Numbers, math, facts, etc.
Comments
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I don't know shit.RoadTrip said:Grundle, what's your basic assessment of where we stand today? Can we even compare where we are as a country to the rest of the world? Wouldn't you say the actual infection # is significantly higher in reality thus the mortality rate is considerably lower than .3?
I'd assumed exposure and infection back in March was much higher than numbers now available bear out. A national infection rate of around 15% seems consistent between various sources I've seen, higher of course in hot spots. A 0.3% fatality rate, while orders of magnitude better than the original grims of 2% or more, is still pretty bad, quite honestly. That number also jives with the earliest, most optimistic predictions. I think that Stanford guy had it around 0.25%.
I've plowed through a bunch of books on Spanish Flu and influenza-like pandemics in the last several books. None since and including SpanFlu were halted by a vaccine. Best info I could find on SARS was that vaccine trials were halted in 2012, nine years after the epidemic. If someone has better info, pleased to beings shown to be wrong. Of course, the medical industry has advanced a lot in 17 years. Still, I'm pessimistic on the prospects for a highly effective vaccine, and unfortunately, mainstream messaging has pegged reopening to a vaccine.
A common thread on the last pandemics, they just stop at some point. They run a certain course and then recede to a background disease, except for the particular SpanFlu strain, which disappeared. If I remember correctly, Philadelphia went from apocalyptic numbers to next to nothing over the course of around 2-3 weeks.
One prediction I still stand behind, is that eventually some pre-existing resistance, or vulnerability, will be found on this one. Genetic, crossover immunity, the Vitamin D thing, or something else all together. Best case would be Vitamin D, that is actionable. The rest is roll of the dice. -
Thanks
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I've thought about that too.
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“Fist-her-bottom” is your source?GrundleStiltzkin said:I've thought about that too.
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Not entirely sure how to read this chart or how he's massaged data. -
He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
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Every Friday I get a pep talk from my wife before entering the grocery store. The two arguments we have got in at the store over the months were both started by her. We're on our third store. All good. The mask doesn't bother her but the bags do. A lot. They won't bag if you bring reusable in which is what they want because Cali charges for new bags every week. She pointed out that they were all over our groceries so put them in the damn bag. Two tellers ended up arguing with her at which point I said - the proper response would have been to nod your head and agree and go on with your business. (I've been married 35 years) not double up and start yelling.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
For that our 300 bucks a week goes elsewhere
