, how socialism works.
I wonder what @insinceredawg's thoughts are on the matter. I'm sure it's as deep as something HH or Bearswiin has on international monetary economics.
Like winter, inflation is coming. It's coming but it's about 18 months out. The Throbber has an acquaintance who closely follows T-Bills and gold prices and a bunch of other shit and he thinks it will be 12 months.
There's always crazy ass gold bugs out there - but this tim, there's really no alternative to the massive printing of paper by the Fed. China is kind of fucked - how are they going to buy more treasuries?
@UW_Doog_Bot -what's your take relative to the supply side? Right now, demand is low given nobody is doing shit...therefore prices are remaining low as well. Eventually though, people will get back to normal and they are going to be competing over the same relative supply with paper that has been devalued. Or at least that's how my peabrain sees it.
On a micro level, there's going to be some SCREAMING deals out there in the next few months. People who have lost their jobs will be ditching their toys - ATVs, boats, cars in order to buy groceries and keep their homes. A $1200 check signed by Donald J. Trump doesn't cover a $400 per month boat payment for very long (in fact, 3 months....MAFF!!).
Buy Buy buy!
Deserves long form response which I won't do on mobile so put a pin in it until Monday. Generally though, yeah inflation, but there's a lot of deflationary pressure AND there's a soaring demand for dollars internationally so don't expect the cpi to move much.
Buy buy buy BUT buy assets that will be accessible to an international market flush with dollars. Gold can be wonky bc it takes one regime change(hello NK) and the market can go sideways as people dump it to get out or buy a ton to smuggle.
The dow is going to soar when all those dollars circulate back in from overseas holding is what I see.
Just my opinions though, place your bets where you see them.
Comments
"These aren't bad people."
1) hot chicks
2) Patagonia
3) corruption
4) them getting clown stomped in their own backyard by England. Oof
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-3000-this-pattern-suggests-a-70-surge-from-here-makes-sense-2020-04-23
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-3000-this-pattern-suggests-a-70-surge-from-here-makes-sense-2020-04-23
Like winter, inflation is coming. It's coming but it's about 18 months out. The Throbber has an acquaintance who closely follows T-Bills and gold prices and a bunch of other shit and he thinks it will be 12 months.
There's always crazy ass gold bugs out there - but this tim, there's really no alternative to the massive printing of paper by the Fed. China is kind of fucked - how are they going to buy more treasuries?
@UW_Doog_Bot -what's your take relative to the supply side? Right now, demand is low given nobody is doing shit...therefore prices are remaining low as well. Eventually though, people will get back to normal and they are going to be competing over the same relative supply with paper that has been devalued. Or at least that's how my peabrain sees it.
On a micro level, there's going to be some SCREAMING deals out there in the next few months. People who have lost their jobs will be ditching their toys - ATVs, boats, cars in order to buy groceries and keep their homes. A $1200 check signed by Donald J. Trump doesn't cover a $400 per month boat payment for very long (in fact, 3 months....MAFF!!).
Buy Buy buy!
1) Maradona
2) Cocaine
Buy buy buy BUT buy assets that will be accessible to an international market flush with dollars. Gold can be wonky bc it takes one regime change(hello NK) and the market can go sideways as people dump it to get out or buy a ton to smuggle.
The dow is going to soar when all those dollars circulate back in from overseas holding is what I see.
Just my opinions though, place your bets where you see them.